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Investor Alert

Please note: The articles listed below contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate fund performance page.

Americans Take 3-Trillion-Mile Road Trip, Dollar Corrects and Commodities Rebound
May 8, 2015

Press Releases:
Ralph Aldis Named U.S. Metals and Mining Top Gun
U.S. Global Investors Announces Quarterly Results Webcast

By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

The busy summer travel season is at our doorstep, starting this Mother’s Day weekend, and with that comes stronger fuel demand.

Back in March I shared the fact that Americans drove a record 3.05 trillion miles on U.S. highways in January 2015 for the 12-month period, with even more expected this year. Now the International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed that international passenger traffic in March rose 7 percent from the same time a year ago. Except for Africa, every region around the globe recorded year-over-year increases in air traffic.

Americans Driving and Flying More

This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices reached a 2015 high, rising above $60 before cooling to just below that. This marks the eighth straight week of gains.

Investment banking advisory firm Evercore makes the case that the recent oil recovery is closely following the average trajectory of six previous cycles between 1986 and 2009. Although no one can predict the future with full certainty, this is indeed constructive for prices as well as the industry.

WTI-Crude-is-Closely-Tracking-the-Average-of-the-Previous-Bottoms
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Because oil remains in oversupply, the recent rally owes a lot to currency moves. The U.S. dollar, which has weighed heavily on commodities for around nine months, declined to its lowest point since mid-January. We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil—not to mention gold, copper and other important commodities—much-needed breathing room.

The oil rig count continued to drop in April and is now at a five-year low. According to Baker Hughes, 976 rigs were still operating at the end of the month, down 11 percent from 1,100 in March and 47 percent from 1,835 in April 2014. Eleven closed this week alone. This spectacular plunge has had the obvious effect of curbing output and helping oil begin its recovery from a low of $44 per barrel in January. Production appears to have peaked in mid-March at 9.42 million barrels per day and is now showing signs of rolling over.

As I’ve mentioned before, a price reversal historically has occurred between six and nine months following a drop in the rig count. The number of rigs operating peaked in October and oil started to bottom in January.

Even though domestic oil inventories still stand at near-record levels—according to the Department of Energy’s weekly report, they’re at their highest level for this time of year in at least 80 years—the rate at which storage facilities are being filled is beginning to slow.

For the first time since November 2014, stockpiles declined at Cushing, Oklahoma, the nation’s largest storage facility and the pricing point for WTI.

Net Free Credit Hits Another Record Low
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China Continues to Stimulate Its Economy with Weak PMI Trend

Like oil, select industrial metals are making a welcome resurgence. Both zinc and copper have risen above their 50-day moving averages, with copper staging its strongest rally in about a decade.

Net Free Credit Hits Another Record Low
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Besides the dollar depreciation, much of this growth derives from the hope that manufacturing in China, the world’s biggest purchaser of copper, is set to pick up. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI fell for the second consecutive month in April to 48.9, which indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector. But global investors and commodity traders are optimistic that China’s central bank will launch a fresh round of fiscal stimulus to spur purchasing and manufacturing. I’ve observed in the past that the Asian country is quick to respond to economic indicators such as the purchasing managers’ index.

Because of its ubiquity in building construction, electronic products and transportation equipment, copper is a useful barometer of economic growth.

Several mining companies that have exposure to the red metal are performing well year-to-date. Colorado-based Newmont Mining Corporation is up 38 percent for the year; Australia-based Northern Star Resources, 40 percent. We own both names in our Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX).
Agribusiness stocks have also drawn investors’ attention lately, as mergers and acquisitions (M&A) chatter has intensified.

Today, Syngenta, the giant Swiss producer of not only seeds but also herbicides and insecticides, formally turned down a $45 billion takeover by rival Monsanto. As I’ve discussed before, such offers and deals have typically made the stock of the company being considered for purchase more attractive.

Which Countries Would Suffer the Most if Greece Defaulted on Its Debt
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We own both Syngenta, up 33 percent year-to-date, and Monsanto in our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX).

 

Ramped-up M&A activity has also in the past suggested that a bottom has been or will soon be reached. We saw this in the oil industry, with Halliburton acquiring Baker Hughes last November and Royal Dutch Shell taking over rival BG Group in April. It’s déjà vu all over again, as Yogi Berra quipped.

Several times before, I’ve reflected on the mind-boggling amounts of minerals and metals that are required to raise a child. We’re talking millions of pounds of materials per person per lifetime.  Even so, we sometimes forget just how much of our daily lives depend on oil, metals, crops and other raw materials.

But this Sunday, remember that just as essential to raising a child is a mother’s love and dedication—the greatest and most priceless resource in the world.     

Happy Mothers Day

Index Summary

  • The major market indices finished mixed this week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.93 percent. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.37 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.04 percent. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index rose 0.56 percent this week.
  • The Hang Seng Composite lost 2.08 percent this week; while Taiwan fell 1.30 percent and the KOSPI fell 1.96 percent.
  • The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points to 2.15 percent.

Time-Tested History of No Drama. Explore NEARX

Domestic Equity Market

The S&P 500 ended the week higher, up 0.4 percent on solid jobs data for the month of April.

S&P 500 Economic Sectors
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Strengths

  • Financials outperformed this week as the 10-year Treasury yield increased sharply, leading to a steeper yield curve. The S&P 500 Financials Sector Index rose 1.59 percent this week.
  • U.S. factory orders for the month of March came in slightly above expectations this week. This is the first rise since last July and could benefit industrial companies.
  • As mentioned above, the 10-year yield shot up this week, revealing further signs of strength in the U.S. economy. With more investors leaving risk-free assets, it looks as though equities could see increased inflows.

Weaknesses

  • Telecommunications was the worst performing sector this week as investors, seeing strength in the domestic economy, moved into more cyclical areas. The S&P 500 Telecommunication Services Sector Index fell 1.44 percent this week.
  • Energy stocks underperformed this week and investors were quick to take profits off the table. The S&P 500 Energy Sector Index fell 1.15 percent this week.
  • The U.S. trade balance came in well below expectations for the month of March. Companies with significant foreign exposure are being negatively affected by the strong U.S. dollar, reducing the export competiveness of domestic companies.

Opportunities

Employment-Cost-Index-Still-Showing-Strength
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Inflation-Expectation-Indicates-Global-Growth
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  • The Employment Cost Index spiked up this week, revealing stronger signs of inflationary pressures in the domestic market. Higher wages could translate into more spending power, which should benefit consumer-based stocks.
  • Inflation expectations are also on the rise, as indicated by the recent breakout in the 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate. This indicator shows that investors have a positive view on the future of the economic environment.
  • The results of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for the month of May will be released next week. If the reading comes in strong, consumer-oriented stocks could be a beneficiary.

Threats

  • Employers are planning to cut roughly 62,000 jobs in April, citing falling oil prices as the main reason for the cuts. While cheap oil is beneficial to global growth in some ways, it does take a toll on energy-leveraged industries.
  • This week we heard Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warn that equities are overvalued. Regardless of whether or not this statement is correct, it has certainly had an effect on market sentiment.
  • Looking at the week ahead, the U.S. Empire State manufacturing survey data is set to be released for the month of May. Since the previous data point was surprisingly weak, investors may want to monitor next week’s release with caution.
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A Blog by Frank Holmes, C.E.O. and Chief Investment Officer

The Economy and Bond Market

U.S. and European stocks rebounded on the monthly U.S. employment report after global markets slumped on uncertainty over the U.K. general election and Greece's future in the eurozone. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's comments about high valuations also eroded equity prices midweek. Bonds had a volatile week with the yield on the U.S. 10-year note closing out at 2.14 percent, down from an intra-week high of 2.24 percent.

Strengths

  • The jobs report revealed that the labor market has started to heal after the weak showing in the first quarter. The April jobs report came in line with estimates, with job gains of 223,000 for the month versus the prior month’s tally of 85,000, which was revised lower from the original 126,000. After a recent run of weak economic readings, this is a very positive report for those who began to worry that the economy’s loss of momentum in the first quarter was more than just a temporary pause.
  • The unemployment rate went down one tick to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent the month before, and down from 6.7 percent in April 2014. The professional and business services, health care and construction industries were big jobs producers in April, with oil and gas following the expected negative path and manufacturing little changed.
  • Eurozone retail purchasing managers’ index (PMI) recorded its highest reading in 10 months at 49.5 for April, up from 48.6 in March.

Weaknesses

Inflation-Expectation-Indicates-Global-Growth
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  • The U.S. trade deficit exploded in March to $51.4 billion, a six-year high. This was much more than the $41.7 billion economists expected, according to Bloomberg. It's the largest deficit since October 2008. The resolution of the West Coast port strikes led to a sharp rise in inbound cargo volumes. The surge in imports makes it likely that first-quarter GDP growth will be revised down to a modest contraction.
  • The labor force remains shrunken historically, and don’t blame it all on retired baby boomers. Even among Americans in their prime working-age years—25 to 54 years old—participation has dropped. The rate among that group stood at 80.9 percent in March. By comparison, it averaged 83.5 percent between 1990 and the late-2007 start of the recession. A rise in participation by this cohort is essential for a sustained economic recovery.
  • U.S. government debt markets have been roiled recently by a sharp sell-off in German bunds. The yield on 10-year bunds closed at 0.59 percent on Thursday, up from an all-time low of 0.075 percent on April 20. This episode unsettled markets because German government bonds, like their U.S. counterparts, are widely viewed as ultra-safe. Sudden spikes raise concerns that the bonds’ value can fluctuate wildly even when there is relatively little market news, adding uncertainty to what has long been seen as a risk-free trade.

German-Bund-Swings-Have-Roiled-US-Government-Debt
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Opportunities

  • Consumer optimism rose in April to 95.9, its second highest level since 2007. Moreover, the Sentiment Index recorded a higher average level during the past five months than any other time since May 2004. With next week’s May release, a continuation in this trend would be positive for economic momentum.
  • Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras forecast a happy end to fraught negotiations with creditors on a cash-for-reform deal. The chairman of eurozone finance ministers also said talks were making progress. With a Greek loan repayment of 744 million euros due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on May 12, the announcement of a resolution would be a positive surprise to the markets.
  • The absence of wage pressure in the latest employment report suggests that the Federal Reserve will not be in a rush to take its long-awaited first step in raising short-term interest rates. Many experts once expected the Fed to move in June, but the consensus has recently shifted to September or beyond as the probable beginning of any gradual tightening effort by the central bank.

Threats

  • Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week as interest rates jumped. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally-adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 4.6 percent in the week ended May 1. Next week’s results are highly anticipated and a consecutive negative reading would create concern about the sustainability of the housing recovery.
  • The latest Empire State manufacturing survey widely disappointed, posting the first negative reading since December. If next week’s print disappoints, concerns that the first-quarter manufacturing slump was not simply weather-induced will once again flare up.
  • According to UBS, there are three signs that we are in a late stage of the U.S. credit cycle. First, corporate credit (particularly via the bond market) has come to dominate domestic credit after a prolonged period of robust corporate issuance during which households have de-levered. Overall this has resulted in a steady increase in the size of the private credit market relative to GDP. Second, credit quality has deteriorated and continues to do so as the number of lower quality credits coming to the primary market has increased. Third, illiquidity in the secondary high-yield market is worsening not just in energy, but also in industrials. These indicators point to a turn in the credit cycle, but it may take a trigger such as the Fed or a material slowdown in global growth to mark a definitive turning point.

2015 Earnings Webcast

Gold Market

For the week, spot gold closed at $1,188.38 up $9.79 per ounce, or 0.83 percent. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, lost 1.54 percent. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index lost 0.54 percent for the week.

Date Event Survey Actual Prior
May- 6 U.S. ADP Employment Change 200K 169K 189K
May- 7 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 278K 265K 262K
May- 8 U.S. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 228K 223K 126K
May- 13 China Retail Sales YoY 10.40% -- 10.20%
May- 13 German CPI YoY 0.40% -- 0.40%
May- 14 U.S. PPI Final Demand YoY -0.80% -- -0.80%
May- 14 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 273K -- 265K

Strengths

Dollar's Rally May Reverse
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  • Gold traders were bullish for a second week on speculation a weaker dollar may support gold demand.
  • As the U.S. dollar has seen sustained retrenchment lately, the “smart money” is taking the bullish-dollar bets off, as CFTC data show the value of positive bets in the futures pits have fallen to four-month lows. 
  • Bullionvault’s Gold Investor Insight rose in April as clients added the most metal in 20 months.

Weaknesses

  • Investors sold the most gold from bullion-backed funds in anticipation of this week’s employment report potentially showing stronger job growth.
  • Gold has posted three straight months of losses, the longest slump since December 2013. The latest payrolls report, which showed a net increase of 223,000 for April, added to recent pressure on gold.
  • Societe Generale deemed gold an unreliable hedge against geopolitical risk saying the metal’s performance in periods of regional military conflicts is mixed at best.

Opportunities

Maturing-Treasuries-in-the-Federal-Reserve-Portfolio-Over-the-Next-30-Years
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Maturing-Treasuries-in-the-Federal-Reserve-Portfolio-Over-the-Next-20-Months
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  • RBC published a piece looking at the next gold price cycle post an initial Fed rate hike. The firm retained a $1,250 per ounce price for 2015 in anticipation of a stronger price in the second half of the year. Further, RBC believes an initial Fed rate hike has already been priced into gold at $1,150 to $1,175. The firm also believes key Asian physical markets are likely to remain supportive, and that if the initial rate hike were to be pushed back into 2016 we would see a significant upward move in gold.
  • Did you think quantitative easing (QE) had ended? In spite of having “ended” QE in October of last year, the Fed has continued to purchase about $30 billion of securities per month in order to offset maturities and reinvestments and keep its balance sheet constant. Cornerstone Macro notes the Fed will face a sort of “balance sheet cliff” next year, whereby a lot of Treasury securities in its portfolio will start maturing (see top chart below). The Fed is very unlikely to go off such a cliff and it will most likely “reverse taper” the cessation of reinvestments.  Note that the Fed’s portfolio of bonds maturing in 2017 and 2018 surges, as shown in the second chart below, which means that Fed purchases of Treasuries and MBS securities are likely to continue for a lot longer.
  • According to BCA, gold-mining stocks can increase in value despite the price of gold remaining range-bound. Given current low gold prices, companies have been cutting costs, reducing debt and giving serious thought to improving their allocation of capital. This is leading to increased M&A activity among gold miners looking to acquire quality assets. These mergers should result in rationalization of production and deliver earnings growth to survivors.

Maturing-Treasuries-in-the-Federal-Reserve-Portfolio-Over-the-Next-20-Months
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Threats

  • South Africa’s biggest mining unions are seeing who will blink first as pay talks with gold producers become the latest battleground for membership. Both the National Union of Mineworkers and its fastest growing rival, the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union, are overdue in presenting their demands to companies including AngloGold Ashanti and Sibanye Gold. The trade union that submits its demands last may get an opportunity to meet or exceed the demands of the other or differentiate its demands.
  • Governments around the world are making it more difficult to save and transact with cash in their latest attempts to financially suppress their citizens. Their goal is to force citizens to deposit cash and charge interest as well as having total control over the money on deposit. In France, individuals will not be allowed to make cash payments exceeding 1,000 euros. Additionally, cash deposits and withdrawals totaling more than 10,000 per month will be reported to the anti-fraud and money laundering agency. Spain has prohibited cash transactions over 2,500 euros. In Sweden and Denmark the use of cash is being steadily eliminated. In Israel, individuals and businesses are still allowed to make small cash transactions, but eventually all transactions will be converted to electronic forms of payment.
  • The U.S. trade balance was much weaker than expected, with the deficit expanding to $51.4 billion in March from $35.9 billion. As a result of the weaker trade data, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has cut its Q1 GDP tracking estimate to -0.5 percent, down from 0.1 percent.

Shareholder-Report-2015

Energy and Natural Resources Market

Current-Oil-Price-Rally-Versus-Previous-Oil-Price-Recoveries
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Strengths

  • Construction materials stocks outperformed this week due to strong earnings reports from the group. The S&P Supercomposite Construction and Materials Index rose 3.58 percent this week.
  • Fertilizer stocks outperformed this week. The group was primarily boosted by news that Syngenta, an agribusiness that markets seeds and agrochemicals, rejected a takeover bid from Monsanto. The Bloomberg Leaders Fertilizers Index closed up 1.94 percent this week.
  • Clean energy stocks rallied this week, boosted by its close link to the technology space. The NASDAQ Clean Edge U.S. Liquid Series Index rose 1.66 percent this week.

Weaknesses

  • Canadian energy stocks took a hit this week after the country elected the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP). The Alberta NDP is a left-leaning party that intends to increase royalties and taxes on energy companies. The S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index fell 4.32 percent this week.
  • Domestic oil producers underperformed this week as investors took profits off the table. The S&P Supercomposite Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index fell 3.08 percent this week.
  • Master Limited Partnership (MLP) stocks and dividend plays underperformed this week as the 10-year Treasury yield made a significant breakout. The Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index fell 2.8 percent this week.

Opportunities

  • U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to decline by nearly 4 million barrels next week, as producers continue to pull back on drilling activity and refineries ramp-up the production of summer gasoline blends ahead of the driving season.
  • According to research service Amber Waves, “U.S. agricultural exports to China doubled from 2008 to 2012, growing to more than $25 billion in annual sales. China surpassed Japan, Mexico and Canada to become the top export market for U.S. farm products. The share of U.S. agricultural exports destined for China rose from about 2-3 percent in the 1990s to 16-18 percent during 2012-14.”
  • The energy relationship between Russia and China will be a big part of discussions during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent support for a gas pipeline from East Siberia to China increases the chances that the two countries will sign new energy agreements, according to Senior Research Fellow Keun-Wook Paik at the Oxford Institute for Energy.

Threats

  • The outlook is weakening for Canadian oil-sands investment as Alberta’s new NDP government will no longer favor oil-sands development (including a royalties hike and stricter environmental policies). Amongst our coverage, Teck Resources’ Fort Hills and Frontier oil-sands projects in Alberta could be impacted with this change.
  • Saskatchewan, Canada’s biggest agricultural province, imposed a temporary ban last month on certain investors acquiring farmland. The government’s concern is that surging land values that are fuelled by pension-fund investment – while a boon to retiring growers – deters younger growers, boosts agricultural debt and threatens to create more tenant farmers.
  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed outbreaks of the highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza virus on more than 100 Midwest farms since early March. Of the hardest hit has been Minnesota, the country's top turkey-producing state, along with Iowa, the number-one egg producer.

Uncover the patterns in commodity returns

Emerging Markets

 

Strengths

  • Hungarian equities outperformed this week as the central bank minutes revealed that policymakers are more dovish than expected. Furthermore, industrial production for the country came in much stronger than expected. The Budapest Stock Exchange Index closed up 0.58 percent this week.
  • Greek equities rallied this week as investors remain optimistic over the government’s ability to reach a resolution with its European counterparts. The Athens Stock Exchange General Index rose 1.95 percent this week.
  • This week Russian equities rose for the third straight week. It seems investors are becoming increasingly confident that the worst is over for the nation. The MICEX Index closed up 1.20 percent this week.

Weaknesses

  • Chinese equities pulled back this week as investors locked in profits, ending an eight week rally for the A-shares market. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index fell 5.31 percent this week.
  • Thai stocks underperformed this week as the Asian economy struggles to recover after its contraction last year. The Thailand SET Index fell 1.06 percent this week.
  • This week South Korean equities retreated after the country’s finance minister stated that a weaker Japanese yen will hurt exports. The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index fell 1.96 percent this week.

Opportunities

Don't-Miss-Buying-Opportunities-as-Chinese-Bull-Market-Only-in-Mid-Life
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Don't-Miss-Buying-Opportunities-as-Chinese-Bull-Market-Only-in-Mid-Life
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Don't-Miss-Buying-Opportunities-as-Chinese-Bull-Market-Only-in-Mid-Life
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  • The Turkish lira’s real effective exchange rate has started to decline. Historically, the central bank has adjusted the policy rate to maintain the strength of the lira. Therefore, the fact that the real exchange is beginning to decline in response to the recent rate cuts provides an opportunity for the central bank to raise rates. Doing so should benefit the lira.
  • Russia’s HSBC composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) jumped above the 50 mark for the month of April. The unexpected strength of this data point shows that Russia’s economy may be recovering more quickly than anticipated.
  • China’s April economic data to be released next week, especially industrial production, could remind investors of unfinished government policy tasks, particularly of further easing. This includes both monetary and fiscal, given the grimly anemic domestic demand trends revealed by a recent contraction in imports.  From a full-cycle perspective, China’s ongoing bull market is likely halfway through, whether in price appreciation or valuation expansion, and therefore this week’s correction in the A-shares and H-shares markets should be viewed as opportunities for orderly accumulation.

Threats

  • Brazil’s HSBC manufacturing PMI fell once again for the month of April as seen in the chart below. The three-month moving average reveals the significant weakness in the country’s economic prospects.

Brazils-Manufacturing-Purchasing-MAnagers-Index-Weakens-in-April
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  • With Greece and the rest of the eurozone still unsuccessful in coming to a resolution on the debt crisis, there remains considerable room for volatility in Greek markets in the near future.
  • Further contraction in Hong Kong’s March retail sales, especially for luxury items, might validate investors’ concern over a secular decline in tourist arrivals from mainland China. This is due to anticorruption movements and a preference of the Chinese middle class to travel farther from home. This could continue to weigh on investor sentiment towards Hong Kong retailers and Macau casinos.

Uncover the patterns in commodity returns

Leaders and Laggards

 

Weekly Performance
Index Close Weekly
Change($)
Weekly
Change(%)
DJIA 18,191.11 +167.05 +0.93%
S&P 500 2,116.10 +7.81 +0.37%
S&P Energy 597.81 -6.94 -1.15%
S&P Basic Materials 323.43 +1.97 +0.61%
Nasdaq 5,003.55 -1.84 -0.04%
Russell 2000 1,234.93 +6.82 +0.56%
Hang Seng Composite Index 3,889.04 -82.77 -2.08%
Korean KOSPI Index 2,085.52 -41.65 -1.96%
S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Index 165.38 -2.92 -1.73%
XAU 72.47 -0.72 -0.98%
Gold Futures 1,187.70 +13.20 +1.12%
Oil Futures 59.49 +0.34 +0.57%
Natural Gas Futures 2.86 +0.09 +3.17%
10-Yr Treasury Bond 2.15 +0.04 +1.66%
 
Monthly Performance
Index Close Monthly
Change($)
Monthly
Change(%)
DJIA 18,191.11 +288.60 +1.61%
S&P 500 2,116.10 +34.20 +1.64%
S&P Energy 597.81 +24.16 +4.21%
S&P Basic Materials 323.43 +13.42 +4.33%
Nasdaq 5,003.55 +52.73 +1.07%
Russell 2000 1,234.93 -27.78 -2.20%
Hang Seng Composite Index 3,889.04 -332.01 -14.83%
Korean KOSPI Index 2,085.52 +26.26 +1.28%
S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Index 165.38 +3.28 +2.02%
XAU 72.47 +4.39 +6.45%
Gold Futures 1,187.70 -15.40 -1.28%
Oil Futures 59.49 +9.07 +17.99%
Natural Gas Futures 2.86 +0.25 +9.35%
10-Yr Treasury Bond 2.15 +0.24 +12.75%
 
Quarterly Performance
Index Close Quarterly
Change($)
Quarterly
Change(%)
DJIA 18,191.11 +366.82 +2.06%
S&P 500 2,116.10 +60.63 +2.95%
S&P Energy 597.81 +9.83 +1.67%
S&P Basic Materials 323.43 +10.22 +3.26%
Nasdaq 5,003.55 +259.15 +5.46%
Russell 2000 1,234.93 +29.46 +2.44%
Hang Seng Composite Index 3,889.04 +539.48 +16.11%
Korean KOSPI Index 2,085.52 +130.00 +6.65%
S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Index 165.38 -16.96 -9.30%
XAU 72.47 -4.45 -5.79%
Gold Futures 1,187.70 -47.70 -3.86%
Oil Futures 59.49 +7.80 +15.09%
Natural Gas Futures 2.86 +0.29 +11.05%
10-Yr Treasury Bond 2.15 +0.19 +9.75%

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.   For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637).   Read it carefully before investing.  Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio.

The Emerging Europe Fund invests more than 25 percent of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries. The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile.

Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.

Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5 percent to 10 percent of your portfolio in these sectors.

Bond funds are subject to interest-rate risk; their value declines as interest rates rise. Tax-exempt income is federal income tax free. A portion of this income may be subject to state and local income taxes, and if applicable, may subject certain investors to the Alternative Minimum Tax as well. The Near-Term Tax Free Fund may invest up to 20% of its assets in securities that pay taxable interest. Income or fund distributions attributable to capital gains are usually subject to both state and federal income taxes. The Near-Term Tax Free Fund may be exposed to risks related to a concentration of investments in a particular state or geographic area. These investments present risks resulting from changes in economic conditions of the region or issuer.

Investing in real estate securities involves risks including the potential loss of principal resulting from changes in property value, interest rates, taxes and changes in regulatory requirements.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Some link(s) above may be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

These market comments were compiled using Bloomberg and Reuters financial news.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings as a percentage of net assets as of 3/31/15:

Baker Hughes, Inc.: Global Resources Fund, 0.23%
Northern Star Resources Ltd: Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 5.52%; World Precious Minerals Fund, 0.59%
Halliburton Co.: 0.0%
Royal Dutch Shell plc: Global Resources Fund, 2.97%
BG Group plc: 0.0%
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd: Global Resources Fund, 0.19%; Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 2.68%; World Precious Minerals Fund, 0.88%
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd: Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 0.07%; World Precious Minerals Fund, 0.08%
Barrick Gold Corp.: Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 0.06%; World Precious Minerals Fund, 0.06%
Goldcorp, Inc.: 0.0%
Gold Fields Ltd: Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 1.31%; World Precious Minerals Fund, 0.32%
Kinross Gold Corp.: 0.0%
Newmont Mining Corp.: Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 1.10%; World Precious Minerals Fund, 0.06%
Yamana Gold, Inc.: Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 0.87%; World Precious Minerals Fund, 0.23%
Sibanye Gold: 0.0%
Syngenta AG: Global Resources Fund, 3.07%
Monsanto Co.: Global Resources Fund, 3.17%
Teck Resources Ltd: 0.0%

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry.
The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks.
The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.
The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months.
The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange.
The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver.
The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar.
The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks.
The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.
The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns.
The Employment Cost Index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.
The University of Michigan Confidence Index is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The report, released on the tenth of each month, gives a snapshot of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money.
The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.
The Mortgage Bankers Association Market Composite Index measures mortgage loan application volume.
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey is sent out to companies in the manufacturing industry in New York state. The survey provides an early indication of business conditions, such as price levels and employment trends, and it gives an indication of changes in sentiment. The survey is produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is released around the middle of the month.
The S&P Supercomposite Construction Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index.
The Bloomberg Global Leaders Fertilizers Index is a capitalization weighted index comprised of companies from the fertilizers industry.
The NASDAQ Clean Edge U.S. Liquid Series Index is a modified market capitalization-weighted index designed to track the performance of clean-energy companies that are publicly traded in the U.S.
The S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index is a constrained market capitalization-weighted index that consists of Canadian energy sector companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
The S&P Supercomposite Oil and Gas Exploration & Production Index consists of all oil and gas exploration and production stocks included in the S&P Supercomposite 1500 Index.
The Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index, comprised of 25 energy infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships, is a liquid, midstream-focused subset of the Alerian MLP Index (NYSE: AMZ). The index, whose constituents earn the majority of their cash flow from the transportation, storage, and processing of energy commodities, provides investors with an unbiased benchmark for the infrastructure component of this emerging asset class.
The Budapest Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index adjusted for free float. The index tracks the daily price-only performance of large, actively traded shares on the Budapest Stock Exchange.
The Athens Stock Exchange General Index is a capitalization-weighted index of Greek stocks listed on the Athens Stock Exchange.
The MICEX Index is the real-time cap-weighted Russian composite index. It comprises 30 most liquid stocks of Russian largest and most developed companies from 10 main economy sectors.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

 

 

 

 

 

Share “Americans Take 3-Trillion-Mile Road Trip, Dollar Corrects and Commodities Rebound”

Net Asset Value
as of 10/16/2017

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $5.85 -0.01 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $7.92 -0.15 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $6.43 -0.15 China Region Fund USCOX $11.62 -0.01 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $7.12 No Change All American Equity Fund GBTFX $24.23 -0.04 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $20.70 0.13 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.23 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change