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This Could Be a No-Brainer Gold Buying Opportunity

Please note: The articles listed below contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate fund performance page.

September 29, 2017

Press Release: U.S. Global Investors Launches the U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (TSX: GOGO)

By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

GoGo Gold

This week I was pleased to be the keynote speaker at the Denver Gold Show in beautiful Colorado Springs, Colorado. Attendance was strong, sentiment was up and my presentation on quant gold investing was very well received.

Frank Holmes keynote Speaker at The Denver Gold Show

As I’ve explained before, our firm uses quantamentals in our gold investing process, combining old-fashioned, bottom-up stock picking with big data and machine learning. This allows us to screen for the best possible producers with the most attractive balance sheets. We prefer miners that have a proven track record of sustainable profitability even when precious metal prices are down.

It’s these quantamentals that went into the creation of our newest quant ETF, our first to launch in Canada.

Today I was thrilled to be back in my hometown of Toronto, where team members from Galileo and I had the privilege of opening the Toronto Stock Exchange. The TSX, as you may know, has a long history of being the world’s premiere marketplace for mining stocks, and in 2016, 57 percent of the world’s financing for mining companies was done on the TSX. It’s only fitting, then, that our new ETF is traded there.

I urge you to listen to the ETF Trends webcast in which Tom Lydon and I discuss the gold market today and the factors we use in picking the strongest gold stocks.

Prepare for Gold to Get Sloppy, but Backdrop Remains Strong into Year-End

Earlier this week, North Korea said it was interpreting some of President Donald Trump’s comments as a declaration of war, insisting it can freely shoot down American military planes even if they’re not flying in North Korean airspace. As everyone is pointing out, the country has made similar threats in the past, but with Trump as president, there could be an added level of unpredictability.

Ordinarily, we would expect geopolitical risk of this scale to boost the price of gold on increased safe haven demand. Instead, the yellow metal struggled this week to extend the gains it’s made in 2017 so far.

Markets are closed but shopping is in during Chinas Golden Week

The main contributor to the pullback is likely the fact that markets in China will be closed next week in observance of Golden Week. Think of Golden Week as China’s Fourth of July—if the Fourth of July lasted for several days. This year marks the 68th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

Given that the country is the world’s largest gold market, the metal has in the past depreciated leading up to the week-long celebration. If you remember from last year, gold was knocked down significantly after someone dumped as much as $2.25 billion of the metal in the futures market, and on October 2, gold suffered its biggest one-day loss in three years. This week it fell 1.33 percent.

Gold price has traded down prior to chinas Golden Week in October
click to enlarge

As you can see above, gold immediately rallied following the correction in 2014 and 2015, but it continued to drop in 2013 and 2016.

There’s no telling what it might do this year, of course, but I believe this could be a good buying opportunity, as the fourth-quarter Indian wedding season has historically brought with it higher gold prices on stronger demand. The backdrop looks favorable for all metals, in fact, as we head into the final quarter of the year, with improving global economic and manufacturing activity suggesting demand could surge.

Granted, other factors besides Golden Week are putting pressure on gold right now. The U.S. dollar just had one of its best months of the year, and the real five-year Treasury yield turned positive. Keep your eyes on yields, though, because as soon as they turn negative again, gold could take off.

Then there’s the record-setting stock market, which might discourage some investors from seeking a safe haven. But I think it’s worth pointing out that gold has remarkably held its own during this bull run, closely keeping track with the S&P 500 Index in 2017. As of yesterday, the S&P 500 was up 11.1 percent year-to-date, gold 11.5 percent.

U.S. Ready to Reform Tax Code for First Time in More than 30 Years

Small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, were among the biggest winners immediately following the November election, the idea being that Trump’s “America first” policies would benefit smaller, domestic companies with less exposure to foreign markets the most.

This trade was put on hold somewhat as Trump’s pro-growth agenda repeatedly stalled in Congress. But renewed talks of tax reform this week excited investors, helping to push the Russell 2000 back into record-closing territory. For the 12-month period, the index of American small-cap stocks is beating the S&P 500 by nearly 3 percent.

Small cap stocks jump on tax return excitement
click to enlarge

The bottom line is that Congressional Republicans—and Trump—need this win after the multiple failed attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare. Tax reform should be much easier to achieve, as there seems to be greater consensus on what needs to be done.

Indeed, the tax code has not been fundamentally changed in more than 30 years. If Trump gets his way, the number of personal income tax brackets will fall from seven to three, with the top marginal rate lowered from 39.6 percent to 35 percent.

US tax code hasnt been overhauled in a generation
click to enlarge

The corporate tax rate, meanwhile, would be set at a more reasonable 20 percent, down from 35 percent—currently the highest rate in the world among developed economies. This should help U.S.-based firms become much more competitive, and ideally it would encourage multinationals to bring home the estimated $3.6 trillion in cash held overseas.

As I told Fox Business’ Liz Claman on her show recently, I’m very bullish right now, with global GDPs and the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) headed higher. U.S. tax reform should only encourage further growth, both here and abroad.

Stay Informed

Many exciting developments are coming down the pipeline! I’ll be traveling more, speaking to investors, executives and other business leaders. Make sure you’re subscribed to my award-winning CEO blog Frank Talk to stay in the loop!

   

How much do you know about Diwali

Index Summary

  • The major market indices finished up this week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.25 percent. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.67 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.07 percent. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index gained 2.78 percent this week.
  • The Hang Seng Composite lost 1.43 percent this week; while Taiwan was down 1.15 percent and the KOSPI rose 0.24 percent.
  • The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 8 basis points to 2.33 percent.

Domestic Equity Market

SP 500 Economic Sectors
click to enlarge

Strengths

  • Energy was the best performing sector of the week, increasing by 1.87 percent versus an overall increase of 0.63 percent for the S&P 500.
  • Applied Materials was the best performing stock for the week, increasing 9.04 percent.
  • Roku soared in its trading debut. The digital streaming hardware company debuted on the NYSE at $15.73, above its $14 a share IPO price. The stock gained throughout the day to finish at $21.60 a share.

Weaknesses

  • Utilities was the worst performing sector for the week, falling 0.47 percent versus an overall increase of 0.63 percent for the S&P 500.
  • Scana was the worst performing stock for the week, falling 12.19 percent.
  • Biotechnology firm Axovant announced that its test for a new Alzheimer drug failed. The company saw its stock tumble nearly 75 percent in trading Tuesday after announcing the news.

Opportunities

  • Intel launched the eighth-generation Core chips, part of the Coffee Lake family. The high-end i7 chip got an improvement, but Intel also beefed up the midrange i5, which now has six cores, and the lower-end i3, now with four. Additionally, Tesla will reportedly use Intel chips to power its cars' infotainment system. The company will no longer rely on Nvidia, and is seemingly already using Intel chips on more recent Model S and Model X vehicles, in addition to the new Model 3.
  • GoPro announced its new pocketable camera, the Hero6. It can record 4K video at 60 frames-per-second (fps), 2.7K resolution at 120fps, or 1080p at 240fps, and is already available for $499.
  • Goldman Sachs' move into Main Street lending is growing fast. Its new lending platform, Marcus, which targets prime borrowers with credit scores above 660 is issuing out loans at a fast pace, according to a new report by CB Insights. The report dissects the investment bank's broader strategy and shows Marcus issued $1 billion in personal loans more quickly than four other well-known financial technology startups, including LendingClub and Prosper.

Threats

  • Nike gave a cautious U.S. outlook in its earnings call this week. The company earned $0.57 a share, easily beating the $0.48 that Wall Street was expecting, but said it expected North American sales to continue to slide after falling 3 percent in the quarter.
  • Apple acknowledged that there is a problem with the iPhone 8's earpiece. The new phone makes a crackling noise during phone calls, and the company says that it is going to fix the issue — for the limited number of devices affected — in an upcoming update.
  • Fitch downgraded Deutsche Bank. The rating agency lowered Deutsche Bank's credit rating one notch to BBB+ and said, "The downgrades reflect continued pressure on Deutsche Bank's earnings, combined with prolonged implementation of its strategy."
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The Economy and Bond Market

 

Strengths

  • The final estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at 3.1 percent. This was slightly higher than the 3 percent expected by economists. The boost to growth came from increased consumer spending.
  • The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices surpassed their all-time closing highs in trading on Friday.
  • New orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in August and shipments maintained their upward trend, pointing to underlying strength in the economy despite an anticipated drag on growth from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Orders rose 1.7 percent in August versus the 1 percent expected increase.

Weaknesses

  • U.S. consumer confidence fell in September. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined to a reading of 119.8 this month from 120.4 in August.
  • Home sales dropped to an eight-month low in August due to the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, supporting the view that the storms would hurt economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said new home sales decreased 3.4 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units last month, which was the lowest level since December 2016. Sales were down 1.2 percent on a year-over-year basis in August.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved down to –0.31 in August from +0.03 in July as a result of production declines. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from July, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in August

Opportunities

  • The U.S. dollar’s rally gathered pace as President Donald Trump unveiled his latest tax reform plan. Dollar bulls are counting on a big boost to the economy if the tax cuts come into law anytime soon, which will nudge the Federal Reserve to not only raise interest rates again before year-end, but also stick to its plan of three more increases next year, according to Bloomberg Prophets’ Robert Burgess. All else being equal, higher rates tend to benefit a currency as they draw international investment.

Dollar rallies to highest since mid august on prospects for Trumps tax plan
click to enlarge

  • The latest details on the tax reform plan lower the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent and drop the top individual tax rate to 35 percent from 39.6 percent. It also consolidates the seven current tax brackets down to three, simplifying the system.
  • Monday's data is likely to show that the eurozone's unemployment rate is on the verge of breaking below 9 percent, which has historically coincided with acceleration in core inflation. On Thursday, the minutes of the European Central Bank’s board meeting earlier this month could offer further revelations on the central bank's plans to wind down quantitative easing.

Threats

  • Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund firm, said the Federal Reserve will cause problems by raising interest rates from historic lows. "The Fed is basing its moves on classic cyclical indicators and the desire to 'normalize' the balance sheet," Bridgewater Associates told clients in a private note, which was seen by Business Insider.
  • Hurricane related distortions will make it difficult to separate noise from signal in U.S. economic data. September's ISM surveys, manufacturing on Monday and non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the all-important nonfarm payrolls on Friday could come in on the soft-side due to the hurricanes.
  • The Tax Policy Center released the first major analysis of Trump's tax plan. The analysis shows the bulk of benefits from the plan would go to the top 1 percent of income earners in the U.S. while the plan would actually increase taxes on a segment of the middle class.

Gold Market

 

This week spot gold closed at $1,279.70, down $17.70 per ounce, or 1.36 percent. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 1.91 percent. Junior-tiered stocks outperformed seniors for the week, as the S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up by 0.21 percent. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar finished the week higher by 0.99 percent.

Date Event Survey Actual Prior
Sep-26 Hong Kong Exports YoY 7.1% 7.4% 7.3%
Sep-26 New Home Sales 585k 560k 580k
Sep-26 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 120.0 119.8 120.4
Sep-27 Durable Goods orders 1.0% 1.7% -6.8%
Sep-28 Germany CPI YoY 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Sep-28 GDP Annualized QoQ 3.0% 3.1% 3.0%

Sep-28

Initial Jobless Claims 270k 272k 260k
Sep-29 Eurozone CPI Core YoY 1.2% 1.1% 1.2%
Sep-29 Caixin China PMI Mfg 51.5 -- 51.6
Oct-2 ISM Manufacturing 57.9 -- 58.8
Oct-4 ADP Employment Change 150k -- 237k
Oct-5 Initial Jobless Claims 270k -- 272k
Oct-5 Durable Goods Orders -- -- 1.7%
Oct-6 Chaneg in Nonfarm Payrolls 88k -- 156k

Strengths

  • The best performing precious metal this week was palladium, up 1.67 percent. Palladium prices rose above platinum prices on expectations there may be a surge in gasoline engines from China before clamp downs on their use comes into effect.  Gold traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg maintained their bearish bias for a third week despite North Korean tensions escalating after our military show of force last weekend with fly-by of their airspace.
  • Despite gold having a lousy month with negative price action and a spike in volatility, to four-month highs seen in the metal, holdings in exchanged traded funds rose to their highest levels since last November.
  • At this week’s Denver Gold Form, Randal Oliphant noted that the industry may be reaching peak gold production as major new discoveries have waned over the last couple of decades, despite industry spending or changes in technology.

Weaknesses

  • The worst performing precious metal this week was platinum, down 2.20 percent. Platinum is suffering a continued loss of market share to palladium in the near-term play out.  Comments earlier in the week from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen sent gold lower. Yellen said that it would be imprudent to leave rates on hold until inflation reaches 2 percent this year. Her comments overshadowed the earlier heated North Korean war of words.

Gold falls metal tests 50 day avergae for first break in two months
click to enlarge

  • The reversal in gold prices took price levels down to the 50-day moving average where support levels seemed to hold through the remainder of the week.
  • Gold exports from Hong Kong to China have slowed.  For the first eight months of the year, imports are down 70 tonnes from the same measurement point of last year’s 485 tonnes.

Opportunities

  • Dennis Gartman, who successfully called the gold rally in 2017, is now forecasting gold will be “demonstrably higher,” rising to $1,400 per ounce in the coming months.  Gartman noted that the recent correction is a mere pullback prior to much higher gold prices.
  • Sentiment from both the Precious Metals Summit and the Denver Gold Group meetings over the past few weeks reflects an attitude of focus on brownfield projects around existing operations to extend mine lives. In addition, it appears that merger and acquisitions are going to be inevitable, with a focus on politically-safe jurisdictions.
  • Desjardins Securities recommended Wesdome Gold as a new buy along with Golden Star, which just commenced stoping at its Prestea Underground Mine.  Prestea is expected to achieve commercial production in the fourth quarter of this year.  In addition, Columbus Gold signed a definitive agreement to spin out its Nevada gold properties into a separate company later this year.  Columbus Gold’s other properties in French Guyana could be of interest to Nord Gold, its JV partner.

Threats

  • President Trump’s tax overhaul plan boosted the dollar this week and could potentially be a headwind to gold if corporate earnings rise due to reduced tax rates.
  • One Nation is threatening to form a bloc in the West Australian parliament to stop the government-proposed hike in the state’s gold royalty.  The government announced legislation to increase gold royalties from 2.5 percent to 3.75 percent when the spot price is above A$1,200.  Treasurer Ben Wyatt espoused the hike would be negligible, but the miners contend there will just be fewer jobs.
  • Morgan Stanley penned a report this week emphasizing the need for capital discipline in the gold mining space and highlighted that the industry needs to deploy capital into only the highest-return projects with low capital intensity that can still generate returns when prices fall.  They noted that at current capital intensity levels, a gold price of $1,350 an ounce is needed to cover the cost of capital.

Where does gold come from

Energy and Natural Resources Market

 

Strengths

  • Lumber was the best performing major commodity this week rising 2.16 percent. Lumber rallied as investors anticipated that the Trump-led tax plan proposal may accelerate the path toward the promised infrastructure development plan. Lumber is perceived as one commodity that may receive the largest boost from infrastructure development in the U.S.

The price of lumber is climbing
click to enlarge

  • The best performing sector this week was the S&P 1500 Paper and Forest Index. The index of major producers rose 0.63 percent on the back of rising lumber prices, as well as a sector upgrade by Credit Suisse analysts.
  • CVR Refining L.P., a major independent downstream limited partnership, was the best performing stock in the broader resource market this week. The stock rallied 8.24percent after the company announced that it is taking steps to unwind its short exposure to RINs, an exposure that numerous analysts flagged as risky earlier in the year.

Weaknesses

  • Steel was the worst performing major commodity this week dropping 1.05 percent. The industrial metal used in construction dropped after China announced early closures of numerous steel mills within its borders. China shuts down numerous steel mills during the winter months to reduce air pollution, however, the early closures are being perceived as a measure to reduce a supply glut.
  • The worst performing sector this week was the FTSE 350 Mining Index. The index fell 2.24 percent as base metals commodities were led lower by a drop in copper prices. Following the single best rally in copper prices since 2006, the hot commodity has begun to cool down as investors adjust to lower Chinese yuan values, and weaker industrial commodity prices.
  • The worst performing stock for the week was VBK Vereinigte BioEnergie AG. The German biofuel producer and distributor dropped 36.78 percent despite posting record quarterly financials. The stock dropped after management forecasts EBITDA could drop by as much as 40 percent next year due to uncertainty concerning possible distortions resulting from volatile imports of biodiesel and bioethanol into the European Union.

Opportunities

  • China’s Golden Week holiday has been a catalyst for a gold price rebound in recent years; if history is anything to go by, gold prices may be set for a rebound starting as soon as Monday. Since 2013, gold prices have dropped into the week-long Chinese holiday only to rebound sharply to their recent highs once the holiday ends. Much has been speculated about the driver for this behavior; the most widely accepted conclusion is that traders at the Shanghai Gold Exchange aggressively hedge their books into the holiday, pressuring prices lower, only to return to their long-biased stance after the festivities.
  • Moody’s reports that it expects the credit metrics of Chinese property developers to improve over the next 12 to 18 months as revenue growth outpaces growth in debt. The credit rating agency, which covers 43 companies in the sector, expects the weighted-average revenue to adjusted debt ratios to rise to 76 percent next year from 64 percent in June this year. The improvement in liquidity among Chinese property developers may unlock more growth avenues for the commodity-dependent sector.
  • The iron ore glut that has led to a significant drop in prices since July may stabilize as China seeks to revoke over 1,000 iron ore mining licenses. Lei Pingxi, chief engineer at China’s Metallurgical Mines Association, said the measure will affect more than 1,000 mines, most of which have illegally bypassed pollution control inspections.

Threats

  • The U.S. dollar may continue to recover beyond its recent rebound as traders’ positioning shows the prevailing bias remains short. Traders are still betting against the “greenback,” with net positioning data showing traders added $900 million of short exposure. The recent addition drives the net short position in the U.S. dollar to $8.4 billion, the highest since 2004. A rebounding dollar may pressure commodity prices lower. 
  • Beijing home prices fell 5 percent, on average, in the second quarter as the Chinese government continued to curb speculative activity, as reported by Caixin. The news has negative implications for base and industrial metals which are heavily used in construction activity in China. Despite the negative reports, the property-exposed equities have rebounded on hopes that no new restrictions would be unveiled next month at the annual Congress.
  • Bankers in Canada and the U.S. have reported more oil producers hedging in the past two weeks than in the past four or five months. Hedging has accelerated as WTI crude prices pushed above the $50 per barrel mark. This price is considered a major break-even point for shale producers. Increased hedging activity has traditionally coincided with a short-term peak in crude prices. 

China Region

 

Strengths

  • Thailand’s SET Index rose 86 basis points for the week, beating out other regional indices to be the strongest gainer over the last five trading days.
  • Vietnam’s year-over-year GDP growth for the third quarter came in at 6.41 percent, well ahead of expectations for a print of 6.10 percent.
  • Year-over-year Industrial Profits in China rose 24.0 percent for the August period to multi-year highs.  July’s measurement came in at 16.5 percent.

Weaknesses

  • The Hang Seng Composite Index, or HSCI, declined 1.43 percent for the week, dropping sharply on Monday following revelations of further property headwinds.  India’s SENSEX and NIFTY indices also dropped for the week, falling 2.00 and 1.76 percent, respectively.
  • Last weekend, eight Chinese cities announced stricter property controls, catching investors off guard that suspected the recent decline in the number of cities with rising new home prices might lead to a loosening or slowing of restrictions.
  • A weaker-than-expected iPhone 8 outlook took its toll this week on a number of Apple Inc. suppliers.

Opportunities

  • Asia has imported almost one in three barrels of oil exported by the United States in 2017, a recent Bloomberg story reports, pointing out that the U.S.’s light sweet crude fits the configuration of Asian refineries, is relatively cheap, and—since cargoes are purchased on a spot basis—grants refiners “flexibility to compliment their more traditional Middle Eastern supplies that are sourced via long-term contracts.”

Asia embraces american oil cargoes surge since end of 2015 export ban
click to enlarge

  • Alibaba Group is scouting locations for a second European data center, reports Bloomberg, as it expands its global footprint to better compete with Amazon. The Internet giant wants to add capacity to the region in addition to the data center in Frankfurt it opened in November.
  • The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced plans to accelerate the opening of the country’s futures market, according to an article in the China Securities Journal on Thursday. The CSRC will work actively to introduce overseas investors into certain commodities markets in the Asian nation including iron ore and oil.

Threats

  • According to a statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce on Thursday, joint ventures between Chinese firms and North Korean entities and individuals will have to close, reports Bloomberg. China has ordered North Korean companies that are active in the country to shut down as it seeks to implement United Nations sanctions against the regime, the article continues, which could lead to backlash.
  • High-level meetings in China during next month’s Communist Party Congress, has the country tightening security so that nothing is left to chance, reports Reuters. China is cancelling police leave in Beijing and limiting tourism to Tibet, in addition to clamping down on the spread of political rumors in fear that anyone or anything might offer a distraction to the “stability-obsessed party.”
  • There will likely be some clear and favored winners to come out of the affair, but China’s jointly-issued State Council and Communist Party Central Committee’s statement this week stressing patriotism over profits and the careful assembly of “national champions,” may mean potential headwinds exist for those less favored.

Emerging Europe

 

Strengths

  • Russia was the best performing country this week, gaining 1.3 percent. Credit Suisse analysts say that Russia is the most sensitive major global equity market to oil prices. The analysts say Russia is even more sensitive than U.S. exploration and production or oilfield services companies. The price of Brent crude oil rose to $57.54 per barrel this week, or 1.3 percent.
  • The Russian ruble was the best performing currency this week, gaining 20 basis points against the U.S. dollar. Russia has one of the highest real rates and the country’s currency is benefiting from the carry trade.
  • Telecommunication services was the best performing sector among eastern European markets this week.

Weaknesses

  • Greece was the worst performing country this week, losing 2.4 percent. Banks were the weakest equites trading on the Athens exchange. The IMF asked for another asset quality review and the outcome of Sunday’s German election pushed the banks lower.
  • The Polish zloty was the worst performing currency this week, losing 2.2 percent against the U.S. dollar. Emerging Europe currencies declined after Janet Yellen said the Federal Reserve needs to continue gradual rate hikes despite uncertainty about the path of inflation. In addition, President Trump’s proposal for corporate tax cuts pushed the dollar higher.
  • Consumer discretionary was the worst performing sector among eastern European markets this week.

Opportunities

  • The latest reading of the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator points to strength and further growth in the euro area. The ESI rose to 113 in September from 111.9 in August, surpassing the consensus forecast of 112.
  • Poland approved the 2018 budget draft with a lower deficit in six years. The budget keeps earlier assumptions of a 3.8 percent rise in GDP in real terms, average annual inflation of 2.3 percent, and private consumption growth at 5.9 percent. Improving tax collection and strong economic growth helped the government bring its fiscal gap to 2.7 percent of GDP.
  • Russia’s competitiveness continues to improve slowly, and not just compared to other countries, the World Economic Forum’s competitiveness reports shows. Russia jumped five rungs to 38 among 137 countries in the 2016 to 2017 Global Competitiveness Index. This was in large part due to improvements in the macroeconomic situation, including inflation, which slowed to 3.1 percent as of September, Dmytro Konovalov from HSCB reports.

Threats

  • The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, in his Tuesday speech called for a more integrated Europe and a common budget for all euro members. Macron’s wishes could be harder to accomplish following the German election. Angela Merkel won her fourth term as Chancellor, although her party suffered large losses. The right-wing, ant- immigration AfD party won 13 percent of the vote, and is now the third-largest party in the Budestag. The liberal FDP party, who favors a multi-speed Europe, gained a number of seats in the parliament as well. It could take weeks or months to form a new government in Germany and the Chancellor may have to focus more on domestic matters going forward. 

German Election
click to enlarge

  • According to unofficial results, 90 percent of people in Kurdistan voted for independence. Results of the referendum will not lead to an immediate declaration of independence; instead, it would open the door for a dialogue with Baghdad. Most international leaders opposed Kurdistan’s referendum in independence. It could create further tension in the region. Iraq demanded control over the Kurdish region, specifically two international airports, or threatened that it would face a shutdown of international flights.
  • Inflation in the euro area failed to pick up in September and underlying price growth weakened. The headline rate was unchanged at 1.5 percent in September versus the estimate for a pickup of 1.6 percent. The core rate slowed to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent. The inflation reading is crucial for the European Central Bank, which aims for inflation just below 2 percent. Policymakers will decide on October 26 whether to start reducing bond purchases in 2018.

Test your knowledge on currency

Leaders and Laggards

Weekly Performance
Index Close Weekly
Change($)
Weekly
Change(%)
Russell 2000 1,491.06 +40.28 +2.78%
S&P Basic Materials 356.15 +1.28 +0.36%
Nasdaq 6,495.96 +69.04 +1.07%
Hang Seng Composite Index 3,833.01 -55.61 -1.43%
S&P 500 2,519.01 +16.79 +0.67%
Gold Futures 1,282.80 -14.70 -1.13%
Korean KOSPI Index 2,394.47 +5.76 +0.24%
DJIA 22,405.09 +55.50 +0.25%
S&P/TSX Global Gold Index 196.32 -0.73 -0.37%
SS&P/TSX Venture Index 779.71 +1.61 +0.21%
XAU 84.65 -1.41 -1.64%
S&P Energy 506.72 +9.31 +1.87%
Oil Futures 51.55 +0.89 +1.76%
10-Yr Treasury Bond 2.33 +0.08 +3.69%
Natural Gas Futures 3.02 +0.06 +1.93%
 
Monthly Performance
Index Close Monthly
Change($)
Monthly
Change(%)
Korean KOSPI Index 2,394.47 +22.18 +0.93%
Hang Seng Composite Index 3,833.01 +5.93 +0.15%
Nasdaq 6,495.96 +127.65 +2.00%
XAU 84.65 -3.51 -3.98%
S&P/TSX Global Gold Index 196.32 -11.58 -5.57%
Gold Futures 1,282.80 -31.30 -2.38%
S&P 500 2,519.01 +61.42 +2.50%
S&P Basic Materials 356.15 +14.30 +4.18%
DJIA 22,405.09 +512.66 +2.34%
Russell 2000 1,491.06 +99.74 +7.17%
SS&P/TSX Venture Index 779.71 +6.79 +0.88%
Oil Futures 51.55 +5.59 +12.16%
S&P Energy 506.72 +47.51 +10.35%
Natural Gas Futures 3.02 +0.08 +2.62%
10-Yr Treasury Bond 2.33 +0.20 +9.47%
 
Quarterly Performance
Index Close Quarterly
Change($)
Quarterly
Change(%)
Korean KOSPI Index 2,394.47 +2.68 +0.11%
Hang Seng Composite Index 3,833.01 +303.83 +8.61%
Nasdaq 6,495.96 +355.54 +5.79%
Natural Gas Futures 3.02 -0.02 -0.63%
Gold Futures 1,282.80 +33.20 +2.66%
S&P 500 2,519.01 +95.60 +3.94%
S&P Basic Materials 356.15 +18.73 +5.55%
S&P/TSX Global Gold Index 196.32 +1.46 +0.75%
XAU 84.65 +3.87 +4.79%
DJIA 22,405.09 +1,055.46 +4.94%
Russell 2000 1,491.06 +75.70 +5.35%
SS&P/TSX Venture Index 779.71 +12.97 +1.69%
S&P Energy 506.72 +28.81 +6.03%
Oil Futures 51.55 +5.51 +11.97%
10-Yr Treasury Bond 2.33 +0.03 +1.26%
 

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All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investHoldings may change daily.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 06/30/2017:
CVR Refining L.P.
VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG
Apple Inc.
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
Golden Star Resources Ltd.
Columbus Gold Corp.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry.
The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks.
The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.
The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months.
The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange.
The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver.
The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar.
The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks.
The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.
The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns.
The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.
The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY) tracks the performance of a basket of 10 leading global currencies versus the U.S. Dollar.
The European Commission Economic SentiMent Indicator Eurozone is a monthly indicator that reflects general economic activity of the EU.  The indicator combines assessments and expectations stemming from business and consumer surveys.  Such surveys include different components of the economy: industry, consumers, constructions and retail trade.
The Global Competitiveness Index, developed for the World Economic Forum, is used to assess competitiveness of nations.  The Index is made up of over 113 variables, organized into 12 pillars, with each pillar representing an area considered as an important determinant of competitiveness: institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, health and primary education, higher education and training, goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency, financial market sophistication, technological readiness, market size, business sophistication and innovation.
The S&P Supercomposite Paper & Forest Products Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 30, 1994.
The FTSE 350 Mining Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all stocks designed to measure the performance of the mining sector of the FTSE 350 Index. The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of December 31, 1985.
The ISM Nonmanufacturing index based on surveys of more than 400 non-manufacturing firms' purchasing and supply executives, within 60 sectors across the nation, by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index tracks economic data, like the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index. A composite diffusion index is created based on the data from these surveys that monitors economic conditions of the nation.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.
The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators is an index published monthly by the Conference Board used to predict the direction of the economy's movements in the months to come. The index is made up of 10 economic components, whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy.
The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975.
Sensex, otherwise known as the S&P BSE Sensex index, is the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). It is composed of 30 of the largest and most actively-traded stocks on the BSE, providing an accurate gauge of India's economy. Initially compiled in 1986, the Sensex is the oldest stock index in India.
The NIFTY 50 Index is the National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market, launched on April 22, 1996.

 

 

Net Asset Value
as of 10/18/2017

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $5.84 -0.01 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $7.93 -0.01 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $6.37 -0.05 China Region Fund USCOX $11.56 0.01 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $7.07 -0.01 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $24.29 -0.02 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $20.79 0.10 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.23 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change