- July 30, 2012
- Challenging the Paradigms of Investing
It was an exciting and educational week. I was in Vancouver at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium speaking to hundreds of investors who are eager to learn how to grow and protect their wealth. This year’s theme, “Innovate or Die,” fit well with my presentation, as the conference challenged attendees to adapt their investment strategies just as empires and enterprises adjust to changing circumstances.
When I wasn’t behind the podium, I sat with the audience, soaking up new ideas from speakers, including Gloom Boom & Doom Editor Marc Faber, historian Niall Ferguson and Editor of Outstanding Investments Byron King, who surprised me and challenged my current way of thinking.
Back at the office, our analysts and portfolio managers continue their daily meetings as always to discuss and digest the mountains of research that cross our desks each day. We question what we read, analyze statistics and hypothesize on what we see happening across the global economy. As much as emotions and biases take a role in investing, our goal is to make decisions not based on groupthink that discourages creativity, but founded on a collective wisdom that encourages critical evaluation of the economy and markets.
Global investors constantly need to be watchful of individual biases, impaired thinking and emotional reactions that can have an adverse effect on a portfolio. That’s why we created this weekly Investor Alert which thousands of readers have come to rely on. One of our values at U.S. Global Investors is to always be curious to learn and improve, and the Investor Alert was borne from a belief that shareholders want to understand the very subtle nuances of biases and misconceptions.
My presentation attempted to address a few cognitive dissonances I see in the markets these days and I was pleased to have several attendees approach me afterward, remarking how they thought differently after seeing the slides.
As much as I’d love to share all of the visuals here, in the interest of space, I selected only a few that I believe challenge the paradigms of investing.
1. For all the hype over recent tech initial public offerings, did you know that investors have lost more money in Groupon and Facebook than the entire assets in all of the gold funds? With the endless coverage leading up to Groupon and Facebook’s IPO, the stocks appeared to be positioned to the public as a mainstream investment. However, I believe people were unaware of the risks involved when they purchased shares.
As you can see below, since its price peak on November 4 through July 26, Groupon has lost $15 billion in market capitalization. Facebook has lost even more in dollar value in a shorter amount of time: From its intraday high on May 18 through July 26, the market cap of the company has dropped $34 billion. These losses pale in comparison to all the money invested in gold funds in the U.S. combined.
2. Did you know that the overall market has historically been more volatile than gold? Take a look at the rolling 1-, 3- and 12-month volatility for the S&P 500 Index, Bank of America stock, gold bullion and gold equities. As with any investment, price action over the short term can rise and fall, but what surprises many investors is that gold has had less rolling volatility than the overall market, gold stocks and a big bank stock like Bank of America (BAC). In fact, looking over the past five years, BAC has seen more volatility than gold, the overall market and gold stocks!
Volatility Based on the Past Five Years Rolling
Bank of America (BAC) 19.83% 37.98% 59.02% S&P 500 Index (SPX) 5.98% 10.40% 21.97% Gold Bullion (GOLDS) 5.76% 8.70% 14.16% Gold Stocks (GDX) 11.81% 18.41% 33.40% Source: Bloomberg and U.S. Global Investors, as of 7/26/12
3. While Warren Buffett bashed gold, did you know that Berkshire Hathaway has underperformed the metal over the last 10 years? Gold has been on an incredible bull run over the past decade, and while Berkshire Hathaway kept pace for the first six years, it has struggled to maintain gold’s rise since 2006. In his last shareholder letter, Buffett dismissed gold, comparing the rise of the yellow metal to the tulip mania in the 1600s and claiming that gold only “enjoys maximum popularity at peaks of fear.”
As long as I’ve been in this business, there have been naysayers who question the inclusion of gold in portfolios. However, because the precious metal typically is not highly correlated with other financial assets, holding a small allocation—5 to 10 percent—in a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds has historically added diversification and reduced volatility.
4. In today’s low yield environment, did you know that inflation causes investors of Treasuries to lose money? Treasuries are seen as a “safe haven” investment, but as of the middle of July, the 10-Year Treasury had fallen to less than 1.5 percent. Yet inflation burns off at a rate of 1.7 percent. This leaves investors with a loss of about 0.2 percent. I believe better opportunities exist.
As I’ve discussed recently, there are plenty of dividend-paying resources stocks with yields much higher than the 10-year Treasury, as well as municipal bond funds that have a higher 30-day SEC yield on a tax-equivalent basis than long-term Treasuries.
Always Be Surprised
Among the millions of people around the world who will watch London’s Olympics, many will stay glued to their flat screens to see firsthand the element of surprise. We want to see the rising star who was considered the underdog, the athlete who takes a record number of gold medals or the team that pulls off an unexpected win. These are memorable moments in the making, like track and field star Jesse Owens, who changed history when he overcame adversity and infuriated the Nazis when he won four gold medals during the 1936 Games. Just like the Olympics, I encourage investors to always stay curious and watchful because you never know where the market’s opportunities will be.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.
The following securities mentioned were held by one or more of U.S. Global Investors Funds as of 6/30/12: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF.
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- July 27, 2012
- Will the Market’s Direction Determine the Presidency?
After the first few months of President Barack Obama’s term in office, I wrote about the carnival rollercoaster the market was riding. Looking at the blue line below, that post may have foreshadowed his tenure! The average of four-year presidential cycles from 1953 through 2008 shows that the S&P 500 Index generally remains flat for almost the first two years, before heading higher in the second half.
Despite the S&P’s wild ride, the market is significantly higher than when Obama took the oath. Does this ensure a victory for the 2012 election?
To paraphrase common fund disclosure, past performance is not indicative of future presidential performance. Rather, victory for the president depends on what the market does in the next few critical months.
If the S&P remains strong, then the answer might be yes, says Adam Hamilton from Zeal Intelligence. He points to research done by InvesTech, which looked at market results during the two months leading up to the presidential election since 1900. If stocks rise in September and October, the incumbent party usually wins the presidency; if equities drop, the incumbent typically loses. “Out of the last 28 presidential elections, this simple indicator has proven correct 25 times. This is an astounding 89 percent success rate!”
Piper Jaffray found very similar results. The firm reviewed the S&P 500 performance for the three months prior to an election year since 1928. According to its study, the incumbent party won 11 out of 14 times when the S&P rose, and lost 6 out of 7 presidential elections when the S&P declined over the three months.
So why does this happen? It’s the market’s effect on Americans’ psyche. Adam says, “When the stock markets are strong so everyone feels better about the future, incumbents are more likely to win.”
Adam explains what many of us feel: When stock prices are rising, people are more optimistic, and spend more; when markets take a turn for the worse, people become concerned and spend less. “Not surprisingly, these behavioral changes spawned by our rising and falling portfolios also carry over into the voting booths.”
With this in mind, a market correction in the months coming up to the election means Americans will “naturally start getting worried and anxious,” says Adam. “So they start to look for a change in leadership to fix things, to improve the economy and their own chances for success. If an election happens then, they like to vote in new blood for change.”
So how has the market typically performed? Going back to Piper Jaffray’s data, since 1928, August has historically been a “much stronger month” during election years as compared to all years. The S&P typically sees a return of about 1 percent in August; during election years, this number pops to about 3.5 percent. Also during election years, September and October have historically declined slightly.
In early August last year, the S&P dropped 12 percent in three days because of the unease over the eurocrisis and the U.S. debt downgrade. Both have parallels to what’s happening today, says Ed Hyman from ISI. He speculates that the U.S. will see a “repeat of 2010/2011, which implies a weaker economy for a few more months before improving in the fall.”
However, there are positive signs in the U.S. market today, with ISI pointing to an energy and tech boom, interest rates near zero and a cheap dollar. Also, U.S. consumers are reducing their debt burdens, with household debt as a percentage of disposable income having come off its high, and house prices in America are “among the world’s cheapest,” according to The Economist.
Which way do you think the market will head over the next few months? Let us know at firstname.lastname@example.org.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. The S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. By clicking the link above, you will be directed to a third-party website. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this website and is not responsible for its content.
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- July 26, 2012
- Capturing the Making of a Bridge
The bridge at Hoover Dam is a fantastic example of breathtaking infrastructure built in the U.S. Linking Phoenix and Las Vegas, a 2,000 foot long bridge now arches over the Colorado River, shaving as much as two hours off a driver’s commute between the cities.
Nearly halfway completed in this photo, it’s the first concrete-steel composite arch bridge built in the U.S., named after decorated Korean War veteran and governor of Nevada Mike O’Callaghan, and Pat Tillman, who gave up a multi-million dollar football career to enlist in the U.S. Army and fight in Afghanistan where he was killed by friendly fire.
Construction for the $114 million arch began in 2005 as part of the Hoover Dam Bypass Project and was open for traffic on October 19, 2010. The photographer of the image is Jamey Stillings from Santa Fe, who was in between assignments when he took a road trip to capture Lake Mead’s mineral deposits. Heading home, Hoover Dam’s infrastructure caught his eye and compelled him to return to the area by helicopter and car to photograph the infrastructure and surrounding area. The New York Times Magazine featured an incredible slideshow showing the tremendous scale of Stillings’ project.
According to an article in The New York Times about Stillings, his passion was fueled by “the wider historical significance of the construction. The Empire State Building, the Eiffel Tower, the Hoover Dam—the imagery their births created is burned into the collective memory.”
We believe the bridge underscores the ongoing need for natural resources. You’ll find more awe-inspiring stories like this one in the latest Shareholder Report, as we cover what you need, what you want and how much it will cost.
Click on the link below to see the online version now. If you’d like to read it in print, call us at 1-800-873-8637 or email at email@example.com.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.
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- July 23, 2012
- America’s Competitive Spirit
One of the few things that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney can agree on is that our economy is still struggling to regain its strength. Stubborn unemployment and sluggish growth at home combined with a slowing China and a dysfunctional eurozone have cast a dark shadow on America’s eternal optimism. The media favors negative news and the 24/7 cycle of gloom and doubt can be dispiriting.
We are always looking for the economic points of light around the globe and strive to provide a counterpoint to the pervasive pessimism. As Warren Buffett once said, “It’s never paid to bet against America. We come through things, but it’s not always a smooth ride.”
I moved from Toronto to San Antonio more than twenty years ago. A Canadian pursuing the American Dream. I bought a business that became U.S. Global Investors. I believed back then, as I still do today, that there is nowhere else in the world where opportunity abounds and initiative is rewarded as it is in the U.S.A. “Despite all its setbacks, the U.S. remains at the center of world competiveness because of its unique economic power, the dynamism of its enterprises and its capacity for innovation,” according to IMD, a well-regarded Swiss business school.
IMD recently released the findings of its annual World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY). Its rankings survey more than 4,200 international executives and measure how well countries manage their economic and human resources to increase prosperity. The top three most competitive of the 59 ranked economies in 2012 are Hong Kong, the U.S. and Switzerland.
Barron’s editorial page editor Thomas G. Donlan wrote, “It’s worth contemplating the advantages that a group of international business executives and analysts still can find in the U.S. economy. At the top is access to financing, following a strong research-and-development culture, an effective legal environment, dynamism of the economy, a skilled workforce, and reliable infrastructure. At the bottom, they find the U.S. lacks competency of government and a competitive tax regime.”
During tough times, Americans must be vigilant in safeguarding our competitive edge by continuing to be a compassionate and generous nation while resisting the siren calls of socialism. A system that strangles private property rights and sponsors excessive bureaucracy, regulation and taxation cannot deliver on a promise of prosperity to its people. We must not lose our collective faith in capitalism because it has proven to be the only social system that rewards individual ability, initiative and achievement.
What Henry Ford said a century ago holds true today, “What's right about America is that although we have a mess of problems, we have great capacity—intellect and resources—to do something about them.”
The Economist’s cover story last week heralded America’s economy the “Comeback kid.” “Led by its inventive private sector, the economy is remaking itself. Old weaknesses are being remedied and new strengths discovered, with an agility that has much to teach stagnant Europe and dirigiste Asia,” according to the story.
The story notes that while America’s overall growth is unimpressive, some components show signs of boom. We have shifted from a consumption-driven economy to a more outward-facing one. In the post-recession economy exports contributed 43 percent of growth, one of the strongest showings in any recent economic recovery. While sales to traditional markets in the OECD have risen just 20 percent since the end of 2007, they are up 51 percent to Latin America and 53 percent to China.
According to The Economist, emerging markets have also reinvigorated America’s role as a big commodity producer. Grain exports are soaring, agricultural land values are rising, and higher oil prices have triggered new output. American innovation in discovering new techniques to release oil and gas from shale has paid massive dividends to the energy sector and created thousands of new jobs in the industry. I wrote about this employment boom recently in Frank Talk and we see this explosion of growth first-hand just south of San Antonio with the development of the Eagle Ford Shale.
Cheap, plentiful natural gas benefits industries as diverse as glass, fertilizers, plastic and steelmakers. Last year for the first time in decades, America became a net exporter of refined products. And our nation’s gap between oil consumption and domestic production is shrinking.
A way to take advantage of a potential upturn in commodities is by choosing dividend-paying global resources equities. In the S&P 500 Index, nearly all of the materials and utilities stocks and more than half of energy companies pay a dividend that is higher than the 10-year Treasury. Materials and utilities companies yield an average of 2.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, while energy stocks pay an average yield of 2.2 percent. We like the combination of income with growth and it is an important factor in our stock selection process for the Global Resources Fund, as well as our other equity funds.
We believe there are many great American companies to invest in. We like those that are growing their top line revenues and paying robust dividends. Currently 47 percent of the S&P 500 stocks pay a dividend yielding more than a 10-year Treasury, demonstrating the resiliency and strength of American enterprises.
Professor Stephane Garelli, director of IMD’s World Competitiveness Center, said, “U.S. competiveness has a deep impact on the rest of the world because it is uniquely interacting with every economy, advanced or emerging. No other nation can exercise such a strong ‘pull effect’ on the word. In the end, if the U.S. competes, the world succeeds!”
It is the nature of humans to compete. The Summer Olympics commencing next week in London will bring together more than 10,500 athletes from 204 countries to compete for the gold. I look forward to watching this showcase of the human spirit and the drive to succeed.
Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.
Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.
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- July 16, 2012
- How to Look Past Negativity to See Opportunity
I recently spoke at FreedomFest in Vegas along with the world’s best and brightest minds, such as Steve Forbes, Senator Rand Paul, and Whole Foods CEO John Mackey. I discussed the growing global demand of resources and gold to a crowd of 2,000. Half of the group was attending for the first time, which demonstrates to me a growing curiosity to learn about macro trends shaping the world and affecting our investments.
Among investors these days, a fellow commodity bull is about as rare as finding a positive story in the media, especially when you look at the results of metals and natural resources during the first half of 2012. Only four commodities on our periodic table pulled off a positive return. Wheat grew the most, rising 13 percent, followed by single-digit rises from corn, gold and copper. On the negative side, coal lost more than 19 percent, followed by crude oil (-14.1 percent), nickel (-13.6 percent) and lead (-12.3 percent).
Fears of slowing global growth and how it will affect commodities have caused many investors to dig their heels in the ground and resist owning natural resources. Perpetuating this negative investor sentiment is the constant 24/7 news cycle punctuated with pessimism.
During a natural resources conference, Jeremy Grantham of GMO pounded the table for an investment in resources, but you wouldn’t know it by reading the headline of the CNN piece that covered the topic. In its article called, “Our planet will truly be toast,” CNN discussed Grantham’s comments on a global commodities shortage, saying he was “bearish on human resources…but bullish on natural resources investments.”
His argument focused on the swelling population in China, and the fact that the world has experienced a “great paradigm shift” around 2000, when commodity prices, which were negative for decades, “abruptly reversed course.” He told the crowd, “in the long run, you can’t afford to miss this opportunity.” We agree.
As you can see on McKinsey & Company’s chart above, the past decade shows a clear tipping point for resources. In 2000, I became the chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors at a time when no one wanted to touch resources. We recognized the significance of China and Eastern Europe ushering in free markets, believing this to be a positive change, with emerging markets as big beneficiaries of this massive shift.
I like to use the metaphor of an ice cube to explain how new equilibriums can have significant effects. We all naturally understand what happens when you take ice out of the freezer. It changes form, from solid to liquid, but it’s still made up of hydrogen and oxygen.
A change in something the size of an ice cube does not have much impact—it’ll only leave a puddle of water on your counter. Instead, picture a glacier thawing and how this huge chunk of ice drastically affects the world’s ocean level.
Or take H20 in steam form. At 211 degrees, water is way too hot to dip a finger, but it’s still one degree below the boiling point. As explained in the motivational book, 212: The Extra Degree, “Applying one extra degree of temperature to water means the difference between something that is simply very hot and something that generates enough force to power a machine.”
The significance of the changes in states of matter—whether it’s a chunk of melting ice or a steam engine—is that there is a tipping point that significantly alters the dynamics.
Tremendous population growth, changes in government policies, development of new technologies, urbanization trends work the same way. It’s what Grantham called “the great paradigm shift” and they have equally dramatic effects on how we invest in commodities, change opportunities and adjust for risk.
Smart investors look past the rampant negativity in the media to see these patterns and anomalies to determine where the opportunities and threats lie. Americans can see how shale gas technology has changed the dynamics of oil and natural gas. The chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 shows how consumption of petroleum and other liquids in the U.S. have significantly changed while production has been rising. Consumption rose throughout the 1980s until about 2005, when it dropped off. Meanwhile domestic production was declining. Between 2005 and 2010, a significant change happened: consumption dropped, then leveled off and the rate of production shifted higher. The EIA estimates that because of these shifts, net imports will decrease to 36 percent in 2035 from about 49 percent today.
As Brian Hicks, a portfolio manager of the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) pointed out in a Smart Money article, when oil prices rise, people put more resources into getting the commodity out of the ground. He says, before the oil-price boom, these reserves would have been unprofitable, “now they’re anchoring ‘a gold rush.’”
Similar to higher production in the U.S., Iraq production is on the rise, Libya supply is climbing and demand remains tepid. Morgan Stanley Commodity Research believes that the “path of least resistance for oil is down.” The firm estimates OPEC spare capacity at the end of 2011 and 2012 to be around 4 million barrels per day with a global consumption level estimated at 89 million barrels each day. This compares to today’s spare capacity of around 2 million barrels each day. “If OPEC production continues at today’s levels, stocks would build above normal through 3Q and supply would outstrip demand in 2012,” says Morgan Stanley.
This is why diversification among natural resources is vital. Because there’s always an ebb and flow of commodities, both seasonal and cyclical, it’s important to anticipate these global trends to know how to participate.
The key is to adapt to external elements like the way oil production adapts to excess supply. Usually the easy answer, such as staying on the sidelines, isn’t the best answer, though. Take a look at today’s yield on a 10-year Treasury—it’s 1.49 percent. Meanwhile, inflation is at 1.7 percent. This means that after you factor in what you’ve lost from the destructive force of inflation, you’re left with a negative return.
Instead of being stuck with this potentially losing proposition, we believe there are plenty of opportunities out there. In a previous blog, I discussed dividend-paying resources stocks: Of the companies in the S&P 500 Index, materials pay an average yield of 2.3 percent, utilities pay an annual rate of 4.1 percent, and energy stocks pay a dividend yield of 2.2 percent.
And if you need to park some money for a few years, you may have noticed that 3-year certificate of deposits offered at a bank are yielding about 1.34 to 1.42 percent. These CDs lock up your cash for three years and generally come with a penalty for early withdrawal.
There may be better yielding alternatives out there for those that can take on some risk as they seek higher returns. For example, U.S. Global Investors’ Near-Term Tax Free Fund (NEARX) had a higher 30-day SEC yield on a tax-equivalent basis based on a 35 percent tax rate as of June 30, 2012. Also, the fund invests in bonds that have an average maturity of just over 3 years, which is about the same holding period as a 3-year CD.
While the fund is not FDIC insured, it does provide the flexibility of daily liquidity that comes with a mutual fund.
Could this four-star fund* work for your portfolio? To find out, you can talk to one of our Shareholder Services team members Monday through Friday from 7:30 a.m. to 7 p.m. (CST) at 1-800-873-8637 or click here to send us an information request.
I’ve rarely been more excited to talk positively about how investors can take advantage of the anomalies and trends in the market. In a few weeks, I’ll be presenting these ideas at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver. Hope to see you there!
Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.
*The Near-Term Tax Free Fund earned a 4-star Morningstar Overall Rating™ among 130 Short-intermediate Municipal National Debt funds as of 6/30/2012.
Morningstar Ratings are based on risk-adjusted return. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a fund is derived from a weighted-average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund’s monthly performance (including the effects of sales charges, loads, and redemption fees), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in each category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. (Each share class is counted as a fraction of one fund within this scale and rated separately, which may cause slight variations in the distribution percentages.)
Tax-exempt income is federal income tax free. A portion of this income may be subject to state and local income taxes, and if applicable, may subject certain investors to the Alternative Minimum Tax as well. Each tax free fund may invest up to 20 percent of its assets in securities that pay taxable interest. Income or fund distributions attributable to capital gains are usually subject to both state and federal income taxes. Bond funds are subject to interest-rate risk; their value declines as interest rates rise. The tax free funds may be exposed to risks related to a concentration of investments in a particular state or geographic area. These investments present risks resulting from changes in economic conditions of the region or issuer.
Diversification does not protect an investor from market risks and does not assure a profit. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the links above, you will be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. The S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.
The McKinsey Global Institute Commodity Index is an index of 28 key commodities, building on the World Bank Grilli and Yang commodity index. MGI’s index deflates commodity prices using the World Bank’s Manufactures Unit Value Index to adjust for inflation and changes in currencies. Commodities are weighted within four subgroups (energy, food, agricultural raw materials and metals), based on the share of global export values. The four sub-indexes are averaged to create the composite MGI Commodity Index. To read more, you can download the report here.
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