Investor Resources

Frank Talk Banner
 

 

The Battle of the “Bears”

  • August 10, 2009

Fighting Bears 081009

If I told you that an investment in California was riskier than Russia, would that surprise you?

Well according to the current prices for 10-year credit default swaps, Russia is less likely to default on its debt than the state of California.

Credit default swaps are basically credit insurance. As the likelihood that a debtor will default on its debt narrows, so does the cost to insure that debt.

As the chart below shows, it costs 278 basis points of the principal amount to insure State of California debt and 268 basis points to insure sovereign Russian Federation debt.

California vs. Russia chart 081009

According to Bloomberg, the cost of credit swaps for 45 developing countries are down almost eight percent in the past five months and this week marks the first time ever the cost of debt for emerging nations is less than their industrialized counterparts.

While developed nations are footing the bill for a bailout of the global financial system the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says could reach $10 trillion, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) have accumulated $3 trillion in reserves—43 percent of the worldwide total.

The developing world has learned from past crises and adapted, while California is really just now experiencing and struggling through a significant financial crisis of its own, issuing IOUs, raising taxes and slashing spending to plug a $60 billion deficit. California may be a good proxy for much of the developed world and may be a sign that a significant shift is taking place in the current world order.

This is a very interesting development and should force investors to rethink preconceived notions of risk.

09-553


How To Invest | Access My Account | Investment Professionals | Explore Our Funds

U.S. Global Investors • 7900 Callaghan Road San Antonio, Texas 78229 • 1-800-US-Funds
© Copyright 2009, U.S. Global Investors, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Prospectus | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use Agreement | Policies and Procedures | Contact Us