Investor Resources
The Four Stages of a Bear Market
- August 18, 2009
Global markets have been in decline the past several trading days and many are now asking, is the rally over? If history is any guide, a correction is coming but we’re not there yet.
Morgan Stanley recently evaluated the performance of 19 bear markets in different countries around the world. It’s a comprehensive list that includes the bear market in Switzerland during the 1960s, Japan in the 1990s and Australia in the 1980s among others.
What they found is that the median fall from a market’s peak is 56 percent and lasts 29 months. The S&P fell 58 percent over 18 months from its peak in October 2007.

U.S. markets have rebounded roughly 51 percent in 5 months from March lows but the median bear market rebound is 70 percent over 17 months.
This suggests the market rally still has some legs.
However, Morgan Stanley discovered that 12 of 18 equity market rebounds stalled 1 to 3 months prior to interest rates being raised. Their conclusion was that when governments begin to withdraw stimulus, the market begins to falter.
It doesn’t appear that will be a problem in the U.S. The Fed made it clear last week they were prepared to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time and that deflation remained their chief concern.
In addition to our monetary efforts, there are some fiscal policies that should aid us along. With more than half of American Recovery Act money waiting to be distributed, the government has the funds allocated to continue stimulating the economy even if we see conditions improve.
The danger will be if we become too complacent in our recovery before economic strength has been fully restored.
09-568
Net Asset Value
as of 02/07/2012
- Global Resources Fund
PSPFX $10.20 -0.03 - Gold and Precious Metals Fund
USERX $13.94 -0.02 - World Precious Minerals Fund
UNWPX $14.84 +0.02 - China Region Fund
USCOX $7.65 -0.04 - Eastern European Fund
EUROX $9.19 +0.07 - Global Emerging Markets Fund
GEMFX $7.58 +0.01 - Global MegaTrends Fund
MEGAX $8.19 +0.01 - All American Equity Fund
GBTFX $24.22 +0.10 - Holmes Growth Fund
ACBGX $18.95 +0.07 - Tax Free Fund
USUTX $12.80 -0.01 - Near-Term Tax Free Fund
NEARX $2.28 No Change - U.S. Government Securities Savings Fund
UGSXX $1.00 No Change - U.S. Treasury Securities Cash Fund
USTXX $1.00 No Change



