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Good Odds for a Commodities Rally This Fall

  • August 19, 2009

I stopped by CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” yesterday to talk commodities and emerging markets with hosts Erin Burnett and Mark Haines. Erin asked me where I stood on the inflation vs. deflation debate and I reiterated my longstanding position.

For eight years my thesis for gold has been gold will rise on deflation. Whenever you have extreme deflation or big inflation, gold rises. If there’s none like in ’97, ’98 and ’99 then gold is basically dormant as a monetary asset. We have deflation. Why do I say that? Because we have negative interest rates. Since 2001, 80 percent of the time we have had negative interest rates, that’s a deflationary cycle. Now we have deficit spending, so any country that has negative interest rates coupled with deficit spending, gold goes up in that currency.

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