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With Markets Uncertain, Indian Investors Return to Their Roots

  • October 28, 2008

Special commentary from Jayant Bhandari, a consultant to U.S. Global Investors, based on conversations with his contacts in India

With the Diwali holiday being celebrated today, the fall in gold prices could not have come at a better time for value-seeking Indians.

Before the holiday, a gold wholesaler in Chennai told Reuters that if gold prices fell below 1,200 rupees per gram of gold, pent-up demand would drain available supply. Gold is below that price level, and his predictions seem to be bearing out.

Initial reports suggest that gold sales on Dhanteras, which kicks off the five-day celebration two days before Diwali itself, rose by at least 50 percent over last year.

And gold sales were strong even ahead of the holiday season: A trade federation reports that 50 tonnes of gold were consumed in the first 20 days of October, compared with 80 tonnes in the entire fourth quarter of last year.

While Diwali gold sales are starting out strong, demand during the recent Pushya Nakshatra holiday was mixed. Our contacts in smaller cities tell us that gold demand was extremely strong, but the news from bigger cities was less favorable.

These short-term details are not really so important. Indeed, in the short-term, Indians might have to sell their gold for liquidity needs, as is happening elsewhere. What is interesting to us is the larger picture and the fundamental forces at play, which show a shift that is taking place in the Indian investor’s mind.

5 Yr Spot Gold chart 102808

It is this shift—a move away from stocks and real estate—that is making gold once again a top investment in India.

India’s stock exchange has lost more than 50 percent of its value since its peak in January 2008, and it is now hovering below the key support levels. And for the first time in anyone’s living memory, Indian property prices are falling.

On top of that, inflation is around 11 percent, and real interest rates are negative. The rupee has fallen more than 20 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past year, making imports more expensive and reducing the possibility of a significant reduction in inflation.

In the long term, India remains a great economy for investors. But in the current uncertain environment, with stocks and property lagging and inflation overpowering interest rates, how should Indians preserve their wealth? They can’t buy dollars, as others are doing, because of currency restrictions.

That leaves gold as the best answer. For many Indians, it’s the only answer they can think of.

Once deleveraging has taken place and India’s credit markets are functioning again, it’s reasonable to expect gold demand to start climbing. Expect India to provide price support during this Diwali season and the forthcoming wedding season.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.


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