- December 7, 2011
- Significant Growth Potential for Indonesia’s Middle Class
Indonesia’s workforce is growing 7,000 people stronger each day, adding an estimated 21 million people to its workforce by over the next decade. This is second only to India as Asia’s fastest growing workforce.
CLSA says this growth has given birth to a burgeoning middle class willing to spend money on durable goods such as clothing, personal-care items, home appliances and electronics. Currently, domestic consumption accounts for two-thirds of Indonesia’s GDP. We’ve already seen double-digit growth in sales for televisions, cars, computers and laptops over the past few years. More importantly, this trend is just getting started …

Currently about three of every four of the country’s middle class spend $4 or less a day. With easier access to low-cost financing and greater employment opportunities, CLSA says disposable incomes could rise by 11 percent annually over the next five years. CLSA says the country’s elaborate network of islands could provide challenges for newcomers, helping companies with an existing footprint in Asia experience superior growth.
But don’t count out foreign investment. The Southeast Asian economy has already attracted six times more foreign investment in 2011 than it did 10 years ago. Toyota recently announced plans to build a second Indonesian factory at an estimated cost of $342 million, according to Bloomberg. In addition, the country is also in discussion with several Japanese manufacturers to diversify operations away from flood ravaged Thailand and relocate to Indonesia. Nearby Singapore has invested more than $8 billion in Indonesia’s mining, telecommunications, metals and electronics sectors.
.Increased foreign investment and a rising middle class have kept Indonesia’s economy afloat despite the turmoil in global markets. Citigroup Global Markets’ analysts estimate Indonesia’s GDP growth to reach 6.3 percent in 2012 and 6.5 percent in 2013—good for third-best in the region. Based on anticipated earnings growth, Citi expects “20 percent upside potential” in the Jakarta Stock Exchange in 2012.
With rising levels of incomes, a high savings rate and an emerging middle class on the cusp of a spending spree, Indonesia appears well positioned for future growth.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. None of U.S. Global Investors Funds held any of the securities mentioned in this article as of September 30, 2011.
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- December 1, 2011
- Chart of the Week – Oil’s Breakeven Price
One way to gauge support for the price of oil is to calculate the breakeven price. In other words, what is the dollar amount per barrel that would be required for an oil-producing country to balance its fiscal budget?
Several factors go into this calculation such as the location (and quality) of a country’s reserves, and the spending habits of the federal government.
Analysts at Carnegie Investment Bank recently put together this chart, which illustrates the breakeven price needed for some of the world’s largest oil producers. Combined, these countries are expected to produce 30 percent of the world’s oil in 2011, Carnegie says. Note: these prices are for Brent crude, which have been $10-to-$15 per barrel above West Texas Intermediate prices this year.

Russia, which is currently the world’s largest oil producer, has leaned on the profits of the natural gas and crude oil exports to account for nearly 14 percent of the country’s GDP in 2010. But Russia isn’t the only export-dependent country. Many countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, have used oil profits to ease “Arab Spring” tensions by financing public programs.
However, Carnegie notes that the fiscal budgets of many oil-exporting countries were rising prior to the citizen revolution due to a lack of non-oil revenues, rapid population growth and generous welfare systems. For example, Saudi Arabia, which generates 80 percent of its government revenue from the petroleum sector, has increased government spending roughly 54 percent since 2008. Other countries such as the UAE (up 48 percent), Bahrain (up 53 percent) and Qatar (up 59 percent) have seen government spending increase over the same time period.
Carnegie says the result is, “OPEC countries have stronger incentives to defend higher oil prices, i.e. any drop in the oil price could mean lower OPEC production in order to try to secure higher oil prices.” It also means these countries are “less likely to invest in building additional production capacity.”This only adds to our argument that we could see oil prices continue at their current levels despite a weaker global economy and softening demand for oil.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
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- November 22, 2011
- Seven Surprising Stats on the Internet and Emerging Markets
With rising wealth in emerging markets in recent years, people in China, India and Brazil have quickly acquired a taste for mobile phone and Internet technology. The industry in developing countries is in its infancy but growth has been swift. Below are seven surprising facts about this fast-growing emerging market trend:1. Only 35 percent of the world’s population uses the Internet today. Yet, of those on the Web, the majority currently lives in a developing country.
2. China has the largest number of Internet users—485 million to be exact—but this is only one-third of the country’s population. After the U.S., India comes in third with 100 million users, but this is less than 10 percent of its population. Brazil holds the number five position with nearly 76 million users—only one-third of its population.

3. The adoption of smartphones is expected to grow rapidly in emerging markets. According to Bloomberg News, within a four-month timeframe, five million Chinese bought Apple’s iPhone 4 from China Mobile. The company plans to have 1 million new Wi-Fi hotspots across China over the next three years, says Bloomberg, so the consumer can surf the Web via Wi-Fi without having 3G access.
4. Ninety-seven percent of all households in the Republic of Korea can connect to the Internet. The country also has the highest mobile-broadband penetration worldwide. United Nations specialized agency ITU says that implementing policies have made the Republic of Korea an “IT powerhouse.”5. The U.S. isn’t the only fan of Facebook. Although Americans overwhelmingly make up the majority of Facebook users, Indonesia has the second-highest number of members, with 40 million accounts. India, Turkey, Brazil and Mexico have more than 30 million members each, according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets Research data.
6. In addition to keeping the world connected to friends and family, the Internet is also a driver of economic growth. Through e-commerce, almost $8 trillion exchange hands each year, says McKinsey Global Institute in its new report on the impact of the Internet. McKinsey says the Internet has made a significant contribution to world GDP growth. Over the past five years, if you combine advanced economies and China, India and Brazil, the Internet has contributed to 11 percent of GDP growth.
7. The Internet has also played a huge role in the Middle East protests. Read a previous post where we ask if the Internet is the Land of the Free?
By clicking the links above, you will be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more of U.S. Global Investors Funds as of 9/30/2011: Apple, ChinaMobile, China Unicom.
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- November 18, 2011
- Big Shift in Gold Demand
Yesterday we discussed how the landscape of gold mine production has changed over the past 40 years. (Read “South Africa’s Incredibly Shrinking Gold Production” now.) Today, we focus on the other half of the economic model—gold demand’s big shift from the West to the East.
In 1970, according to the latest World Gold Council (WGC) report, half of the world’s gold was purchased in two regions—North America and Europe. Ten years later, that figure jumped all the way to 68 percent during a period of high inflation, a weak economy and spiking gold prices. At the same time, China and India (broadly represented in the chart as East Asia and Indian Sub continent) saw their combined share of gold demand diminish from 35 percent to 15 percent.

Since 1980, there’s been a slow transition in demand, with the Asian tiger clawing its way back. In 1990, East Asia and the Indian Sub continent demanded 40 percent of the world’s total gold; by 2000, demand rose to about 50 percent, and today, the two areas devour roughly 68 percent of the world’s gold.
Jewelry has been a major driver of the shift from west to east, says the WGC as the countries in the east spend their rising discretionary income on gold purchases. The WGC anticipates this level of demand will remain strong in the East, given the ongoing trend of urbanization, rise of the middle class and high savings rates in India and China.
Read more about gold demand in this part of the world in 3 Drivers, 2 Months, 1 Gold Rally?
By clicking the link above, you will be directed to a third-party website. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this website and is not responsible for its content.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
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- November 17, 2011
- South Africa’s Incredibly Shrinking Gold Production
Finding evidence to pop the talk of a gold bubble is much easier than finding a needle in a haystack. There are enough needles of evidence out there to fill a pin cushion. The latest Gold Demand Trends Report from the World Gold Council (WGC) contained two salient visuals of how the dynamics of the global gold market have shifted from the West to the East over the past 40 years.
Today we’ll take a look at supply, and tomorrow we’ll dive into demand.
This chart illustrates Africa’s incredibly shrinking gold production over the past 40 years. Africa's mine production was down by the continent's main producer, South Africa, which enjoyed a 100-year reign as the world's largest gold producer.

At the height of South Africa’s gold mining empire in 1970, the country produced 79 percent of “free world” gold, according to the WGC. Free world does not include gold production from the communist bloc, which would decrease South Africa’s share to roughly 62 percent based on estimates. North America was the only other region to produce a significant share of gold, which was about 10 percent.
Over the past four decades, South Africa’s gold mining sector has been plagued by frequent labor strikes and a lack of necessary resources, such as water and electricity. In addition, South Africa’s production has suffered from a substantial decline in ore grades of gold deposits. According to the 2011 CPM Gold Yearbook, the country’s average ore grade peaked around 12.49 grams per metric ton in 1968 and has been on a steady decline since then. By 2009, the average grade of gold mined fell below 2 grams per metric ton, an 85 percent drop.
Lower ore grades require a miner to chew through more rock to recover the gold. A South African mine today would have to move roughly 10 times the tonnage of rock to produce the same amount of gold.
While mine production in the 1970s was a one-man show, today’s global mine production is a collective effort. No single country supplies more than 14 percent of the world’s total, according to the WGC. The WGC says, “This lack of concentration serves as a buffer against supply risks stemming from individual countries, a facet of gold that differentiates from the other precious metals, which have significantly higher production concentration.”
The biggest growth over the past 40 years has come from China, which has seen its mine production rise from obscurity to become the world’s largest producer. Interestingly enough, this production increase hasn’t been able to keep pace with the country’s insatiable demand for gold.
For the rest of that story, tune in tomorrow when we’ll discuss how China’s demand for gold is reshaping the industry.
See our interactive map to learn more about the top gold-producing countries of 2010.
By clicking the link above, you will be directed to a third-party website. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this website and is not responsible for its content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
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