By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

Facebook’s highly anticipated initial public offering today helped the company raise $16 billion, a record for tech IPOs. It’s refreshing to see investor excitement rally around the stock, as the U.S. needs innovative businesses to thrive and attract capital. However, as behavioral finance warns, be cautious of a herd mentality.

Last November, the IPO deal of the day was Groupon. On the first day of trading, shares rose to a high of $31 from an initial offering price of $20.

By Thanksgiving, the stock had fallen below the IPO price, and only a few months later, uncertainty popped up around the company’s accounting methods and financial controls. The stock fell further, with the market devaluing Groupon by about 50 percent in only six months. How’s that for a group buy?

It’s interesting to note that the value of Groupon’s stock has lost more than $13 billion since the peak on the first trading day through April 30. For comparison, if you look at the total net assets in Lipper’s precious metals mutual fund peer category, assets fell $8.3 billion over the same timeframe. Investors lost more than $5 billion more in one tech stock alone than in all of the precious metals funds combined.

Gold—A Reality Check
Investors have “defriended” gold recently in favor of the dollar, as Greek and French voters rejected austerity measures. Greeks have been responding to their escalating debt issues for a while by steadily pulling money from overnight deposits. I often say, money goes where it is best treated, and these deposits will need to find a safe haven.

It’s not only Greece the market is worried about, says BCA Research. In a special report aptly named, “In Case of Emergency Grexit,” the firm says there’s extra pressure on Spain and Italy, “which imminently needs a large bailout of its banking system.” The 10-year yields for each country have reached 6 percent today, and while there are funds to sufficiently cover Spain, there aren’t enough funds for Italy, too, says BCA.

So if the European Union (EU) stops the flow of bailout funds, Greece, unable to pay wages, would invoke social unrest, according to BCA.

More importantly, without funds from the EU, Greece would default on its bonds. Looking at what the country owes this year alone, $1 to $7.6 billion is due each month, says BCA. The European Central Bank would then most likely stop providing funds to Greek banks, causing more individuals to pull money. “With deposit flight, and no injections from the ECB, the banks would be bust and Greece would be hemorrhaging money,” says BCA.

It’s also important to look at the investors of Greek debt. According to the London Evening Standard earlier this year, French banks are the largest holders of Greek government bonds and private-sector debt in the eurozone, with $47.9 billion exposure to Greece.

In the end, I believe governments in Europe lack the courage to be fiscally disciplined. Earlier this week, I told Aaron Task and Henry Blodget on The Daily Ticker that when push comes to shove, Europe will likely continue to print money. This should be positive for gold.

At the Hard Assets Conference earlier this week, Greg Weldon compared the money printing situation to a sink. In an interview he gave with The Gold Report, Greg said:

“It’s going to be very difficult to see how economies in Europe, the U.S. and Japan can stand on their own two feet without the assistance of central banks debasing currency through debt monetization. I liken it to filling the sink halfway up with water and pulling the plug out of the drain. Of course, the water level will recede unless you turn the faucet on and start more water pouring into the sink. The level of water represents asset prices, the water flowing out of the faucet represents liquidity provided by global central banks and the drain represents the real macro economy, which has not been fixed.

“At the end of the second round of qualitative easing, when the Fed shut off the faucet, the water level (asset prices) started to go down. But now the water is running again—particularly with some of the measures instituted by the European Central Bank, with its three-year loan program, the federal liquidity swaps and the back-ended way that it's managed to involve the International Monetary Fund.

“The problem with all of this is it does nothing to fix the underlying problem, which is too much debt. This is not sustainable. Central banks turning on the water faucet is good for asset prices. The real solutions of fiscal austerity, which are probably not palatable to most politicians in Europe, are the real struggle as we go forward. This problem is not going to go away.”

So, during times like we’ve had recently, when the dollar is chosen over gold, I apply math. The chart below shows the 60-day percentage change of the gold price and the U.S. dollar. Gold’s recent weakness has triggered a -2.2 sigma event in standard deviation terms. Over the past 10 years, this has happened less than 2 percent of the time. Historically, each time gold has touched the -2 sigma mark, the precious metal has rallied.

This bounce is exactly what we saw on Thursday and Friday this week.

See more slides from my Hard Assets Investment Conference.

While gold may not go up vertically from here—as frequent readers know, the yellow metal historically has fallen in June and July—with the extraordinary events occurring in Europe, I believe investors will soon “friend” gold once more. As we wait for the central banks around the world to act, I encourage investors to consider dollar-cost averaging. It’s a way to stay invested, and more importantly, to avoid making emotional investment decisions.

Index Summary

• The major market indices were lower this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 3.52 percent. The S&P 500 Stock Index decreased 4.30 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite posted a loss of 5.28 percent.
• Barra Value outperformed Barra Growth as Barra Value dropped 2.31 percent while the Barra Growth index declined 4.05 percent. The Russell 2000 closed the week with a loss of 5.42 percent.
• The Hang Seng Composite posted a loss of 5.23 percent; Taiwan dropped 3.38 percent, while the KOSPI fell 7.02 percent.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 1.72 percent, falling 12 basis points for the week.

Domestic Equity Market

The S&P 500 Index declined 4.30 percent this week. Telecom services, consumer staples and utilities outperformed as investors sought safety in the economically defensive sectors. Classic cyclical sectors such as materials and technology, along with financials, underperformed.

Strengths

• AT&T and Verizon paced the telecom service sector for the fourth week in a row as investors sought the relative safety of market leading dividend yields.
• The best individual stock performers this week were Salesforce.com, which rose by 5.7 percent, and Wal-Mart, which rose by 5.1 percent, as both companies beat earnings expectations.

Weaknesses

• The financial sector was hit particularly hard this week with the entire sector falling by more than 7 percent. Insurance companies led on the downside with Hartford Financial, MetLife and Lincoln National all falling by more than 12 percent.
• The materials sector was down more than 6.5 percent as steel-related names fell sharply. U.S. Steel and Allegheny Technologies were both down more than 16 percent this week.
• It was a very rough week for J.C. Penney which is in the middle of a new strategy with a new CEO. The company had a significant loss in the quarter as sales fell 20 percent.

Opportunity

• There were very few positive industry groups this week but gold stocks bounced on European concerns, while airline stocks were up due to lower oil prices. One week does not make a trend, but these groups are definitely worth watching.

Threat

• The U.S. remains a bright spot in the global economy but external shocks from Europe or Asia can’t be ruled out.

The Economy and Bond Market

Treasuries rallied this week, sending long-term yields sharply lower. With headlines touting bank runs in Greece and Spain, the risk-off trade was in full swing this week as both gold and the U.S. dollar rallied along with Treasuries. Ten-year Treasury yields hit the lowest level in 60 years this week and German 10-year bonds hit new record lows as part of the risk-off/fear trade.

Strengths

• The consumer price index for April was unchanged and the trend in inflation data is lower.
• Housing starts rose 2.6 percent in April as the housing market remains a bright spot.
• Central banks remain supportive as the Fed minutes released from the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting hinted at more monetary easing if the economy slows. The Bank of England echoed similar thoughts and the market sees higher chances of additional quantitative easing.

Weaknesses

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index fell 0.1 percent in April.
• Chinese power production rose a modest 0.7 percent, the smallest gain since May 2009.
• Eurozone industrial production fell 0.3 percent in April; expectations were for a gain of 0.4 percent.

Opportunity

• Bonds continue to grind higher and appear to be forecasting benign inflation and slow growth.
• The Federal Reserve appears willing to increase monetary accommodation if necessary, which would be a boost to the bond market.

Threat

• China’s economy is slowing faster than expected and government policy makers appear comfortable with this dynamic.
• Europe remains a wildcard with austerity programs under pressure, creating significant uncertainty.

May 17, 2012 How Gold Demand Remains Resilient	May 14, 2012 Looking to China to Fire Up Its Economy	May 11, 2012 Chart of the Week: Where Global Industrial Production Is Coming From

World Precious Minerals Fund - UNWPX • Gold and Precious Metals Fund - USERX

Gold Market

For the week, spot gold closed at $1,592.40 up $13.59 per ounce, or 0.86 percent. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, fell 1.87 percent. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index gained 1.28 percent for the week.

Strengths

• Gold ETF holdings in India have reached close to the $2 billion mark for the first time as of April 30. According to data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India, assets under managements for gold ETFs have more than doubled from a year ago.
• Billionaire investor George Soros raised his stake in the SPDR gold trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, according to a filing this week. Against a backdrop of record low interest rates and expectations for further central bank gold buying, which is running at its fastest pace in five decades, there apparently are still buyers adding to gold at current levels. Using a 60-day rate of change, gold prices have fallen 2.2 standard deviations now. Over the last 10 years, gold fell to 2.4 standard deviations in October 2006 and to an extreme of 3.4 in October 2008. One year after those falls, the gold price was up 29 percent and 46 percent, respectively.
• The U.S. House Natural Resources Committee Wednesday passed the National Strategic and Critical Minerals Act, aimed at streamlining the permitting process for U.S. mining. The U.S. Department of Energy identified the 7-10 year period to obtain mining permits in the U.S. as compared to the average 1-2 years in Australia as one of the principle barriers to new U.S. mining ventures. Behre Dolbear, an international consulting firm, has identified the U.S. as having one of the longest permitting processes in the world for mining projects. The bill now goes to a floor vote by the full House, but the bill is not without detractors. Rep. Ed Market, D-Massachusetts, unsuccessfully tried to amend the bill to require a royalty payment for 12.5 percent of the value of the minerals produced as a result of a federal permit for mineral exploration or mining on federal lands.

Weaknesses

• Commodities guru Jim Rogers said he is not buying gold as he expects gold prices to fall further and believes they could tumble 40-50 percent off their top if India were to stop its gold imports or if Europeans were to sell their gold. Rogers notes those probabilities are pretty low but there has been some effort in India to curtail the purchase of gold, such as the introduction of new or higher tax rates on gold purchases. This proposed tax, which was announced in March, was later abandoned after widespread protest.
• Two mining CEOs called it quits this week. John Greenslade left Baja Mining after a drawn-out proxy fight with the company’s largest shareholder. International Tower Hill Mines announced that the Board of Directors has decided to undertake a review of the Livengood Project in order to optimize available development alternatives and that it accepted the resignation of James Komadina as President and Chief Executive of the company.
• In an interview on Mineweb.net, Gold Fields CEO Nick Holland said that the gold industry needs a price above $1,500 per ounce otherwise curtailment of projects, rationalization and possibly more consolidation was in the cards. Nick pointed out that the all-in cost of the industry to produce an ounce of gold is probably around $1,400 per ounce and that doesn't leave a lot of margin at $1,500. CIBC recently pegged $1,700 per ounce as the replacement cost for an ounce of gold and highlighted that tax increases have been one of the fastest growing components of the cost creep.

Opportunities

• Low gold prices have been a weight on gold equities. Gold mining analyst Tanya Jakusconek of Scotia Bank highlighted that its group of North American senior gold miners is currently trading at 0.90 times the NAV compared to the lows of 0.79 achieved in 2008.

• Before gold rallied in the last two days of the week, all the price gains made this year were erased as the dollar had gone a record 13 days of consecutive gains. What may have snapped gold back was the realization that the run on the banks in Greece by its citizens withdrawing their money could be a wildcard that forces the European Central Bank to act sooner than expected and/or lead to a policy mistake on how to address the country’s solvency crises. Goldman expects gold prices to rise 25 percent to $1,940 an ounce in 12 months and Morgan Stanley forecast prices to rebound to an average of $1,825 this year and $2,175 in 2013.
• As for gold equities they are down but not out. However, investors are adamant about one thing…SHOW ME THE MONEY! In his seminal research report “Stop ‘Growth At Any Price’ (GAAP) Building,” George Topping of Stifel Nicolaus noted that rampant mining inflation has benefited those involved in mine-building to the detriment of shareholders. George pointed out that if mining companies deferred lower internal rate of return (IRR) deposits this would allow management to better focus on cost control, send a message to consultants/contractors that fees have gone too far, and free up labor for the remaining projects. Projects should pass stress test levels of using a $1,200/oz long-term gold price and deliver a minimum 10 percent IRR. The current dynamic in the sector of escalating cash cost and capital expenditure creep has made the high grade/high margin deposits more accretive and with less downside exposure on the gold price. These are the types of companies our gold funds focus on for delivering the best value creation over time. Gold company shareholders are likely to be supportive if the capex savings are paid out as dividends which could be raised to levels that approach 5 percent. George points out that a change of strategy by the gold mining companies is required to reverse the flow of funds out of the gold sector.

Threats

• HSBC Global Research lamented that at some point, the focus will come back to America versus Euroland and the U.S. dollar will come back under pressure. HSBC documents the pending fiscal cliffhanger the U.S. faces with nine tax expirations or spending cuts that investors should worry about seeing in the near future: 1. Expiration of 2001/2003 Bush-era income tax cuts, 2. Budget Control Act Sequester, 3. Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) increase, 4. Interaction of AMT and income tax changes, 5. Payroll Tax Cut expiration, 6. Expiration of extended unemployment benefits, 7. Reduction in payments for Medicare physician services, 8. New Medicare Tax, and 9. Tax extenders.
• HSBC compiled a worst-case scenario for these potential policy changes and a reality-check scenario that tries to estimate what may actually happen. In the worst-case scenario, the tax increases and spending cuts could amount to $665 billion or about 4.1 percent of GDP in 2013; in a reality-check scenario HSBC forecast 2013 GDP to come in at 1.8 percent.
• David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff Research, also reminded us this week the current luster surrounding the U.S. economy may be in for some headwinds as the fall approaches. With arguably the most important presidential election since 1980, in terms of setting the economic and fiscal path for the next decade, the U.S. government is on track to again hit the debt ceiling by October, just weeks ahead of the election, with Republicans planning a new standoff on debt limits to be front and center. Dave notes that “at that point in the fall, a lot of folks may have wished they were buying the dip in gold during the winter and spring.”

Energy and Natural Resources Market

Strengths

• According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, its copper inventory fell 9,178 metric tons to 187,449 metric tons.
• China’s steel product output rose 7.9 percent last month to 81.1 million metric tons from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
• China imported a record high 25.05 million metric tons of coal in April, up 90.1 percent year-on-year, Platts reported, citing preliminary customs figures. Chinese year-to-date coal imports rose 69.6 percent year-on-year to 86.55 million metric tons of coal.

Weaknesses

• Stocks and commodities fell this week as the likelihood of a Greek exit from the eurozone has increased significantly during the past two weeks.
• Oil prices fell 4.8 percent this week. The current bout of concerns had arisen from the resurgent fears about the Spanish and Italian banking systems and speculation that Greece may have to exit the euro. Since then, for oil in particular, news reports suggesting that President Obama is seeking G8 cooperation on an oil stock release have compounded the depressing effect.
• Reuters reported that Chinese steel mills defer iron ore shipments owing to slowness in the steel market. Some Chinese steel mills are said to have postponed iron ore deliveries from suppliers such as Vale, given the slow steel markets. Producers are also expecting a further drop in prices.

Opportunities

• Global inflation might have already pushed the costs of exploring and producing oil from new most expensive projects, known in the industry as the marginal cost of production, above $100 per barrel, according to JBC energy consultancy. That compares to $50-$75 prior to the 2008 financial crisis. A decade ago, oil companies such as BP were saying they would start a project if oil traded above $17-$20. Even the International Energy Agency, which represents consuming nations, says production costs have gone up sharply. “There is not a single drop of oil in the world that cannot be produced at a price of oil of $85-$90,” IEA’s chief economist Fatih Birol told a summit.
• The Chinese government announced a new batch of new subsidies to promote the consumption of energy-efficient home appliances and autos on Wednesday. RMB6bn will be provided to fuel-efficient vehicles with engines below 1.6L, and an RMB26.5bn financial subsidy will be provided for energy-efficient appliance products, including all the major white goods products. This appears to be a clear signal of the government’s commitment to shift domestic demand toward more personal consumption and away from fixed asset investment.
• Oil industry executives and bankers are assuming oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel in the year ahead, despite mounting economic worries, as any fall below that level would trigger a cut in Saudi Arabia’s output and force closures at high-cost projects around the world. A Reuters straw poll of oil executives, traders, bankers and fund managers showed seven respondents predicting Brent crude trading at $100-$120 a barrel in the next 12 months.
• Boart Longyear, the world’s biggest provider of mineral drilling services, expects demand to remain strong as large mining companies proceed with projects. “We still see very strong demand, particularly from the majors,” Craig Kipp, CEO of the company said. “We haven’t heard from a lot of the majors outside of Australia that there’s a change in their plans or in their budgets. We haven’t seen any change in market dynamics - we’re operating all over the world,” Kipp said. “We do see that juniors, the second-tiers, have had problems getting financing,” he added.

Threats

• In a Wall Street Journal article last year at this time, Chief Executive Marius Kloppers said BHP would invest $80 billion by the end of 2015 to expand further. The eurozone crisis, slower Chinese growth, and falling metals prices are forcing BHP to now say it will be cutting those spending plans. Falling commodity prices and rising operating costs put its cash inflows at risk and, by extension, its commitment both to raising its dividend and keeping its single-A credit rating. BHP's plans need to become clearer if it wants to reverse the 28 percent fall in its share price since a year ago.
• Agrimoney reported that the Federal Reserve has warned, “The surge in U.S. farmland prices, which in parts of the Plains achieved their strongest run of growth on record, may be about to fade, sapped by the worsened outlook for agricultural profits.” Farmland values posted sharply higher gains in states around Kansas in the year to the start of last month, reflecting higher crop prices and an easing in the drought which has plagued much of the area since 2010. “Strong farm incomes continued to fuel demand for farmland,” the Federal Reserve System's Kansas City bank said, noting that values had now risen by more than 20 percent for two consecutive years for the first time since it began collecting data in the 1970s. Prices in Nebraska, which avoided drought, were particularly strong, with values of irrigated land soaring 41 percent.

Emerging Markets

Strengths

• Despite the escalating crisis in Greece and the wider eurozone, Turkish retail equities have rallied strongly since the start of 2012. In contrast to most global equities, the Istanbul Stock Exchange Retail Index has already surged well beyond its 2008 peak and last month pushed through the high achieved in 2011.

• China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points over the weekend, which creates liquidity for banks.
• China will allocate Rmb 26.5 billion in subsidies to promote the use of energy-saving household appliances and products, which should be positive to the sector.
• Korea’s unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in April, as the number of employed people jumped 1.9 percent in the month.

Weaknesses

• Foreign direct investment in China fell 0.7 percent from a year earlier to $8.4 billion in April, a sixth monthly drop since November last year, which will reduce the amount of pressure for the central bank to buy back foreign currency.
• China’s power consumption, a barometer of economic activity, increased 3.7 percent in April to 389 billion kilowatt-hours, the slowest in 16 months, data from the National Energy Administration showed on Monday. The growth rate was 3.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and 7.5 percentage points slower than the same period last year. It was the slowest rate since January 2011.
• Renewed uncertainty over Greece's eurozone membership and the potential for severe crisis contagion upon a Greek departure from the monetary union has weighed heavily on the banking sector over the recent week.

Opportunities

• Foreign capital has continued flowing into the Thai equity market this year, reaching $2.6 billion year-to-date in May, according to Morgan Stanley. At the current speed, the total inflow of foreign capital can easily surpass the recent peak of $2.9 billion. Investors are attracted to Thailand due to the expectation of economic recovery from flooding last year.

Threats

• On top of slowed domestic investment growth, both worsened eurozone credit risk and consumption demand negatively affected Chinese economic growth. The Chinese government soon may have to restart stalled infrastructure projects to help economic growth while it is trying to transform the economy by enhancing value-added manufacturing productivity and consumption.

Leaders and Laggards

The tables show the performance of major equity and commodity market benchmarks of our family of funds.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

An investment in a money market fund is neither insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio.

The Eastern European Fund invests more than 25 percent of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries. The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile.
Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.

Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5 percent to 10 percent of your portfolio in these sectors. Investing in real estate securities involves risks including the potential loss of principal resulting from changes in property value, interest rates, taxes and changes in regulatory requirements.
Tax-exempt income is federal income tax free. A portion of this income may be subject to state and local income taxes, and if applicable, may subject certain investors to the Alternative Minimum Tax as well. Each tax free fund may invest up to 20 percent of its assets in securities that pay taxable interest. Income or fund distributions attributable to capital gains are usually subject to both state and federal income taxes. Bond funds are subject to interest-rate risk; their value declines as interest rates rise. The tax free funds may be exposed to risks related to a concentration of investments in a particular state or geographic area. These investments present risks resulting from changes in economic conditions of the region or issuer.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

These market comments were compiled using Bloomberg and Reuters financial news.

Holdings as a percentage of net assets as of 3/31/12:

AT&T, Inc.: All American Equity Fund, 1.15%; Global MegaTrends Fund, 2.05%
Verizon Communications, Inc.: All American Equity Fund, 0.97%; Global MegaTrends Fund, 2.01%
Salesforce.com, Inc.: 0.0%
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.: 0.0%
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.: 0.0%
MetLife, Inc.: 0.0%
Lincoln National Corp.: 0.0%
U.S. Steel Corp.: 0.0%
Allegheny Technologies, Inc.: 0.0%
J.C. Penney Co., Inc.: 0.0%
SPDR Gold Shares: Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 0.91%; World Precious Minerals Fund, 0.98%; China Region Fund, 0.40%; All American Equity Fund, 0.27%; Holmes Growth Fund, 0.17%; Eastern European Fund, 0.17%; Global Emerging Markets Fund, 0.54%
Baja Mining Corp.: 0.0%
International Tower Hill Mines Ltd: 0.0%
Gold Fields Ltd: Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 0.02%
Vale S.A.: 0.0%
BP plc: Global Resources Fund, 2.12%
Boart Longyear Limited: 0.0%
BHP Billiton Ltd: 0.0%

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry.
The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.
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The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver.
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The Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Index (XU100) is a capitalization-weighted index composed of National Market companies except investment trusts.
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