Third Quarter 2020

**On July 1, 2020, the Holmes Macro Trends Fund (MEGAX) changed its name and investment strategy to the Global Luxury Goods Fund (USLUX).

The Global Luxury Goods Fund had a total return of 9.80 percent in the third quarter of 2020, outperforming its benchmark, the S&P 1500 Index, which returned 8.56 percent. See complete fund performance here. The fund’s lead over the benchmark was mainly a result of overweighting the consumer discretionary sector.

U.S. equities rallied sharply for a second straight quarter in a Q3 that saw the S&P and Nasdaq hit a string of new record highs. Growth continued to outperform value on the back of its outsized leverage to the central bank liquidity tailwind and secular growth and disruption themes.

The biggest tailwind for stocks remained the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in response to the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, the Fed announced its highly anticipated policy framework shift under which it will seek to make up for past inflation shortfalls and allow the labor market to run hotter. Despite the recent sharp pullback in those industries most affected by COVID-19, the overall consumer discretionary sector continues to outperform the market, due to strong gains in the e-commerce space.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Strengths

  • The fund’s overweight allocation to consumer discretionary contributed the most toward performance. Consumer discretionary was the best performing sector with homebuilders, housing-related retailers and casual diners some of the standouts.
  • The fund’s stock selection in the consumer discretionary sector proved skillful, evidenced by the strong contribution to performance.
  • Investments in Tesla, Apple and Home Depot were among the best contributors to fund performance.

Weaknesses

  • The fund’s underweight allocation to information technology was the largest drag on performance due to the fund’s model underweighting the sector.
  • The fund’s stock selection in the financial sector showed poor performance, failing to produce satisfactory results.
  • Investments in Pernod Treasury Wine Estates, Galaxy Entertainment Group, and UBS Group were among the greatest detractors to the fund’s performance.

Outlook

The retail earnings season is about to kick off and analysts still have their eyes fixed on the extended impact of the pandemic, a possible vaccine and the economy’s continued reopening. Ahead of earnings reports, much of Wall Street has lowered expectations for fashion and footwear companies’ financials in tandem with many retailers’ decision to slash their guidance due to potential coronavirus-related disruptions. A slew of retailers have established a solid digital presence and shifted to more leisurely wear as COVID-19 forced consumers to hunker down at home. The coronavirus is still a very important part of the consumer mindset, particularly with cases rising and while there’s still substantial uncertainty, we can take some cues from the summer — with people getting into outdoor activities and spending time indoors — and apply those to how the fall/winter might be expected to unfold. Brands that capitalize on the rise of outdoor and athletic as well as casual categories with a direct-to-consumer or digital-first mindset will continue to thrive. With consumers cutting back on dining out and traveling, apparel brands have an opportunity to capture more of the consumer’s discretionary budget. Digital capabilities, product innovation and a flexible supply chain remain incredibly important, and another round of fiscal stimulus, whenever that happens, will buoy consumption.

 

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. There is no guarantee that the issuers of any securities will declare dividends in the future or that, if declared, will remain at current levels or increase over time. The Standard & Poor's 1500 Composite is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of 1500 U.S. companies and is comprised of the S&P 400, S&P 500, and the S&P 600. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. It is not possible to invest in an index.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Global Luxury Goods Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 9/30/2020: Tesla (8.23%), Apple Inc (3.46%), Home Depot Inc/The (3.94%), Pernod Treasury Wine Estates (0.00%), Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd (2.13%), UBS Group AG (3.07%).

Net Asset Value
as of 10/26/2020

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $4.83 -0.14 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $13.23 -0.22 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $4.73 -0.20 China Region Fund USCOX $9.42 -0.08 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $5.39 -0.10 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $23.97 -0.39 Global Luxury Goods Fund USLUX $17.07 -0.33 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.24 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change