Fourth Quarter 2016

The Holmes Macro Trends Fund had a total return of 7.10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, outperforming its benchmark, the S&P Composite 1500 Index, which returned 4.32 percent. Overall, smaller companies and growth-oriented stocks underperformed. See complete fund performance here.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Strengths

  • Stock selection was strong in information technology, consumer staples and health care.
  • The fund’s overweight in industrials helped overall performance
  • Alaska Air Group, Ruth’s Hospitality Group and Southwest Airlines were among the best contributors to fund performance.

Weaknesses

  • A higher cash allocation was a detractor to fund performance.
  • Stock selection was ineffective in financials, the fund’s third largest allocation, making it the principal driver of underperformance.
  • Investments in Kraton Corporation, Manhattan Associates and Pitney Bowes were among the worst contributors to the fund’s performance.

Opportunities

  • Economists comment that Donald Trump is not a supporter of net neutrality. Republicans seem to oppose any effort to establish a competitive market for broadband. Presumably, large wired broadband providers such as AT&T could prosper under such a regime.
  • Media mogul Oprah Winfrey says she lost 40 pounds on Weight Watchers, making the stock soar. Weight Watchers rolled out a new ad campaign featuring claims that Winfrey lost 40 pounds on the system. The stock jumped about 11 percent in pre-market trading after the announcement.
  • Amazon is in talks with several organizations, including the NFL, NBA and MLB, to start streaming sports on Prime.

Threats

  • Barron's couldn't find anyone that thinks the stock market will tank in 2017. Once again, all the analysts were in agreement that "this bull market has legs," as the headline of Vito Racanelli’s article reads. Such one-sided bullish consensus could be a contrarian sign.
  • Trump's tweets continue to move markets. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF fell after the president-elect said in a Time magazine interview that "I’m going to bring down drug prices. I don’t like what’s happened with drug prices."
  • According to BCA, The S&P materials sector is rolling over relative to the broader market after a brief bout of strength. Downside risks remain acute. The strong U.S. dollar will exact a toll on U.S. exporters, particularly if emerging markets and China do not experience acceleration in final demand.

The S&P 1500 Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of 1500 U.S. companies and is comprised of the S&P 400, S&P 500, and the S&P 600. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 30, 1994.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Holmes Macro Trends Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2016: Alaska Air Group Inc. 0.00%, Ruth's Hospitality Group Inc. 0.00%, Southwest Airlines Co. 0.00%, Kraton Corp. 2.52%, Manhattan Associates Inc. 0.00%, Pitney Bowes Inc. 4.78%, AT&T Inc. 0.00%, Weight Watchers International Inc. 0.00%, Amazon.com Inc. 0.00%, iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF 0.00%.

Net Asset Value
as of 02/21/2017

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $5.80 0.01 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $8.83 -0.02 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $7.56 -0.13 China Region Fund USCOX $8.19 0.02 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $6.23 0.07 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $24.62 0.16 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $19.03 0.16 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.22 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change