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January 2010

In January, the Barclay’s Municipal Bond Index rose by 0.52 percent as questions arose regarding the strength of the global economy. Broadly speaking, economic data was generally positive but trouble spots remain. Manufacturing indicators continue to improve and are a good early indicator that the economy is recovering. Housing is struggling to make significant headway and appears to be bouncing along with no clear confirmation of a recovery at hand. Consumer confidence has recovered some but still remains somewhat depressed as high unemployment takes its toll on consumer outlook.

Returns in the municipal market were driven by the middle of the curve, as the 5- to 10- year portion of the curve outperformed. In specialty state trading, Puerto Rico, Ohio and California outperformed, while, Texas, Illinois and Arizona lagged. As a group, revenue bonds outperformed general obligation credits; with relative strength seen in hospitals and industrial development issues. Lower-quality bonds generally underperformed, as BBB-rated bonds rose one percent, while AAA-rated bonds appreciated just 40 basis points. Central bankers and policy makers around the world remain accommodative even as the global economy appears to be in recovery mode. The Fed left interest rates unchanged during the month and the Fed seems to be in no hurry to change policy at the moment.  The Fed will likely wait until the economy is showing definitive signs of a recovery before taking action to raise interest rates.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index representative of the tax-exempt bond market.


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