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Fourth Quarter 2011

The U.S. economy appeared to pick up speed during the fourth quarter as employment indicators improved, manufacturing indicators reaccelerated and consumer confidence bounced back sharply. The unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent in December and nonfarm payrolls have shown unspectacular but consistent growth over the past few months. The December ISM Manufacturing Index has shown strength, rising solidly back into expansion territory. The JP Morgan Global Purchasing Manager’s Index moved back into expansion territory in December after three consecutive months indicating contraction. Consumer confidence rose back to levels seen early this year and retailers appear to have had a good holiday selling season.

The sentiment surrounding the ongoing European financial crisis improved during the quarter as the EU government introduced various policy measures to deal with it but an overhang remains as long-term solutions are still somewhat elusive.

Inflation has finally rolled over globally and governments have shifted their focus away from inflation concerns and back to growth. This will allow global central banks to implement more stimulative policies to support global economic growth.  The Federal Reserve has more or less stayed the course and policy remains unchanged, allowing other countries to catch up with the Fed’s stimulative policies.

For the quarter, the yield on the three-month Treasury Bill fell 1 basis point to 0.01 percent, while the yield on the six-month Treasury Bill rose slightly to 6 basis points from 5 basis points. Yields on longer-term money market instruments such as one-year agency bonds were lower by 1 basis point to yield 0.14 percent.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The ISM manufacturing composite index is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eight sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms from 21 industries in all 50 states. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.


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