Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again

Note: Some things really are too good to be true. Contrary to recent reports, gold will not be reclassified as a High Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) under Basel III—at least not yet. While gold already qualifies as a Tier 1 asset under the Basel Capital Accords, meaning it carries a 0% risk weight, it is not currently recognized as an HQLA. Both the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the World Gold Council (WGC) are actively advocating for gold’s inclusion as an HQLA, which many market experts and investors, myself included, believe it should be. We apologize for any confusion. You can read the LBMA’s official comments here.  

For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.

As of July 1, 2025, gold will officially be classified as a Tier 1, high-quality liquid asset (HQLA) under the Basel III banking regulations. That means U.S. banks can count physical gold, at 100% of its market value, toward their core capital reserves. No longer will it be marked down by 50% as a “Tier 3” asset, as it was under the old rules.

This is a seismic shift in how regulators perceive gold, and it’s a long-overdue recognition of what many of us have known for decades: Gold is money. And it’s the kind of money you want to own when the world is on fire.

Central Banks Know that Gold Is Real Money. Shouldn’t You?

Obviously, I’m not the only one who believes this. Central banks have been leading the charge for 15 years. In the first quarter, central banks added 244 metric tons of gold to their official reserves, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). That’s 24% above the five-year quarterly average.

This isn’t a one-off anomaly. It’s part of a longer-term trend that began in earnest after the 2008 financial crisis and accelerated after gold’s reclassification under Basel III in 2019. According to the WGC, about 30% of central banks say they plan to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months—the highest level ever recorded in their survey.

Why are central banks buying gold? The same reason you or I would: to protect against currency debasement, geopolitical turmoil and runaway debt. As global fiat currencies get printed with increasing abandon, I believe the yellow metal remains one of the few truly finite, unprintable stores of value.

So, if the world’s central banks are moving into gold, shouldn’t retail investors be doing the same?

The Retail Reawakening

The answer, thankfully, is yes. According to Gallup’s latest polling data, nearly a quarter of U.S. adults now say gold is the best long-term investment—a sharp increase from last year, and well above the 16% who say stocks. Only real estate ranked higher.

This could be significant. For the first time in over a decade, Americans say they’re prioritizing gold over equities. Investors appear to be increasingly skeptical of the stock market’s near-term trajectory, and they’re returning to what has historically worked in times of uncertainty.

I’ve said for years that gold belongs in every diversified portfolio. Back in 2020, I told CNBC that I believed gold could hit $4,000 an ounce on looser monetary policy and central bank balance sheet expansion. Fast forward to today, and the metal is trading at $3,340.

Today I’d like to adjust my forecast.

With the implementation of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, continued global uncertainty and rising central bank gold demand, I now believe gold could go as high as $6,000 an ounce over the medium- to long-term.

The Curious Case of Gold Miners

But here’s where things get interesting—and puzzling. While gold prices continue to make new all-time highs, gold mining stocks have been seeing sustained outflows.

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which tracks many of the world’s largest publicly traded gold producers, has been bleeding capital for months. Even as gold prices surge, weekly fund flows have been negative, with investors pulling billions out of mining equities.

This disconnect is hard to ignore. It points to a deeper concern investors may have about the operational and financial health of mining companies. Unlike physical gold, which simply tracks the spot price, miners are exposed to cost inflation, labor shortages, geopolitical risk and more. These headwinds aren’t new, though, and they shouldn’t obscure the fundamental leverage that quality mining stocks offer in a rising gold environment.

Historically, gold stocks tend to lag the metal itself until higher prices are deemed sustainable.
Institutional capital tends to wait for the “all clear” sign. That often means retail investors can front-run the rotation. If gold prices stay elevated—or go higher, as I expect—I believe we’ll see renewed flows into the mining space.

Meanwhile, we’ve seen investors increasingly favor physically backed gold ETFs and streaming/royalty companies as lower-risk ways to gain exposure. That’s understandable. These vehicles offer gold’s upside with fewer operational headaches.
But let’s not forget that miners still dig the stuff out of the ground. When margins improve, they can offer significant torque.

Be the Bank

Basel III is more than a regulatory change. I believe it’s a validation. It affirms what many of us have long believed about gold’s status as a monetary asset and a hedge against chaos.

If the world’s most powerful financial institutions are increasing their gold exposure, and regulatory bodies are reclassifying it as a top-tier liquid asset, what’s holding the average investor back?

As always, I recommend a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical gold (bars, coins, jewelry) and 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks, mutual funds and/or ETFs. Remember to rebalance on a regular basis.

Index Summary

• The major market indices finished down this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.16%. The S&P 500 Stock Index fell 0.47%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.27%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index gained 0.12% this week.
• The Hang Seng Composite gained 1.14% this week; while Taiwan was up 0.61% and the KOSPI rose 0.68%.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 7 basis points to 4.385%.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was Air Canada, up 18%. According to Bank of America, Japan Airlines’ fourth quarter EBIT of ¥28 billion was ahead of consensus (¥20 billion). The better results were boosted by strong fourth quarter international unit revenues (up 10.7% year-over-year).

• The U.S. government reached a truce with the Houthi rebels agreeing to a suspension of its attacks on Yemen in return for an end to attacks on commercial shipping in the region, reports Reuters. This agreement suggests that the U.S. offensive in the region has been effective as it is reported that this agreement is not contingent on a resolution in the Israel-Hamas conflict and may likely lead to a stabilization in conditions in the region for commercial shipping. 
• According to RBC, IAG published first quarter 2025 results and delivered operating profit pre-exceptionals of €198m, (49% ahead of company-compiled consensus median estimate of €133m). Unit revenues were ahead of VA consensus of positive 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter, with pricing up 3.2% year-over-year.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was Make My Trip, down 13%. Statistics Canada reported passenger traffic in March by arrival. For the month, transborder traffic was 1.3MM, which was 3.7% lower year-over-year, an acceleration from February’s 2% year-over-year drop. March transborder air traffic was 9.9% below 2019 levels.
• UBS reports that logistics companies and port data indicate a 20–40% decline in China-U.S. shipping volumes in recent weeks. This comes despite July and August historically being the busiest months on the transpacific route, pointing to demand erosion following recent front-loading and potential demand destruction tied to the final round of U.S.-China tariffs.
• Airbus SE reported 56 deliveries in April, down 8% year-over-year. Year-to-date deliveries total 192 aircraft, 5% lower than the same period last year. Despite the slow start to 2025, Airbus has maintained its full-year delivery target of 820, according to RBC.

Opportunities

• Dallas Fort Worth International Airport and American Airlines Group Inc. reached an agreement on a $4 billion expansion project. The two said in a statement Thursday that the plan will increase the number of gates at the new terminal to 31, more than twice as many as initially envisioned. It will be used exclusively by the airline, according to Bloomberg.
• UBS concludes that ocean carriers could benefit the most in terms of incremental EBIT as a percentage of current market cap. Maersk >18% short interest, in its view, leaves a risk/reward skewed to the upside in the short term in a scenario of a China – U.S. trade deal.
• Open rotor technology offers airlines two key benefits: over 20% fuel savings and progress toward climate goals. With U.S. airlines spending $48.2 billion on fuel in 2024, that translates to a potential $9.6 billion in savings, according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Airlines also face mounting pressure to boost efficiency in line with government and industry targets, including net zero emissions by 2050. Bank of America sees revolutionary engine designs like open rotor as the only realistic path to significant gains in propulsion fuel efficiency.

Threats

• Given recent news around the disruption in Newark, UBS looked at exposure to Newark for each airline. United Airlines has already announced cancellation of 35 daily round trip flights, and not surprisingly, has the most exposure to EWR with 11% of its total scheduled capacity for the second quarter of 2025 originating from Newark. This is followed by JetBlue (2.4%) and Alaska (2.1%).
• UBS estimates 50% of Port of LA imports are coming from China. Several logistics companies have reported a 30% decline in China-U.S. volumes in April. The data from Port of LA suggests the rate of decline may decelerate or the imports from other Asian countries are picking up sequentially.
• The EU is reportedly planning to impose tariffs on Boeing aircraft as part of proposed retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs if trade talks fail, according to the Financial Times. In 2024, the EU imported €18 billion worth of aircraft and parts from the U.S., according to Eurostat and the FT. Europe is a key market for Boeing, accounting for 19% of its order book—including 12% of the 777, 9% of the 787, and 22% of the 737 MAX, according to Cirium data.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Zalando, the Germany-based fashion e-commerce platform, reported a 7.9% year-over-year increase in group revenue for the first quarter, reaching €2.42 billion. Net income turned positive at €9.9 million, compared to a loss of €8.9 million in the same period last year. The company achieved a record 52.4 million active customers, adding nearly 3 million over the past 12 months. For 2025, Zalando expects group revenue to grow between 4% and 9%.
• Eurozone manufacturing PMI continued to improve in April, rising to 49.0 from 48.6 in March-the highest level in 32 months-though it remains just below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The services PMI edged down to 50.1 but remained in expansionary territory.
• Melco International was the top-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury sector, rising 16.3% over the past five days. Shares gained primarily due to strong first-quarter 2025 financial results reported by its key subsidiary, Melco Resorts & Entertainment. Melco Resorts posted an 11% year-on-year increase in total operating revenues, with net income more than doubling to $32.5 million compared to the same period last year.

Weaknesses

• Wynn Resorts reported weaker sales for the first quarter of 2025. Operating revenues fell 8.7% year-over-year to $1.70 billion, down from $1.86 billion in the same period of 2024. This decline was seen across all major properties, including significant drops at Wynn Macau and Wynn Palace, as well as smaller decreases at Las Vegas operations and Encore Boston Harbor.
• The final April S&P Global US Services PMI came in at 50.8, slightly above expectations but down from March’s 51.4. The slowdown reflects softer demand and easing business confidence, adding to signs of broader weakness across the global services sector.
• RealReal, an online marketplace for luxury goods, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, falling 31.9%. The RealReal’s shares plunged over 30% this week after its first quarter 2025 earnings report revealed weaker-than-expected guidance and ongoing profitability concerns, despite some revenue growth and operational improvements.

Opportunities

• China’s Labor Day holiday travel data shows strong improvement, with 314 million domestic trips taken during the five-day period—a 6.5% year-over-year increase. Inbound tourism orders surged by 130%, driven by relaxed visa policies and new tax refund incentives, attracting more international visitors to both major cities and smaller destinations. Overall holiday spending rose 8% to nearly 180.3 billion yuan ($25 billion), signaling a rebound in consumer confidence despite ongoing economic challenges.
• Tesla’s sales in Europe continue to decline as the company continues to lose its market share to Chinese and European competitors. In the UK, Tesla registered only 512 new cars last month, a 62% drop compared to the previous year, while Chinese automaker BYD sold 2,511 vehicles in April, marking a 650% increase. Other European markets saw even steeper declines for Tesla, with sales falling 81% in Sweden and 74% in the Netherlands.

• Friedrich Merz was confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor after winning a second-round parliamentary vote, ending months of political uncertainty. His coalition with the Social Democrats was formed to keep the far-right AfD, which finished second in the February election, out of power. The alliance aims to bring greater stability to German politics and maintain a barrier against far-right influence.

Threats

• The outcome of this weekend’s high-level trade talks in Switzerland between U.S. and China represents a major threat for increased stock market volatility. These are the first official negotiations since last month’s tariff escalation, which saw U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports rise to 145%, matched by China’s retaliatory 125% duties. Markets are on edge, as any sign of progress could spark a rally, while a breakdown or escalation could trigger a sharp sell-off.
• Barclays downgraded LVMH from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight” and cut its price target to €550 from €755, citing ongoing margin pressure and a weakening recovery outlook for the company’s core Fashion & Leather Goods division. Analyst Carole Madjo noted that this key segment—which includes Louis Vuitton and Dior—may not return to growth this year, especially given the slowdown in the U.S. luxury market and persistent headwinds in other regions.
• Several global automakers continue to report weaker sales in China. Ferrari saw a 25% year-over-year drop in first-quarter sales, though strong demand for new and customized models drove solid overall results. BMW’s China sales fell 17%, its weakest first quarter, but gains in European EV sales helped offset the decline.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was crude oil, rising 4.53%, driven by geopolitical developments and resilient demand amid ongoing trade shifts. While the U.S.-UK trade deal sent shockwaves through Britain’s ethanol industry by removing tariffs on U.S. imports, it also underscored the dominance of fossil fuels in global trade flows. As biofuels face competitive pressure, traditional energy sources like oil continue to assert their pricing power and global relevance at these new price levels.
• Indian liquefied natural gas importers have signed a flurry of long-term purchase agreements linked to the U.S. price benchmark, the latest effort by the nation’s buyers to protect themselves from volatile markets. State-owned companies have signed at least four contracts since December, totaling nearly 11 million tons per year, priced to the Henry Hub Index, according to executives familiar with the deals.
• GE Vernova is emerging as a leader in next-generation nuclear energy, securing a $20.9 billion deal with Ontario Power Generation to build four small modular reactors, the first such commitment by a G7 nation. GE Vernova is set to benefit from rising global demand for clean, scalable energy to power AI data centers and future grid needs. Reinforcing investor confidence, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank, backed all six proposals ahead of GE Vernova’s May 14 AGM, underscoring institutional support for the company’s strategic direction and governance.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing commodity for the week was lumber, dropping 4.42%, on Fed policy speak. After this week’s meeting, it appears the Fed is less likely to drop interest rates in the near term, keeping interest rates elevated which makes it more difficult to buy a home.
• Peabody Energy has suspended financing for its $3.8 billion acquisition of Anglo American’s metallurgical coal assets, citing uncertainty surrounding the fire-damaged Moranbah North mine—the deal’s key asset. With underwriters unwilling to proceed without clarity, Peabody has issued a material adverse change notice, signaling the transaction may be at risk of collapse.
• Crude prices dropped sharply on Monday, with WTI nearing four-year lows and down nearly 20% year-to-date. Expectations of higher OPEC+ supply are weighing on prices, as the group plans to increase June production by 0.4 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs lowered its price forecast by $2–$3 per barrel, anticipating another 400,000 barrels per day increase in July. However, comments from Trump suggesting a softer stance on China and progress toward a trade deal with the UK helped the market recover and post a weekly gain by Friday.

Opportunities

• In-Q-Tel, the CIA’s venture capital arm, recently announced an investment in Alta Resources, a Colorado-based startup using advanced biochemistry to reinvent mineral extraction. The company engineers custom proteins that selectively extract rare-earth elements and critical minerals from complex materials, enabling recovery from previously uneconomical or environmentally harmful sources. While bioleaching is a proven but challenging method, tailored proteins may offer a more effective solution.
• The White House announced that the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council (Permitting Council) has released the second batch of critical mineral production projects to be designated as FAST-41 transparency projects. According to Bank of America, this ongoing series is part of the response to President Trump’s Executive Order and aims to provide greater transparency through the Federal Permitting Dashboard.
• If Shell Plc were to acquire BP Plc, it would be among the largest deals in European history, creating for the first time a European oil major that could challenge industry leaders Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. The deal would be transformative for Shell, according to Bloomberg.

Threats

• Oil and gas drilling permit applications in Texas—the top U.S. oil-producing state—fell to their lowest level last month since February 2021, according to consultancy Enverus. Operators in Texas submitted 570 new drilling permit applications in April, down from 795 in March, amid concerns that rising OPEC+ supplies and a potential trade war will continue to pressure crude prices.
• A nickel plant at a major metal-processing hub in Indonesia has restarted after a deadly landslide in March forced a suspension of nearly all production. PT QMB New Energy Materials Co. Ltd.—whose shareholders include China’s GEM Co., Tsingshan Holding Group Co., and Guangdong Brunp Recycling Technology Co. Ltd.—is now operating at 70% to 80% of capacity, according to Bloomberg.
• Diamondback Energy Inc., the largest independent oil producer in the Permian Basin, says production has likely peaked in America’s prolific shale fields and will decline in the months ahead after crude prices plunged. The Texas-based company trimmed its full-year production forecast and said in a letter to investors that it expects the number of onshore oil rigs across the U.S. industry to fall by nearly 10% by the end of the second quarter, with further declines to follow.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the best performer for the week was PEPE, rising 40.75%.
• Bitcoin approached $100,000 for the first time since February, rising as much as 3.2% to $99,894 as most major tokens climbed higher. The rally extends a move that began Wednesday after announcements of U.S. trade talks with China, signaling a possible de-escalation in the tariff standoff between the world’s two largest economies, writes Bloomberg. 
• Ether led a broad cryptocurrency rally this week, heading for its strongest gains since 2021, bolstered by easing global trade tensions and optimism over a network upgrade. The second-largest digital token by market value jumped as much as 14% on Friday to $2,490, explains Bloomberg.

Weaknesses

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the worst performer for the week was Kai, down 3.75%.
• Alex Mashinsky, founder of Celsius Network, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for defrauding hundreds of thousands of customers with high interest rates on digital asset deposits. Mashinsky pleaded guilty, says Bloomberg, and admitted to making misleading statements about Celsius’ financial health while engaging in manipulative trading to inflate the price of Celsius CEL token.
• Core Scientific reported first-quarter total revenue that missed the average analyst estimate. The decline in digital assets self-mining gross profit was primarily driven by an $82.8 million decrease in self-mining revenue, resulting from a 75% drop in Bitcoin mined due to the halving, according to Bloomberg.

Opportunities

• Coinbase Global has agreed to acquire Deribit, the world’s largest Bitcoin and Ether options exchange, for $2.9 billion. The deal underscores Coinbase’s bold expansion into the high-growth crypto derivatives market, where Deribit’s total trading volume nearly doubled last year to $1.2 trillion. The acquisition includes $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase stock.

• Cantor Fitzgerald is launching a new digital asset venture, Twenty One Capital, aiming to emulate Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy playbook by raising capital to accumulate Bitcoin and invest in related products and infrastructure. According to Bloomberg, the firm has ambitious plans, including native lending models, capital market instruments, and Bitcoin-focused content and media.
• A subsidiary of Strive Enterprise is merging with Asset Entities to form a Bitcoin treasury company. The new company operating under the Strive brand aims to build a “Bitcoin war chest” with a long-term investment approach designed to outperform the world’s largest cryptocurrency, writes Bloomberg. 

Threats

• German authorities closed down the crypto-swapping service “eXch” located in the nation and seized assets worth $38 million. It’s the third largest seizure of crypto assets in the history of Germany’s federal criminal police office. 
• Crypto bank Sygnum predicts Solana will struggle to outperform Ethereum due to its reliance on meme coin-driven revenue. The report raises concerns about Solana’s tokenomics, noting that most fees are distributed to validators rather than contributing value to the SOL token, according to Crypto News Flash.
• Democratic senators are demanding answers from top federal officials about ties between crypto giant Biance and Trump family-related digital asset ventures. The senators’ concerns are driven by a $2 billion investment in Binance by an Abu Dhabi-based company which used a digital toke issued by a Trump family-controlled company to settle the deal, writes Bloomberg.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• Sustained momentum in U.S. defense spending is reflected in major multi-year contracts: Rocket Lab and Stoke Space secured $5.6 billion from the U.S. Air Force for national security launches, while General Dynamics landed a $727.8 million contract for tank ammunition. These long-term agreements reinforce strategic readiness, secure industrial capacity, and signal bipartisan support for advanced deterrence.
• Artificial intelligence is becoming structurally embedded in core workflows, with Google reporting that over 30% of its code is now AI-generated and Nvidia launching high-performance decision models like Nemotron 15B through ServiceNow. This indicates that AI is no longer a speculative edge but a foundational layer of enterprise infrastructure.
• The best performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was Cadre Holdings, rising 18.96%, after first-quarter sales and adjusted EBITDA beat estimates, prompting the company to raise its full-year 2025 guidance for both revenue and earnings.

Weaknesses

• Operational reliability in tech infrastructure remains fragile, as Microsoft’s April Kerberos update caused widespread authentication failures and Oracle suffered a serious healthcare data breach leading to FBI involvement. These lapses expose critical vulnerabilities in systems considered essential for public services and cloud-reliant defense operations.
• Despite strong market narratives, job cuts in cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike—500 employees or 5% of the workforce—highlight operational frictions and post-crisis recovery issues after last year’s software update failure. This suggests that even high-growth sectors remain sensitive to customer trust and execution risk.
• The worst performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was Rocket Lab USA, declining 10.79% despite 32% year-over-year revenue growth and a solid outlook. The slight earnings per share miss, and already high expectations amid recent volatility, led investors to take profits.

Opportunities

• Ukraine’s move to lift its arms export ban, combined with a $310 million F-16 training and sustainment deal with U.S. firms, signals a pivot toward deeper integration with Western defense supply chains. This opens dual-track opportunities: near-term defense support and long-term involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction and resource extraction.
• U.S.-UK trade and defense cooperation is strengthening, as evidenced by the UK’s $10 billion Boeing order within a broader transatlantic trade framework. The deal not only boosts aerospace demand but signals alignment in industrial policy and security strategy amid rising geopolitical polarization.

• Microsoft’s $800 million carbon capture initiative, the largest of its kind, positions the company as a first mover in scaling environmental solutions. This move aligns ESG mandates with the growing energy demands of AI infrastructure, providing a blueprint for responsible innovation.

Threats

• The Israeli government’s decision to escalate military operations in Gaza, combined with warnings for civilians to evacuate Yemen’s capital airport, suggests the conflict may evolve into a broader regional crisis. This increases the risk of disruptions to trade routes, oil infrastructure, and defense asset positioning across the Middle East.
• India and Pakistan are entering a new phase of hostilities, with India launching deep strikes in Kashmir and Pakistan retaliating by downing five fighter jets. The rhetoric and military actions on both sides suggest a dangerous escalation path between nuclear-armed states with historical volatility.
• Tariff-driven uncertainty is impacting the U.S. defense sector, as RTX warned of an $850 million hit to 2025 profits due to ongoing trade friction. While demand remains strong, protectionist policies could distort pricing, disrupt supply chains, and complicate cross-border joint programs.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed at $3,344.10, up $100.80 per ounce, or 3.11%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week higher by 6.14%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up 3.94%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 0.30%.

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 3.77%, with platinum not far behind as one of the top performers. Ivanhoe Mines reached a major milestone at its Platreef project in South Africa, with mining crews accessing the massive, high-grade orebody for the first time. The Platreef mine—projected to become one of the world’s lowest-cost and largest primary platinum producers—contains over 50 million ounces of indicated precious metals and is expected to deliver decades of stable supply. This progress underscores platinum’s strategic value in securing long-term sources of clean energy and industrial metals.
• OceanaGold hit an all-time high, surging 13% to C$5.73, as momentum builds following a standout first quarter marked by strong earnings, zero debt, and $312 million in trailing 12-month free cash flow. The company’s performance and growth outlook have positioned it well for a potential U.S. listing aimed at broadening its investor base.

• Kinross reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.30, a beat against the Street at $0.24. The beat against CIBC’s estimate was driven by strong production of 512,000 ounces and lower operating costs. Free cash flow of $371 million beat estimates of $307 million.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the week was silver, though it still gained 2.14%. Silver prices remain range-bound between $32 and $35, with traders capitalizing on short-term volatility ahead of potential catalysts from U.S.-China trade talks. While technical momentum is muted, fundamentals received a boost from Aya Gold & Silver, which reported a 200%+ surge in first quarter silver production and reaffirmed its 2025 guidance based on strong operational performance at the Zgounder Mine. The combination of steady industrial demand and positive supply-side momentum supports a constructive outlook for silver.
• Gold declined on Tuesday and Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and President Donald Trump teased plans to announce a “major” trade deal on Thursday, boosting optimism around potential tariff relief. However, gold rebounded on Thursday and Friday as the news turned out to be a nonevent.
• Gold Fields Ltd. and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. have suspended talks to combine two mines in Ghana, more than two years after proposing the joint venture. The companies agreed to “pause discussions” on merging the Iduapriem and Tarkwa assets to focus on improving its respective standalone operations, according to statements released Tuesday.

Opportunities

• The upcoming Basel III “Endgame” rules, effective July 1, 2025, will allow U.S. banks to count physical gold as a Tier 1 asset for reserve requirements, equivalent to cash or U.S. Treasuries. This is expected to boost institutional demand as banks seek to hold more allocated gold, reducing exposure to riskier “paper” gold. Recognized as a zero-risk reserve asset, gold’s safe-haven appeal grows, making it a strategic tool for banks to strengthen balance sheets amid tighter global regulations.
• According to Bank of America, the Gold Road Board has unanimously recommended the final takeover offer from Gold Fields (GFI). The all-cash offer values GOR at A$3.40 per share ($3.7bn), including a fixed $2.52 per share (which incorporates GOR’s planned $0.35 per share special dividend upon the scheme’s approval), marking an 11% increase from the previous offer of $2.27 per share.
• Turaco Gold has reported a 41% increase in the Afema Gold Project’s resource, bringing it to 90.8 million tons and 3.55 million ounces overall. Notably, the Indicated resource has grown by 17% compared to the August 2024 estimate. Canaccord had expected the resource to exceed 3 million ounces, so the 3.55 million ounces is a strong outcome for TCG.

Threats

• Spot gold could face headwinds if investors pull back on safe-haven investments amid hopes for constructive trade talks between the U.S. and China next week. Momentum traders may see the risk of a double top forming in gold, which could concern recent bullish positions expecting new record highs. Additionally, the 200-day moving average is about 18% below current levels, according to Bloomberg.
• The surge in gold investment demand, driving prices to record levels, has been offset by sharply lower jewelry purchases. Bank of America’s supply and demand model suggests that gold can trade comfortably above $3,000 per ounce, but not above $3,500 per ounce for now, especially if trade disputes ease. For further gains, investment in gold would need to increase, and jewelry demand would need to stabilize.
• Thirteen gold-mining workers were killed after being kidnapped in an area of Peru known for violence, according to a statement from Compañía Minera Poderosa S.A. The workers were employed at a small mine operated by a contractor for Poderosa, one of Peru’s largest gold producers. At least 39 workers have been killed in recent years in disputes over control of the gold-rich area of Pataz, in northern Peru, according to Poderosa.

U.S. Global Investors, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). This does not mean that we are sponsored, recommended, or approved by the SEC, or that our abilities or qualifications in any respect have been passed upon by the SEC or any officer of the SEC.

This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product. Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (03/31/2025): 

Japan Airlines

Airbus SE

American Airlines

Maersk

United Airlines

JetBlue

Alaska Airlines

Boeing

General Dynamics

Zalando’s

Tesla

LVMH

Anglo American

Shell PLC

BP PLC

Ivanhoe Mines

OceanaGold Corp.

Aya Gold & Silver

Gold Fields Ltd.

AngloGold Ashanti

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.

The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.