Is It Time to Buy the Dip in Luxury Stocks?

If you’ve been following the luxury sector, you’ve probably seen your fair share of sobering news.

On the surface, it may look like the era of high-end handbags and bespoke suits is coming to an end.

But dig a little deeper, and a different story emerges—one filled with opportunity for the patient, value-oriented investor.

I’ve studied markets for decades, and if there’s one thing I know, it’s that cyclical downturns often present the best entry points. I believe the current luxury slump is no exception. In fact, the data tells me we may be on the verge of a comeback.

Luxury’s Slow Year May Be the Setup for Its Next Great Comeback

Last year, global luxury sales posted their weakest performance since the 2008 financial crisis—excluding the COVID years—and 2025 isn’t off to a roaring start, either. Bain & Company projects sales will shrink by another 2% to 5% this year. That’s not what you’d expect from an industry that’s historically grown at twice the rate of global GDP.

But here’s the thing: This isn’t the first time luxury has hit a soft patch, and every time, it’s come back stronger.

Take 2015, for example. Back then, consumers began to turn away from flashy logos, and major brands like Louis Vuitton were forced to rethink their design philosophy. The result? A pivot to more understated, timeless styles like the Capucines bag, now one of LV’s bestsellers. Sales bounced back, and those who kept the faith were richly rewarded.

Will Steeper Costs Deter High-End Shoppers?

Tariffs are the 800-pound gorilla in the room. The Trump administration recently struck a new trade deal with the European Union, raising import duties on European goods from 10% to 15%. That’s got some investors worried about rising prices and shrinking margins for European luxury brands selling in the U.S.

According to UBS, a 15% tariff translates to about a 2% price increase in the U.S., or just 1% globally if brands adjust across markets. That may be manageable, especially for a high-net-worth individual (HNWI) with the means to drop $8,000 on a cashmere cardigan or $10 million on the original Hermès Birkin. For these shoppers, it’s all about status, scarcity and quality, not necessity.

The Return of Chinese Tourists

No discussion of luxury is complete without China. Before the pandemic, Chinese travelers accounted for roughly two-thirds of their luxury spending outside of China. That changed when the pandemic hit, and many brands pivoted to local markets.

Now, with international travel picking up again, we may be on the cusp of a reversal. Chinese tourists are venturing back into Europe, where luxury goods often sell for 5% to 45% less than in China due to taxes and pricing strategies. That price gap creates an irresistible incentive to buy abroad.

To be clear, sales in mainland China are still soft. Bain estimated a 20% drop last year, and some brands like Richemont reported a 23% decline.

But the secular tailwind of rising wealth in China hasn’t gone away. In 2024 alone, over 141,000 new millionaires were minted in China—more than 380 a day. Over time, that wealth will find its way into high-end purchases, whether from Western brands or increasingly popular domestic designers.

America’s Quiet Wealth Boom

Closer to home, the U.S. continues to lead the world in absolute wealth. According to the latest UBS Global Wealth Report, the country now boasts nearly 24 million millionaires—more than the next seven countries combined. That’s nearly 40% of the world’s total.

And that number is only expected to grow. UBS forecasts that 5.3 million Americans will join the millionaire club by 2029, a nearly 9% increase. This matters because luxury demand tends to track wealth creation more than overall GDP. The stronger the stock market and real estate, the better luxury has traditionally performed.

Good news, then, that financial markets are booming. The S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high, before Trump announced a new battery of tariffs. Bitcoin, often a leading indicator of risk appetite, touched $120,000. That tells me that investor confidence is healthy.

When you pair that with a tax environment that favors high earners (thanks in part to the One Big Beautiful Bill), the case for luxury demand staying strong looks compelling, at least to me.

Mixed Financial Results

Not all brands are hurting. Hermès reported an 8% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025. Prada’s total sales rose 9%, with its trendier Miu Miu line surging a whopping 49%. Even Richemont, which owns Cartier, saw group sales rise 6%, despite Chinese weakness.

As for the laggards, Gucci’s sales fell 26% in the first half, dragging down Kering’s overall numbers.

Some, like LVMH, are using this period to buy back shares. Bernard Arnault, the group’s founder and CEO, has personally bought over $1 billion worth of LVMH stock this year.

As I often say, follow the money, especially when it’s coming from insiders.

Luxury Stocks Trading at a Discount

Perhaps the most attractive part of the luxury story today is valuation.

UBS strategist Andrew Garthwaite notes that luxury stock valuations have dropped to a 15-year low relative to the market. Historically, when this has happened, the group outperformed the broader market 76% of the time over the next three months, and 100% of the time over the next six months.

That’s the kind of asymmetry we look for as long-term investors. You’re buying world-class brands at discounted prices, right when sentiment is near a trough.

In other words, luxury is starting to look like a deal.

Warren Buffett once said it’s “better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” Today, some of the world’s most admired brands are trading at levels we haven’t seen in over a decade. That may not last long.

Index Summary

• The major market indices finished down this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.92%. The S&P 500 Stock Index fell 2.36%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.17%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index lost 4.17% this week.
• The Hang Seng Composite lost 3.22% this week; while Taiwan was up 0.30% and the KOSPI fell 2.40%.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 17 basis points to 4.219%.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best-performing airline stock for the week was Embraer, up 18.8%. IAG reported another beat with second quarter 2025 adjusted EBIT of €1,680 million, 17% ahead of company-sourced consensus forecasts and driven by strong revenue performance. Passenger revenue was up in all geographic regions, with PRASK higher year-over-year in all areas except Europe, according to Raymond James.
• CIBC notes that the Port of Vancouver reported its third consecutive month of year-over-year improvement in container volume in June, which came in at 326,467 TEUs, up 8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, volume is up 6% year-over-year. For the May and June period, the Port of Vancouver has averaged 341,000 TEUs. This is the highest volume recorded at the port since May and June of 2021.
• With JetBlue’s earnings, Morgan Stanley believes the most important takeaways are likely longer-term, as JetBlue announced the Department of Transportation’s approval of its Blue-Sky partnership with United. They expect this partnership will add $50 million of EBIT through 2027 and have consequently raised the long-term Jet Forward target to $850–950 million from $800–900 million. In addition, management stated that the number of aircraft grounded due to the GTF issues should significantly improve, with 2025 now expected to be the peak. Better-than-expected maintenance performance and the sourcing of spare engines are anticipated to allow capacity growth in 2026.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing airline stock for the week was Air Canada, down 13.8%. According to Bank of America, Singapore Airlines’ first-quarter operating profit of S$405 million missed their estimate of S$471 million due to higher ex-fuel unit costs (up 4.8% year-over-year) and softer cargo unit revenues (down 5.6% year-over-year). The drag from Air India also appeared worse than expected, with Singapore Airlines’ first-quarter equity-accounted profits down S$122 million year-over-year.
• According to JPMorgan, the reduction in de minimis-related volumes was more pronounced than UPS had anticipated, particularly in May and June when average daily volume on the profitable China-to-U.S. lane fell 34.8% year-over-year. This decline was the main driver of the 370 basis point year-over-year decline in international margins; however, management noted that the headwinds from de minimis will be most significant in U.S. Domestic operations as demand continues to soften.
• RBC views Air Canada’s earnings report, in the context of a soft transborder market, as neutral, underpinned by effective capacity reallocation and encouraging demand commentary. However, higher-than-expected labor costs and a conservative approach to raising free cash flow guidance likely contributed to pressure on the shares.

Opportunities

• American Airlines and Porter Airlines have applied for U.S. Department of Transportation approval to launch a reciprocal codeshare partnership. If approved, the deal would expand Porter’s U.S. footprint via American’s domestic network and increase American’s access to Eastern Canada, according to Morgan Stanley.
• Goldman Sachs views Hanwha’s commentary as generally positive, noting (1) South Korean shipbuilders have no plans to expand capacity and are focusing on winning new orders for high-value-added LNG carriers, and (2) a potential shift away from China in the container ship market. They believe these factors could improve supply and demand dynamics in the shipbuilding industry outside of China (i.e., Japan and South Korea).
• U.S. tariffs for Brazilian exports were set at 50% (an initial 10% plus an additional 40%); however, aircraft and other items were excluded from the added tariffs. This exemption drove a strong share reaction in Embraer, with both local shares and ADRs rising more than 10%.

Threats

• Boeing workers represented by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) District 837 rejected the company’s contract offer in a vote held Sunday. The union represents more than 3,200 members at Boeing facilities in Illinois and Missouri. The current contract expires this Sunday, followed by a seven-day “cooling-off” period before a potential strike.
• According to Goldman Sachs, vessel volumes from China to the U.S. fell 8% sequentially, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline. Ongoing trade uncertainty tied to upcoming tariff deadlines may impact peak season planning for shippers.
• Since the start of the third quarter of 2025, among the big four airlines, United has reduced domestic capacity the most (down 230 basis points), followed by American (down 170 basis points), Southwest (down 50 basis points), and Delta (unchanged), according to Bank of America.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strength

• The U.S. economy remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, supporting steady market gains and pushing major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new record highs. Second-quarter earnings for 2025 have been strong so far, with many leading companies reporting solid financial results.

• Hermès reported strong financial results for the second quarter and first half of the year. Second-quarter sales reached 3.9 billion euros, a 9% increase compared to the prior year, driven by strong demand and price increases—especially in America. For the first half, group sales totaled 8.03 billion euros, up about 8%, with Japan and America growing at the fastest pace. Hermès’ revenue in China grew by 5.2%. Despite the solid performance, shares declined due to valuation concerns.
• Ananti, a South Korean operator of leisure clubs, was the top performer in the S&P Global Luxury Index, posting a gain of 15.2%. The shares advanced despite the absence of any significant news.

Weaknesses

• Preliminary data for the second quarter revealed that Germany, the largest economy in Europe, slipped back into recession, with GDP contracting by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, compared to 0.4% growth in the previous quarter. Germany’s slowdown may weigh on the eurozone, though the impact could be offset by recent shifts in fiscal policy.
• Retail sales for the Prada brand declined 1.9% in the first half of the year and 3.6% in the second quarter alone, signaling softness in demand. Sales slowed in Europe and Japan due to weaker tourist traffic and tough year‑over‑year comparisons. In China, spending by affluent tourists—who had boosted results in earlier periods—has also declined.
• Aston Martin, a British luxury automotive manufacturer known for its high-performance sports cars and grand tourers, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, declining 22.0%. Aston Martin shares sold off this week due to a profit warning driven by U.S. import tariffs and weak demand in the Asia-Pacific region, especially China.

Opportunities

• The IMF has significantly raised China’s growth forecast to 4.8%. Despite a 10.9% decline in Chinese exports to the United States during the first half of the year, overall trade remains robust due to increased shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe.
• Kering reported a second-quarter revenue decline of 18% and a year-over-year drop of 15%. Sales in Japan fell 29%, mainly due to reduced tourism. Despite the weak results, investors remain optimistic about a potential sales rebound and a stronger balance sheet under new CEO Luca de Meo and Gucci’s newly appointed artistic director, Demna Gvasalia.
• On July 29, 2025, Tesla’s Shanghai Energy Storage Megafactory rolled out its 1,000th Megapack, set to be exported to Europe—a milestone achieved in under six months since production began in early February 2025. This rapid ramp-up highlights the factory’s swift growth as Tesla’s first energy-storage Megafactory outside the U.S., boosting the company’s revenue beyond car sales and strengthening its role in the global transition to sustainable energy.

Threats

• Shares of Adidas fell more than 10% in Germany on Wednesday after the company released its financial update. While year-over-year revenue grew by 9%, quarter-over-quarter revenue remained flat, disappointing investors as the company did not raise its full-year outlook. CEO Bjørn Gulden emphasized caution due to potential price increases in the U.S. driven by tariffs, expecting up to €200 million in additional production costs for the U.S. market during the remainder of the year.
• China’s official manufacturing PMI for July came in at 49.3, down from 49.7 in June and below the median forecast of 49.7, signaling a sharper-than-expected contraction. Despite hopes that the U.S.-China tariff truce might stabilize activity, export orders continued to weaken and domestic demand remained sluggish, dragging factory activity into its fourth consecutive month of decline.
• Switzerland is facing a 39% tariff on many of its goods exported to the United States, including Swiss watches. This tariff was announced by U.S. President Donald Trump and is set to take effect on August 7, 2025. It is considered one of the steepest tariffs globally and significantly higher than previously proposed rates of 10% and 31%.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• Lumber was the best-performing commodity this week, rising over 16.08%. Prices have trended higher due to expectations of an interest rate cut cycle and persistent U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood imports, which have limited supply and increased costs. The North Sacramento Lumber Yard Fire, which destroyed about 2 million board feet, has intensified supply concerns and may push prices even higher.
• Neotech Metals Corp. has begun its first exploration drilling program at the 100%-owned TREO Project in British Columbia’s Wicheeda Rare Earth District. The program will test high-priority targets identified from prior sampling and mapping, with initial drill holes aimed at assessing mineralized corridors and their connection to the nearby Wicheeda Rare Earth deposit

• ExxonMobil’s second-quarter results exceeded expectations, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.64 beating estimates of $1.57 and revenue of $81.51 billion surpassing the projected $80.70 billion. Production reached 4,630 Mboe/d, well above the estimate of 4,497.3 Mboe/d, showing how strong volume growth offset pressure from weaker commodity prices and margin contractions. The Upstream segment delivered $5.40 billion in earnings, outperforming the expected $4.99 billion.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing commodity this week was copper, dropping by 23.27%. The exemption of refined copper forms from Trump’s 50% tariff triggered a sharp unwind in the U.S. copper trade, sending COMEX prices, which had traded at a significant premium, down more than 20%. U.S. producers like Freeport-McMoRan sold off more aggressively than international peers, as the policy shift hit U.S.-focused supply chains and trader positions hardest.
• Mizuho downgraded GE Vernova to neutral from outperform but raised the price target to $670 from $412, citing improved EBITDA margins and higher gas power manufacturing capacity due to strong bookings and load growth. Guggenheim also downgraded to neutral from buy, citing high valuations after shares gained about 96% year-to-date, removing the $600 target and suggesting the stock may be less attractive in the near term despite long-term appeal.
• Boss Energy’s recent shock update caused a 44% share plunge, exposing vulnerabilities in uranium production and raising doubts about the sector’s near-term growth. Uncertainty over the Honeymoon mine’s production targets and longevity highlights risks in uranium mining, potentially undermining investor confidence in the industry’s stability and profitability.

Opportunities

• All major utilities—ETR, NXT, AEP, and WEC—reported earnings that beat consensus, supported by higher electricity prices and sustained demand, underscoring their resilient moat. This consistent outperformance highlights the sector’s ability to generate strong cash flows and reinforce competitive advantages amid a stable growth outlook.
• The U.S. government allocated $6.2 million to Guardian Metal Resources to conduct a pre-feasibility study for the Pilot Mountain tungsten project, potentially creating a domestic tungsten producer. The project’s progress and rising tungsten demand, driven by China curtailing exports, present a potential opportunity for Guardian and its shareholders.
• The sharp decline in Saudi Arabia’s oil drilling activity, reaching a two-decade low, highlights the vulnerability of traditional oil-focused operations that may now be depleted. However, this shift also presents an opportunity for the industry to pivot toward natural gas development, allowing companies to adapt to evolving energy demands and the global transition to cleaner fuels, Bloomberg reports.

Threats

• Oil gave up about half of this week’s gains after President Trump threatened Russia with new deadlines and called out India for continuing to buy Russian oil, which funds the invasion of Ukraine. U.S. supply data disrupted the outlook, with inventories rising the most in six weeks. Meanwhile, Exxon and Chevron aim to boost revenue by increasing volumes despite a weakening employment and manufacturing outlook and new tariffs.
• Rising power prices, driven by higher demand and retiring power plants, threaten America’s aging energy infrastructure. This risks instability and blackouts as the outdated grid struggles to support growing energy needs, putting AI deployments and the broader economy at risk, FactSet reports.
• The latest ISM manufacturing index shows continued contraction in U.S. factory activity, with faster job losses and shrinking new orders signaling cost pressures from tariffs and weak demand. Five months below the 50-point mark highlights risks to the economy, potentially slowing consumer spending and business investment.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the best performer for the week was Four, which rose 14.52%.
• Brevan Howard Asset Management is hiring David Kalk, an alum of Peter Thiel’s family office, as a portfolio manager for its multi-strategy digital asset fund. Kalk will launch a new portfolio within the fund to continue investing in digital assets, as he did at his previous firm, Reflexive Capital, according to Bloomberg.
• While Bitcoin ETFs have been a breakout success since launching in January of last year, Ether funds have been slower to gain momentum. According to Bloomberg, the $11.3 billion BlackRock fund trading under the ticker ETHA is now the largest among more than 20 Ether-focused products tracked.

Weaknesses

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the worst performer for the week was FartCoin, down 22%.
• Coinbase Global shares fell after the company reported lower-than-estimated second-quarter revenue amid a drop in digital asset market volatility. Revenue increased 3.3% year over year to $1.5 billion, which was still lower than analysts’ estimates of $1.59 billion, according to Bloomberg.
• Bitcoin declined for a fifth straight session, dropping as much as 2.2% to $113,979, its lowest level in three weeks. The broader crypto market is retreating after topping $4 trillion in total market capitalization in July, with Ether falling as much as 4.5% to $3,567, writes Bloomberg.

Opportunities

• Coinbase is in advanced talks to acquire India’s CoinDCX at a valuation below $1 billion, according to two unidentified sources familiar with the development. Coinbase already holds stakes in both CoinDCX and its rival Coinswitch, Bloomberg reports.
• Bitmain Technologies plans to open its first U.S. facility within the next few months, establishing a new headquarters and assembly line in either Texas or Florida. The company expects local production to accelerate deliveries and repairs for U.S. customers, according to Bloomberg.
• FalconX is expanding into Latin America to meet growing institutional demand for cryptocurrencies in the region. The head of Americas Sales at FalconX stated that “Latin America is one of the fastest-growing regions for crypto adoption,” driven by regulatory frameworks, forward-thinking institutions, and economic factors, Bloomberg reports.

Threats

• Tyler Winklevoss accused JPMorgan Chase & Co. of halting the onboarding of his crypto exchange, Gemini, as a customer in response to his recent criticism of the bank. Winklevoss claimed that JPMorgan’s decision to charge fintech companies for accessing customers’ bank account information will “bankrupt fintechs” that facilitate linking bank accounts to crypto platforms, according to Bloomberg.
• An appeals court overturned the conviction of a former OpenSea employee in the first insider trading case involving NFTs. A three-judge panel ruled that the jury was wrongly instructed to consider NFT information as “OpenSea’s property” under the wire fraud statute, Bloomberg reports.
• Riot Platforms shares dropped 8.9% in premarket trading after the Bitcoin mining and data center company reported second-quarter revenue that fell short of the average analyst estimate. The company cited longer-than-expected timelines for securing data center customers as a key factor, according to Bloomberg.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• Commvault reported strong first-quarter fiscal year 2026 results, with revenue of $282 million, up 26% year-over-year and 2.5% quarter-over-quarter, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01, beating estimates on both metrics. The company guided second-quarter revenue to $272–274 million and subscription revenue to $174–176 million, both slightly above consensus. Growth was driven by a 46% year-over-year surge in subscription revenue, highlighting continued momentum in its cyber resilience and software-as-a-service (SaaS) offerings.

• Trump signed a sweeping executive order and tax bill to fast-track AI data center and semiconductor factory construction by streamlining permits, opening federal lands, and boosting the tax credit to 35% for U.S.-based chip plants. The plan also includes export incentives, workforce training, and the use of Superfund sites, aiming to cement U.S. dominance in AI infrastructure, with backing from Nvidia and AMD executives.
• The best performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was L3Harris Technologies Inc., rising 3.26%, after announcing a new defense VTOL partnership with Joby Aviation. The company saw renewed investor optimism and outperformed the market this week, supported by rising volume and bullish analyst sentiment.

Weaknesses

• Despite mostly solid earnings in semiconductors and cybersecurity, several companies are lowering guidance amid growing uncertainty over trade policies and tariffs. Tokyo Electron cut its full-year outlook due to weak memory demand and delayed investments, while cybersecurity firms also pulled back after soft forward metrics. Investors are cautious as U.S.–China tensions rise and fears of retaliatory tariffs cloud the outlook for global tech suppliers.
• Russia launched the nuclear ballistic missile submarine Knyaz Pozharsky, the fifth in its upgraded Borei-A class, boosting its strategic deterrent with 16 Bulava SLBMs and advanced stealth features. Around the same time, the massive battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov—the world’s largest non-aircraft carrier combat ship—was re-floated after a 26-year overhaul, now armed with hypersonic Zircon missiles and advanced air defense systems.
• The worst performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was ATI Inc., which declined 19.68%, after narrowing its full year adjusted EBITDA forecast despite beating second quarter EPS estimates. ATI shares plunged as much as its steepest drop since March 2020.

Opportunities

• Citi analyst Jason Gursky said on CNBC that rising defense budgets in the U.S. and Europe should boost major defense firms, naming RTX as a top beneficiary—especially in missile systems—thanks to strong policy support and margin upside from shifting away from fixed-price contracts.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged over 10% as investors focused on high-growth, AI-linked stocks, despite a quiet session for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and cautious sentiment ahead of key economic events.
• Micron Technology launched three new data center SSDs, including the world’s first PCIe Gen6 NVMe SSD, aimed at enhancing performance and sustainability in AI-driven data centers.

Threats

• Hackers are leveling up: Russia-linked APT28 is using new AI-powered malware called LameHug to spy on Ukraine’s defense sector. EU users are being targeted by 35,000 fake crypto ads in the JSCEAL campaign, and researchers have just discovered XWorm 6.0—a stealthier, more persistent malware that evades detection by hijacking memory.
• IBM found that unmonitored “shadow AI” is making cyberattacks more expensive, with breaches involving insecure AI tools costing companies an average of $670,000 more. These breaches often stem from weak access controls, supply-chain intrusions, and a lack of AI governance policies.
• The AI boom is straining U.S. power grids—PJM issued nine emergency alerts this summer and reported a supply shortfall for the first time ever, raising urgent concerns about infrastructure readiness for data center expansion.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed at $3,411.0, up $19.00 per ounce, or 0.56%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 2.88%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in off 5.00%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 1.18%.

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, up 0.56%. Gold regained ground this week, breaking a two-week run of losses when the weaker than expected U.S. jobs growth was reported and prior numbers being revised down too. This sparked a rally in gold on Friday as expectations of a September rate cut became more probable.  Adding fuel to the fire, U.S. factory activity contracted in July at the fastest rate in nine months and sliding to the lowest reading in more than five years, according to Bloomberg.
• According to Scotia, B2Gold announced that it has received approval from the state of Mali to begin underground mining at its Fekola Complex as of July 30, 2025. Throughout 2024 and 2025, the company had completed development work and installation of all required underground infrastructure in anticipation of receiving the required approvals, so stope ore production from the underground has already begun.
• The amendment to Silver Crown Royalties’ silver royalty agreement with PPX Mining Corp. strengthens the company’s position, as it increases the silver royalty to 11.1% and provides flexibility in the payment structure, positioning Silver Crown to capitalize on the initial phase of the Beneficiation Plant’s operation. This strategic move, coupled with Silver Crown’s stock breaking above its 50-day moving average, underscores the company’s ability to enhance shareholder value even in a volatile market.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the week was platinum, down 6.44%. Platinum, which had been trading at a premium on U.S. futures markets, sold off nearly 6% after Trump’s surprise decision to exempt refined copper from immediate tariffs, undermining trader expectations of similar protectionist moves for other critical metals. The sudden unwind erased the U.S.-London premium and triggered a wave of position exits, as American platinum companies and warehouse inventories came under pressure from a sharp sentiment reversal.
• Greatland Gold has reported a disappointing moderation for FY26 guidance, according to Canaccord, now forecasting production of 260,000–310,000 ounces and all-in sustaining cost guidance of A$2,400–2,800 per ounce. The moderation reflects additional risk weighting for lower grades in the run-of-mine stockpiles (inherited from Newmont) and unmined open-pit material.
• Putting it all together, and excluding over-the-counter transactions, gold demand increased by a solid 10.4% year-over-year in the past quarter, although this was slightly below the 15% year-over-year expansion in Q1 2025. This is one reason prices have remained resilient but have not pushed higher. Of course, the recent hawkish Federal Open Market Committee meeting also dampens a near-term bullish narrative, according to Bank of America.

Opportunities

• According to Canaccord, Torex Gold announced it will acquire Prime Mining in an all-share deal valued at C$449 million, adding the advanced-stage Los Reyes gold-silver project in Mexico and expanding its development pipeline. Torex appears to be consolidating junior exploration companies at attractive prices, while other miners remain relatively complacent.
• Canaccord expects M&A activity to continue, driven by consolidation among producers and royalty companies, as well as increased developer mergers to build out development pipelines. The group believes share buybacks make a lot of sense today because of: 1) sector undervaluation, 2) signaling confidence in future business value rather than waiting for generalist investors, 3) improved per-share metrics, 4) tax efficiency, and 5) the opportunity to capitalize on sector volatility.
• For Visla Silver, the high-grade Panuco project continues to show strong potential for resource growth, according to CIBC. Upcoming catalysts include ongoing progress at the fully permitted test mine, permitting updates in Mexico, the release of a feasibility study targeted for the second half of 2025, and the vision of first silver production by mid-2027. CIBC continues to view Panuco as one of the most promising primary silver development projects.

Threats

• According to JP Morgan, Ramelius Resources’ costs were 4% better than forecast in the quarter, but FY25 narrowly missed the low end of guidance. Pre-delivery of 7,000 ounces of hedging caused pricing to come in 4% below forecast. No FY26 guidance was given.
• U.S. platinum premiums fell after President Trump exempted refined copper from immediate tariffs, altering traders’ hedging strategies. The $30 per ounce premium between U.S. futures and London spot prices dropped to nearly zero, Bloomberg reports.
• Alamos maintained production guidance of 580–630k ounces but raised AISC guidance to $1,400–$1,450/ounce from $1,250–$1,300, citing higher share-based compensation, royalties, and slower starts at Magino and Young-Davidson. According to Scotia, Alamos has lagged peers recently and may struggle to outperform without a catalyst.

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This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product. Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (06/30/2025): 

International Consolidated Air

JetBlue Airways Corp.

Singapore Airlines Ltd.

Air Canada

American Airlines

Embraer SA

Boeing Co/The

Delta Air Lines

Southwest Airlines

United Airlines

Hermes International SCA

Prada SpA

Cie Financiere Richemont SA

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton

Kering SA

B2Gold Corp.

Silver Crown Royalties Inc.

Torex Gold Resources

Alamos Gold Inc.

Ramelius Resources Ltd.

Hermes

Remy Cointreau

Prada

Kering

Tesla

Adidas

Neotech Metals Corp.

Exxon Mobil Corp.

GE Vernova Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.

The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.