Precious Metals Crushed Their Commodities Peers in the First Half of 2025

Every year around this time, we update our Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months. I’m biased, but few tools do a better job of providing a clear, interactive picture of the commodities landscape than ours.

Precious metals dominated in H1. As you can see in the chart below, the group—which includes gold, silver, platinum and palladium—absolutely crushed commodities as a whole, from industrial metals to energy and agricultural.

Platinum soared nearly 50%, followed by gold (+26%), silver (+25%) and palladium (+21%). Meanwhile, copper had its own standout run, driven by rising industrial demand and geopolitical catalysts.

Platinum Has Been the Year’s Breakout Star

After years of range-bound trading, platinum finally broke out in spectacular fashion. The metal surged from just over $900 an ounce in January to around $1,360 by the end of June, representing a 49.8% gain. In Q2 alone, it jumped 35.8%, closing the quarter at a price not seen since 2014.

A major factor for the spike was constrained supply. Platinum supply has historically been price inelastic in the short term, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). Even as prices surged, production remained sluggish, leading to persistent market imbalances. At the same time, demand remained firm, spanning industrial applications, jewelry and its emerging role in green hydrogen technologies.

Unlike its cousin palladium, which is heavily reliant on gasoline vehicle manufacturing, platinum benefits from a broader range of demand. It’s used in diesel catalytic converters, fuel cells and more. And as the world moves toward decarbonization, platinum’s future in hydrogen energy systems makes it increasingly strategic.

Gold: Still the Ultimate Safe Haven

Gold has always been a barometer of uncertainty, and in 2025, investors had plenty to be uncertain about.

Geopolitical tensions flared again in the Middle East, with the Israel–Iran conflict intensifying. In April alone, gold hit five separate all-time highs. By the end of June, it had risen 25.9%, topping $3,300 per ounce. With central banks continuing to buy record amounts of bullion, especially in emerging markets, I believe the metal remains a clear beneficiary of macro concerns.

Physically backed gold ETFs attracted a stunning $38 billion in inflows during the first half of the year, marking the strongest performance since the pandemic-fueled rally of H1 2020. North American investors led the charge, adding $21 billion. Trading volumes surged across the board, averaging $329 billion a day globally—a new record, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

There’s another trend at work: de-dollarization. Since the U.S. and its allies froze Russian central bank assets in 2022, many nations have grown increasingly wary of holding dollar-denominated reserves.

Gold, by contrast, is seen as politically neutral, and central banks have responded by diversifying into the yellow metal at an unprecedented pace. In fact, institutions bought more in the last four years than in the previous two decades combined.

Silver’s Dual Role as a Precious and Industrial Metal

Silver’s story is a little different, but no less compelling.

It often rides gold’s coattails, and in 2025, it’s kept pace with the yellow metal, rising nearly 25% through June. Silver briefly surged above $37 in mid-June, levels not seen since 2011, before settling around $36.

The white metal stands to benefit from its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal. Demand is rising in green energy applications, particularly solar panels and battery storage. As central bank gold demand continues to outpace silver, I believe silver is undervalued on a relative basis. A return to the historical gold-silver ratio (around 80) could send silver back toward its all-time high of $50 an ounce.

Copper: The Metal of the Future

Though not a precious metal, copper deserves an honorable mention. It finished the first half of the year up 16.2%, making it the best-performing base metal.

What’s driving copper’s rally? A perfect storm of supply fears, strong demand from artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers, and political noise from Washington.

President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper this month sent U.S. copper futures to record highs, adding fresh volatility to an already tight market. And with global supply struggling to keep pace with demand, copper’s long-term fundamentals look incredibly strong.

Data centers alone are projected to require 127,000 megawatts (MW) of power by 2029, up from 82,000 this year. Each megawatt of capacity needs about 27 metric tons of copper. That’s not even counting the metal’s vital role in electric vehicles (EVs), grid modernization and semiconductors.

Energy and Agriculture Were the Laggards

Not all commodities shared in the rally. Several energy and agricultural materials ended the first half in the red.

Even lithium, once the darling of the EV boom, fell nearly 19%—a reflection of softening battery demand and oversupply from key producers in China and South America.

For contrarian investors, this could be an area to watch for opportunities in the second half of the year.

Periodic Table of Commodities Returns

The first half of 2025 reminds us why commodities deserve a strategic place in a well-diversified portfolio.

Precious metals have proven their worth once again as reliable hedges against inflation and geopolitical concerns. Central banks and fiscal imbalances continue to support long-term demand, especially for gold and platinum.

Industrial metals like copper are benefiting from secular shifts in technology and electrification. While energy and agriculture struggled, those sectors may offer attractive entry points for investors with a longer time horizon.

As always, our interactive Periodic Table of Commodities Returns makes it easy to compare commodity performance across years and sectors.

Index Summary

• The major market indices finished down this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.02%. The S&P 500 Stock Index fell 0.31%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.08%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index lost 0.63% this week.
• The Hang Seng Composite gained 1.09% this week; while Taiwan was up 0.90% and the KOSPI rose 3.98%.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 6 basis points to 4.416%.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best-performing airline stock for the week was Norwegian Air Shuttle, up 18.1%. Delta Air Lines indicated that demand could accelerate in the second half of the year. Capacity discipline has been excellent so far. For the September quarter, they expect earnings per share (EPS) of $1.25–1.75 with low single-digit revenue growth. They project EPS of $5.25–6.25 for 2025.
• Import volume estimates from the Port of Los Angeles indicated an 18% increase this week and 16% year-over-year volume growth, following a 5% year-over-year growth last week, according to UBS.
• Allegiant announced that it has agreed to sell its wholly owned hotel in Florida, Sunseeker Resort Charlotte Harbor, to Blackstone Real Estate for $200 million. The sale proceeds, which equate to $11 per share, will be used to bolster the balance sheet by paying down debt, according to the release.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing airline stock for the week was Embraer, down 11.6%. President Trump says there may be a 25% tariff on Japan. UBS estimates Japan accounts for 8% of Boeing’s parts cost of goods sold (COGS), making it the single largest international supplier. Their model assumes a total post-drawback tariff headwind of $250 million in 2025 and $500 million in 2026.
• The first suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthis on a commercial vessel this year forced the crew of a Greek-owned cargo ship to abandon their vessel in the Red Sea on Sunday. If the attack on the Magic Seas, a dry bulk carrier owned by Greece’s Stem Shipping, is confirmed as the work of the Houthis, it would be the first attack on a commercial vessel since December by the group, which is backed by Iran, according to Morgan Stanley.
• According to Morgan Stanley, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste’s total passenger traffic decreased 1.8% year-over-year in June. Second-quarter 2025 traffic was down 0.1% year-over-year, compared to the consensus estimate of +2.4%.

Opportunities

• Low-cost carriers are scheduled to shrink third-quarter 2025 capacity by 10.4% year-over-year, with domestic capacity down 11.5%. Spirit is making the most cuts at Las Vegas (-42%), Los Angeles (-42%), and Chicago (-39%). Frontier plans cuts at San Juan (-28%), Phoenix (-23%), and Denver (-19%).
• Crude tanker ton-mile demand grew 4% year-over-year in recent weeks, benefiting from OPEC+ production lifts and strong Chinese imports. Forward curves suggest a rebound back to $40,000 per day into the fourth-quarter 2025 as seasonal tailwinds ramp up in the northern hemisphere winter, according to Bank of America.
• The recently passed bill provides the FAA with $12.5 billion for modernization of air traffic control systems. Specific allocations include $4.75 billion for telecommunications infrastructure, $3 billion for radar replacements, $1.9 billion for a new air route traffic control center, and $1 billion for terminal radar approach control facilities, according to Morgan Stanley.

Threats

• UBS is forecasting JetBlue to remain unprofitable for the next several quarters before turning a modest profit at the EBIT level next year. To achieve profits, JetBlue would need a meaningful acceleration in its revenue metrics. As such, UBS believes the risk-reward is tilted to the downside.
• The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index fell 5.3% this week, compared to a 0.4% decrease the previous week. This index is a leading indicator of actual shipping rates, which affect shipping revenues and profits, according to Morgan Stanley.
• On a year-over-year basis, Boeing delivered 16 more aircraft compared to June 2024, whereas Airbus fell short by 4 aircraft. RBC believes the deliveries report reinforces narratives from the Paris Airshow—supply chain issues, largely engine and interior delays, continue to weigh on Airbus’s production. They think investors are likely to feel less confident about Airbus’s 2025 guidance of 820 deliveries, with only 306 delivered in the first half of 2025.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Royal Caribbean (RCL) reached a record high this week, driven by strong earnings, raised guidance, and bullish analyst upgrades citing robust demand and improved margins. The company’s expansion into river cruising and its upgraded investment-grade rating are further boosting investor confidence.
• Goldman Sachs is expanding its luxury portfolio by acquiring the Mercure Ambassador Hongdae hotel and nearby retail space in Seoul for about $190 million. The move strengthens its presence in South Korea and taps into growing demand for upscale travel and shopping.
• Paradise Corporation, a South Korean gaming and casino company, was the top performer in the S&P Global Luxury Index, gaining 19.6%. UBS raised its 2025–2026 gross margin forecast, citing expected growth in Chinese tourist traffic, supported by potential visa-free entry for group—and possibly individual—tourists in the third quarter of 2025.

Weaknesses

• Volkswagen sold fewer of its high-margin vehicles in the second quarter, with combined sales of Porsche, Audi, Lamborghini, and Bentley falling 7.7% to 480,200 units. While sales of lower-margin brands like Skoda improved, U.S. deliveries dropped 16%; however, global deliveries rose 1.2% year-over-year to 2,271,700, according to Bloomberg.
• A key weakness for luxury and premium brands is the rising trade war. Under President Trump’s new trade deal with Vietnam, a 20% tariff has been imposed on goods exported to the U.S.—a major hit for companies like Lululemon, Nike, Deckers, and On Holdings that rely on Vietnamese manufacturing.
• Watches of Switzerland, a high-end luxury watch distributor, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, falling 7.3%. U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports are squeezing profit margins and forcing price increases, leading more consumers to turn to the lower-margin pre-owned watch market.

Opportunities         

• Brunello Cucinelli kicked off the reporting season on Thursday. The company delivered second-quarter 2025 revenue in line with expectations and reiterated full-year guidance with revenue growth of around 10%. Europe delivered slightly stronger revenue growth, while American and Asian revenue were reported below expectations. Management sees continued strong sales due to upcoming releases of Autumn/Winter collections and is projecting 10% growth in 2026.

• Sales and consumer confidence in the Eurozone have shown signs of improvement, signaling a modest rebound in consumer sentiment. Recent data indicate a pickup in retail sales alongside a rise in the European Commission’s Consumer Confidence Index, suggesting that households are gradually regaining confidence amid easing inflation and improving economic conditions.

• Michael Burke, aged 68, has been appointed Chairman and CEO of LVMH Americas, overseeing operations across North and South America. A longtime LVMH executive, Burke began with the company in the 1980s—leading Christian Dior USA from 1986 to 1992 and serving as CEO of Louis Vuitton North America from 1992 to 1997—and has since held top roles at Fendi, Bulgari, Louis Vuitton, and the Fashion Group. Shares of LVMH gained 7% this week.

Threats

• Bank of America remains cautious about the luxury sector’s outlook for the rest of the year. The bank’s luxury team forecasts a 2% decline in sector revenue for 2025, citing a continued weakness in demand for luxury goods and services that has weighed on performance for the past 18 months. This analysis comes from Ashley Wallace’s report, “Is a Fashion Reshuffle Underway?” published on July 10.
• Bloomberg projects that Chinese outbound tourist spending will likely decline for a second straight year in 2025 despite continued growth in travel volume. This shift reflects growing caution among consumers, who are increasingly frugal and spending less lavishly during international trips.
• Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced the launch of a new political group called the American Party, aiming to challenge both Republicans and Democrats. The move follows a reported disagreement with Donald Trump over government spending, and Tesla shares fell in response to the news.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best-performing commodity for the week was lumber, rising 11.25%. CIBC’s Chopping Block report noted that while demand remains somewhat lackluster, supply concerns continue to weigh on the market. China has been exporting lumber through Vietnam but proposed 40% tariffs could halt that flow. As global trade lanes shift, Brazil’s wood-based product exports fell 12% year-over-year in May to $294.9 million, while traders seek to capitalize on disrupted China–U.S. lumber trade dynamics.
• MP Materials announced a transformational Department of Defense partnership worth over $1.5 billion in support, including a $150 million loan and a $1 billion financing commitment. The deal positions the DoD as MP’s largest shareholder, with up to 15% ownership. It also includes a 10-year rare earth price floor and magnet offtake agreement, enabling construction of a second U.S. magnet facility by 2028 and expanding heavy rare earth separation at Mountain Pass.
• Nickel has significantly outperformed lithium, averaging $17,000 per tonne this year compared to lithium’s steep drop from $80,000 to $8,450 per tonne. Electric vehicle deployment value through May totaled $2.20 billion for nickel versus $2.15 billion for lithium, according to Adamas Intelligence.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing commodity for the week was uranium, down 7.30%. Senator Martin Heinrich criticized the Trump administration’s FY2026 budget for potentially undermining clean energy programs while emphasizing stricter mining enforcement. The uranium industry now faces the risk of higher costs and permitting delays, compounded by recent legislation that restricts imports while promoting domestic production.
• CoBank warns of a looming labor shortage that could impact U.S. businesses as early as later this year, with nearly 2.5 million working-age individuals expected to exit the workforce within eight months. Labor-intensive crops like corn, sugar, and cotton are particularly vulnerable, as agricultural producers face growing pressure to accelerate the adoption of AI and robotics.
• China’s copper wire and cable utilization rates fell 9.3% month-over-month to 72.4% in June, due to high copper prices and weaker construction demand. Sheet and strip operating rates also declined 2.7%, as uncertainty around tariff policy continues to weigh on export confidence.

Opportunities

• Silver surged to $37.59 per ounce, its highest level since 2011, driven by critical inventory shortages and rising U.S. premiums. Tariff-driven arbitrage has left London’s freely available silver at what TD Securities describes as “its lowest levels in recorded history,” creating the potential for a physical squeeze. Peter Schiff suggests silver could rise far more than Bitcoin, positioning it as potentially undervalued despite a 27% gain this year.
• The 50% tariff on copper imports is creating significant arbitrage opportunities for U.S.-based producers such as Freeport-McMoRan, BHP, and Rio Tinto. These companies can benefit from premium domestic pricing over international markets, as the tariff-induced price differential makes U.S. production increasingly competitive.

• Neotech Metals (CSE: NTMC) has engaged Munich MiningPartners for European marketing as it looks to capitalize on rising demand for critical minerals. Its rare earth portfolio includes the Hecla-Kilmer project in Ontario and the TREO and Foothills projects in B.C. With a market cap of just C$13.8M—compared to Ramaco Resources’ $850M—Canadian junior miners may still offer better value despite Ramaco’s recent rare earth and scandium discoveries in former coal seams.

Threats

• Ecuador’s mining industry is challenging a $229 million annual government fee in the Constitutional Court, arguing it functions as a crippling tax on junior explorers and could drive the country off the regional investment map—despite government claims that the fee is essential to combat illegal mining linked to organized crime.
• Canada’s Industry Minister Mélanie Joly strongly condemned the U.S. 50% copper tariffs, stating: “We denounce these illegal tariffs, and we think they are a direct attack against our workers in the copper industry. We will fight against this, period.” The tariffs add to existing trade tensions, as Canada already faces 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
• The EIA revised its U.S. natural gas inventory forecast upward to 3,910 Bcf by October—5% higher than last month’s projection—prompting a 16% cut in the projected third-quarter 2025 Henry Hub price to $3.40/MMBtu. The oversupply outlook threatens pricing, signaling sustained downward pressure through the rest of the year.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the top performer this week was MemeCore, which surged 1,137.69%.
• Bitcoin options traders are betting on even higher prices as the cryptocurrency extends its record-breaking rally, with open interest concentrated around call options at $115,000 and $120,000 strike prices. The rally triggered a major unwinding of short positions, with over $1 billion in bearish bets liquidated, according to Bloomberg.
• Bitcoin surged past $112,000 for the first time, setting a new record alongside a broad rally in risk assets. The move highlights the speculative momentum gripping markets as President Trump rolls out a fresh wave of tariff announcements, Bloomberg reports.

Weaknesses

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the worst performer this week was Unus Sed, down 0.68%.
• Shenzhen has issued a risk alert warning investors about illegal fund-raising activities disguised as stablecoin investments. Some entities exploited terms like “financial innovation” and “digital assets” to mislead the public and induce speculative trading, according to Bloomberg.
• Erika Kullberg and her talent management agency have agreed to pay $372,500 to resolve claims that they promoted FTX prior to the cryptocurrency exchange’s 2022 collapse, Bloomberg reports. Kullberg was among several celebrities, athletes, and influencers sued for allegedly enabling the now-defunct platform to commit fraud.

Opportunities

• Robinhood Markets Inc. CEO Vlad Tenev said the company is in discussions with regulators about its tokenized equity offerings in Europe, following criticism from companies including OpenAI. The Bank of Lithuania has contacted Robinhood regarding its private stock tokens and is currently awaiting explanations before making an evaluation, according to Bloomberg.
• Crypto-linked stocks rose Thursday after Bitcoin hit a record high of $113,499 amid broader market gains. Among the top gainers: Circle Internet Group +1.1%, Galaxy Digital +1.7%, Coinbase +2.3%, Hut 8 +4.9%, Riot Platforms +4%, Cipher Mining +2.9%, Terawulf +4.2%, and Bitdeer Technologies +3.1%.
• Ant Group is partnering with Circle Internet Group to adopt its stablecoin on the Chinese fintech firm’s blockchain platform. The collaboration is part of Ant International’s broader efforts to introduce more regulated cryptocurrencies into its treasury management and cross-border payment systems, Bloomberg reports.

Threats

•  Nicholas Truglia’s sentence was increased to 12 years after U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein found he willfully failed to honor his agreement to pay nearly $20.4 million in restitution. Truglia had pleaded guilty to participating in a scheme to steal more than $20 million in cryptocurrency from Michael Terpin, the founder and CEO of Transform Group, Bloomberg reports.
• The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority fined Monzo Bank €21 million for failures in its systems to prevent financial crime. The violations occurred between 2018 and 2022, during which Monzo’s customer base grew to 5.8 million. Issues included inadequate customer due diligence and onboarding of high-risk clients, according to Bloomberg.
• The European Securities and Markets Authority criticized Malta’s crypto oversight for falling short in several areas related to an unidentified entity it authorized. The review found deficiencies in the approval process, including the provider’s client onboarding procedures, risks associated with its use of Web3 services, and its ability to comply with anti-money laundering and sanctions requirements, Bloomberg reports.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• The U.S. Army is creating a new AI-focused military role called 49B, along with a dedicated warrant officer track, to embed machine learning specialists into combat units. This marks a significant institutional shift by integrating cutting-edge tech talent directly into frontline operations.
• Nvidia has announced a massive new campus in Israel, investing billions to build one of the country’s largest server farms and significantly expand its workforce. This move reflects its long-term commitment to AI and cloud infrastructure in the region.

• The best-performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was Kratos, up 15.45% after the U.S. Defense Department reclassified small drones as “consumable weapons.” The policy shift, announced by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, is expected to boost demand for low-cost unmanned systems like those made by Kratos.

Weaknesses

• TSMC has delayed its second chip plant in Japan to prioritize U.S. operations, citing potential Trump-era tariffs. This shift may disrupt Japanese supply chain expectations and add uncertainty to non-U.S. fabrication expansion timelines.
• Microsoft is planning to lay off nearly 4% of its workforce despite strong AI-driven cost savings. The move underscores growing internal pressure to cut spending amid global tech competition and could raise concerns about employee morale.
• The worst-performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was Byrna Technologies, down 30.59% after its earnings report disappointed investors. Shares fell as much as 24% on Thursday despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, as analysts flagged weak consumer demand, high cart abandonment, and soft guidance. Roth and B. Riley maintained buy ratings but issued diverging price targets.

Opportunities

• The U.S. Army is working to make HIMARS hypersonic by integrating Castelion’s Blackbeard missile, which will reach Mach 5 and strike moving or fortified targets with precision. This will vastly extend battlefield capabilities and reinforce U.S. missile dominance.
• Germany and Israel are jointly developing a “Cyber Dome” to defend German infrastructure from cyberattacks, modeled after the Iron Dome but focused on digital threats. This initiative signals stronger bilateral cooperation and new defense export potential for Israeli firms.
• The U.S. Space Force awarded Boeing a $2.8 billion contract to build up to four satellites to modernize America’s nuclear command-and-control in space. This positions Boeing as a core player in future deterrence infrastructure amid rising space militarization.

Threats

• Russia launched its largest airstrike yet against Ukraine, deploying 728 drones and 13 missiles, including hypersonic weapons. While most threats were intercepted, the scale marks a dangerous escalation in Russia’s aerial warfare strategy.
• Ukraine arrested two Chinese nationals attempting to smuggle Neptune missile secrets to Beijing, heightening accusations of Chinese support for Russia. This incident may worsen U.S.-China tensions and complicate future tech exports to both regions.
• France is demanding an 80% stake in the FCAS fighter jet program with Germany and Spain, disrupting the balance of the €100+ billion European project. This internal discord could delay development and weaken the EU’s military-industrial cohesion.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $3,370.20, up $27.30 per ounce, or 0.82%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 0.98%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up 3.76%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 0.66%.

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 12.22%, possibly boosted by news that Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. will close the Lac des Iles palladium mine in Ontario due to falling prices over the past three years.
• Bloomberg suggests keeping an eye on silver, as steady inflows into silver-backed ETFs indicate growing investor confidence in further gains this half. ETF holdings are now at their highest since mid-2022, following eight consecutive weeks of inflows, the longest streak in nearly five years.
• According to Scotia, Lundin Gold reported second-quarter gold production of 139.4K ounces, 20% above their estimate of 115.9K ounces. The beat was driven by higher processed grades, and the company also achieved a throughput rate of 5,064 tons per day, the highest in Fruta del Norte’s history, thanks to its recently completed Plant Expansion Project.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the week was gold, though it still rose 0.82%. According to Royal Bank of Canada, Northern Star’s fiscal year 2026 production expectations have been declining since a fiscal year 2025 downgrade in the third quarter. The newly released fiscal year 2026 guidance of 1,700–1,850 thousand ounces is slightly below Royal Bank of Canada’s midpoint estimate of 1,802 thousand ounces. However, the all-in sustaining cost of 2,300–2,500 Australian dollars per ounce missed expectations. Fourth-quarter gold sales were also soft at 444 thousand ounces, 2% below estimates.
• Bellevue Gold reported production of 38.9 thousand ounces, a slight miss compared to second-quarter guidance of 40–43 thousand ounces. Canaccord attributes the shortfall to a brief delay in accessing a key stope at Deacon, as well as unplanned maintenance early in the quarter.
• According to Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Gold’s streaming segment sales totaled 40.6 gold equivalent ounces, 14% below their estimate. Inventories declined to 16 thousand gold equivalent ounces, down from 23 thousand in the first quarter, suggesting that low production was partly offset by the sale of ounces carried over from previous periods. Performance was particularly weak across Royal Gold’s gold streams.

Opportunities

• Gold momentum has slipped into neutral, with support holding near $3,300 and resistance capped below $3,400. Since April, gains have been limited by the S&P 500 rally, after gold initially rose on early-year market fears. Now coiling in a classic consolidation, any catalyst could break it out. Either investors believe macro risks are contained—or they’re underestimating the chance of renewed volatility amid slowdown fears and possible rate cuts.

• The World Gold Council reports that global central banks bought a net 20 tons of gold in May, slightly below the 12-month average of 27 tons. Gold remains a key focus, with 95% of central bankers expecting official reserves to grow, up from 81% last year. A record 43% also plan to increase their own gold holdings in the next 12 months.
• Aura Minerals Inc. plans to raise about $210 million through a U.S. listing to expand its investor base. The gold and copper miner, already traded in Canada and Brazil, will offer 8.1 million shares. Pricing is set for July 15, per a recent SEC filing seen by Bloomberg.

Threats

• According to RBC, royalty companies reporting gold-equivalent production figures will face larger guidance headwinds as gold prices have materially outperformed other commodities year-to-date. They forecast OR Royalties could track at or slightly below the low end of production guidance, while Triple Flag and Sandstorm remain within the lower end of their guidance ranges.
• OR Royalties reported Q2 2025 gold-equivalent ounces (GEO) results slightly below BMO’s expectations, leading BMO to lower its quarterly estimates. The company also highlighted repayments on its revolving credit facility during and after the quarter. OR Royalties remains an attractive consolidation target.
• Barrick reports that Malian government helicopters arrived unannounced at its Loulo-Gounkoto complex on Thursday and took over 1 ton of gold. The gold was potentially for sale by the provisional administrator, though Barrick says the situation is “evolving,” according to Bloomberg.

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This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product. Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (06/30/2025): 

Nvidia

Boeing

Tesla

LVMH

Brunello Cucinelli

Volkswagen

Goldman Sachs

Royal Caribbean

Delta Air Lines

Allegiant Travel

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste

Airbus SE

Ramaco Resources

Freeport McMoRan

BHP Group

Impala Platinum Holdings

Lundin Gold

Royal Gold

OR Royalties

Barrick

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

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The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is a weekly index that tracks spot rates for container shipping from Shanghai to major global destinations, serving as a key indicator of international shipping costs and market trends.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a widely tracked benchmark for commodity investments, designed to provide broad-based and diversified exposure to the commodity markets through futures contracts.