Record Memorial Day Weekend Puts Travel Stocks Back in the Spotlight

The headlines haven’t been too kind to the travel industry lately. You’ve probably seen the same bearish takes I have—reports of slumping business travel to the U.S., falling international visitor spending and weak demand.

Context is everything, though, and if you dig a little deeper, you’ll see a more nuanced, surprisingly bullish picture. In fact, there’s a lot to like about the travel industry right now from an investment standpoint. You just have to know where to look.

Americans Are Still Hitting the Road (and the Skies)

Let’s start with one of the most time-tested indicators of travel health: Memorial Day. According to AAA, 45.1 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home this holiday weekend. That’s the highest number ever recorded, breaking a record that’s stood since 2005.

Despite inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, American consumers continue to prioritize leisure travel. That’s according to Allianz, whose latest survey found that 63% of U.S. households express confidence in taking a summer vacation, and projected spending is set to hit a record $226.6 billion, with the average household shelling out nearly $2,900 for their getaway.

Deloitte also found that more than half of all Americans are planning leisure vacations this summer, with trip frequency on the rise. People may not feel wealthier, but they’re still putting a premium on experiences and making time for family and travel.

Deloitte also found that more than half of all Americans are planning leisure vacations this summer, with trip frequency on the rise. People may not feel wealthier, but they’re still putting a premium on experiences and making time for family and travel.

Gas Prices Are Down, Confidence Is Up

There’s another tailwind worth highlighting fuel prices. GasBuddy projects a national average of $3.08 per gallon for Memorial Day, the lowest since 2021 and the lowest adjusted for inflation since 2003. Over the course of the summer, prices could even drop below the $3 mark. That’s good news for road trips and domestic leisure, which continues to represent a large portion of overall travel volume.

Meanwhile, air travel is climbing back as well. AAA expects nearly 3.61 million air passengers this Memorial Day, a 2% bump from last year and 12% above pre-pandemic levels. Average domestic airfare is also up 2% year-over-year, suggesting steady demand.

Yes, Inbound International Travel Is Weak, but That’s Not the Whole Story

Let’s address the elephant in the room: international inbound travel to the U.S. is underperforming. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects that the U.S. will lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending in 2025, with total spending falling to just under $169 billion.

Why? Some of it comes down to policy and perception. Reports of detentions and rigorous border checks have created concern among some foreign nationals.

But from an investor’s perspective, this isn’t necessarily as damaging as it sounds. U.S. airlines and travel platforms still generate the majority of international revenue through domestic point-of-sale channels—in other words, Americans booking trips abroad. So while inbound traffic is down, outbound travel remains robust.

European Travel Is on Fire

If you want to see what strong travel demand looks like, look across the Atlantic. Ryanair, the largest airline in Europe by passenger volume, says it’s seeing record demand across its network of 37 countries, with fares up in the mid-teens year-over-year.

CEO Michael O’Leary said, “The whole of Europe seems to be traveling,” and recent earnings support that view. Ryanair’s fare outlook is “far stronger than we had expected,” according to analysts at Bernstein, potentially putting the company on track to replicate the profitability of spring 2023.

Demand for travel hasn’t disappeared. It’s just shifting geographically. Savvy investors can benefit from understanding where the action is moving.

Online Booking Platforms Offer Selective Strength

That brings us to the digital side of the travel business. Booking Holdings—the parent company of Booking.com, Priceline and OpenTable—was recently named IBD’s Stock of the Day after posting 22% earnings per share (EPS) growth and 8% sales growth in Q1. What’s key here is that Booking derives a majority of its revenue from Europe, giving it a natural advantage over U.S.-focused platforms like Expedia and Airbnb, which both flagged weakness in domestic travel.

This divergence is worth watching. As American travel preferences shift toward regional and road-based trips, and international travel increasingly favors Europe over transatlantic routes, platforms with broad, diversified exposure may come out ahead.

Cruise Lines Are Quietly Sailing Strong

Another area that’s sometimes overlooked, but increasingly important, is cruising. After a few tough years navigating pandemic-era restrictions and capacity limits, cruise lines are finally seeing smooth waters ahead.

Passenger volume has surged, especially in the post-pandemic recovery years. In 2023, cruise lines carried 31.7 million passengers, and that number jumped to 34.6 million in 2024, according to Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA). Forecasts suggest another 9% increase in 2025, reaching 37.7 million passengers, with continued growth projected to hit 42 million by 2028.

The third quarter, typically the high season for cruising, continues to be the industry’s strongest sailing period. In Q3 2024, 8.7 million passengers sailed on CLIA-member cruises, surpassing all previous seasonal peaks. These gains reflect not only pent-up demand but also fleet expansions and strategic deployments of larger, high-capacity ships, especially in popular destinations.

What Investors Should Watch

There’s no denying that parts of the travel industry are under pressure. Business travel to the U.S. declined 9% in April compared to last year.

But that’s only part of the story. As I see it, the broader trend is one of resilience. Consumers are still traveling, and planes are still packed. They’re just adjusting how and where they do it. And companies that are well-positioned in those areas—low-cost carriers in Europe, digital platforms with global exposure, airlines benefiting from lower fuel costs—stand to benefit.

Index Summary

• The major market indices finished down this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.47%. The S&P 500 Stock Index fell 2.61%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.47%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index lost 3.47% this week.
• The Hang Seng Composite gained 1.13% this week; while Taiwan was down 0.88% and the KOSPI fell 1.32%.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points to 4.51%.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was El Al, up 12.4%. According to JP Morgan, IndiGo’s fourth quarter 2025 headline results were a beat on consensus expectations. EBITDA was 9% ahead due to savings on most cost line items. Indigo yields surprised positively (+2% year-over-year) accompanied by ASK growth of 21% year-over-year. Revenues grew 24% year-over-year as the load factor improved to 87.4%. Fuel declined 7% year-over-year.
• Container ship bookings for China-to-U.S. cargo have surgedsince the countries declared a 90-day truce on punitive tit-for-tat tariffs last weekend, operators said, spawning traffic jams at Chinese ports and factories that could take weeks to clear. U.S. importers of sneakers and sofas to construction supplies and auto parts are racing to get goods in before the deadline resets tariffs again, Reuters reports.
• Cathay Pacific posted 35% revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) growth, outperforming 27% ASK growth and implying a notable improvement in passenger load factor, up 4.9ppt to 86.4%, UBS reports.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was Sabre, down 13.7%. Air France-KLM and Lufthansa have halted talks to buy a 25% stake in Spanish Airline Air Europa, news website El Confidencial reports.  Airlines view the Hidalgo family’s €1 billion valuation of Air Europa as too high.
• Air cargo demand was flat year-over-year in May 2025, reflecting disruptions from tariffs and changes to De Minimis policies. As a result, air cargo yields have declined compared to the same period last year, according to Bank of America.
• As reported by Reportur, the government of Nicolás Maduro announced yesterday the immediate suspension of all flights originating from Colombia until May 26. According to the Interior Minister Diosdalo Cabello, the suspension comes amidst concerns that mercenaries would be posing as tourists to enter the country and target political figures.

Opportunities

• Ryanair’s fare growth could reach 7–8% during the peak summer season if current trends persist, with the run rate suggesting potential upward revisions. While the company currently guides for 5–6% fare growth in peak summer (Q2 2026), Morgan Stanley notes that continued strength in late pricing could push this closer to 7–8%.

• Expectations on near-term spot shipping rate upside should pick up (especially North America), aided by easing of U.S. tariffs, rush demand growth tied to such tariffs, and the industry’s ability to correct freight space, according to Morgan Stanley.
• Although scheduled service is experiencing choppy trends like its peers, Sun Country is shifting its growth focus from passenger service to cargo in 2025 and has begun paying dividends. Additionally, an acceleration in close-in fares through April has led management to see “more positivity in bookings” than what is currently reflected in its guidance, according to Morgan Stanley.

Threats

• The FAA met with airlines to address Newark Airport delays. United, which handles ~70% of flights, proposed capping operations at 48/hour during construction and restoring slot controls, per Morgan Stanley.
• Widebody-freighter capacity on the transpacific trade lane has continued to recover over the past week but remains below year-ago levels. According to data from consultancy Rotate, capacity between Asia Pacific and North America increased 18% over the past 24 hours compared to the same period last week, equivalent to 10 additional widebody freighter flights.
• According to JP Morgan, the Pakistan airspace is currently closed for Indian airlines. International forms 28% of Indigo’s ASK and they fly directly to 40 destinations out of India. A 1% higher fuel cost impacts profit before tax by 3% while 1% higher repairs/maintenance impacts profit before tax by 1%. They estimate the profit before tax impact at 7%.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Ralph Lauren reported a bigger profit and a jump in revenue in the first three months of this year, due to higher prices and lower cotton costs. For the fiscal fourth quarter that ended March 29, the New York-based company posted a profit of $129 million, or $2.03 a share, for the first three months of 2025. That’s up from $90.7 million, or $1.38 a share, in the same quarter a year earlier.
• In May 2025, U.S. business activity strengthened as both the services and manufacturing PMIs rose to 52.3, signaling solid growth. The composite PMI also improved to 52.1, reflecting broad-based expansion driven by stronger domestic demand.
• Canada Goose Holdings was the top-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury sector, rising 30.1% over the past five days.

Weaknesses

• Shares of LVMH, which was named Europe’s largest company by market capitalization back in January of this year, continues its downward trend. Shares fell about 3% on Thursday, extending their year-to-date decline to roughly 25%. The company’s market value now stands at approximately 239 billion euros ($270 billion), dropping below that of Swiss packaged-food giant Nestlé SA.

• The Eurozone’s services sector PMI fell below the critical 50 mark in May 2025, signaling contraction for the first time in six months. The index dropped to 48.9 from April’s 50.1, reflecting the sharpest decline in services activity since January 2024. The unexpected drop in the services PMI dragged the overall composite PMI to 49.5.
• Cettire, an Australian online marketplace, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, falling 18.9%.

Opportunities

• Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe and home to many luxury companies, is expected to stagnate in 2025, with GDP growth forecast at zero for the year. This follows two consecutive years of contraction and reflects persistent economic challenges, including global trade tensions and weak export demand. However, a recovery is predicted in the coming years, with growth projected to return in 2026, supported by increased government spending on infrastructure and defense
• Toll Brothers posted strong quarterly results, beating expectations for both earnings and revenue. The company delivered more homes and saw an increase in new contracts, showing steady demand in the luxury housing market. Toll Brothers also reaffirmed its outlook for the rest of the year.
• A high-stakes phone call between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin took place on Monday, May 19, 2025, at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (5 p.m. Moscow time). Following their two-hour conversation, Putin agreed to begin working with Ukraine on a memorandum that could outline the principles and timeline for a potential future peace accord, including the possibility of a ceasefire if suitable agreements are reached. The prospect of a ceasefire and an end to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is expected to bring long-awaited relief to Europe and boost consumer confidence, although significant differences remain over the terms and sequencing of any settlement.

Threats

• Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt from Aaa to Aa1 highlights persistent concerns over the nation’s ballooning $36 trillion debt burden and rising fiscal deficits. This downgrade of U.S. debt shows worries about the country’s growing debt and budget problems, which could make it more expensive for the government to borrow money. This move might also shake investor confidence and cause interest rates to rise.
• Many companies are likely to keep raising prices to offset higher manufacturing costs from ongoing trade tariffs, and many have already passed these increases on to customers. However, with U.S. consumer confidence continuing to weaken—May’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8, its second-lowest level on record and nearly 30% below January—there is growing uncertainty about whether consumers will keep spending at the same pace.
• Williams-Sonoma shares fell 12% after reporting strong earnings because, even though sales and profits beat expectations, the company’s profit margins were lower than analysts had hoped. The company also warned about challenges from tariffs and economic uncertainty. Investors may continue to worry about future growth due to ongoing global uncertainties and increased market volatility.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was copper, rising 5.93%. Copper inventories outside the US are at the lowest level seasonally since 2023, as a surge in deliveries to the US ahead of potential tariffs has tightened ex-US markets. In China, social and bonded inventories are below the bottom of the seasonal range, but have started to stabilize in recent weeks, while LME inventories are still falling, according to Morgan Stanley.
• The Trump administration has granted the final federal permit for Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite project in Idaho, a gold and antimony mine deemed critical for U.S. mineral independence. The project is expected to supply about 35% of U.S. antimony demand and produce 450,000 ounces of gold annually in its early years. With China restricting exports of key minerals, the move is seen as a strategic effort to strengthen domestic supply chains and reduce foreign reliance.
• Blackstone Infrastructure is acquiring TXNM Energy, New Mexico’s largest utility, for $5.7 billion in cash—a deal reflecting a total enterprise value of $11.5 billion including debt, TXNM shareholders will receive $61.25 per share in cash. The move underscores the surging investor interest in power infrastructure as demand skyrockets from data centers, manufacturing, and broader electrification trends. TXNM, formerly PNM Resources, had a prior $4.3 billion deal with Avangrid blocked by regulators, making Blackstone’s successful bid a major step forward in utility consolidation.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing commodity for the week was iron ore, dropping 3.75% this week due to a combination of sector-specific and broader sentiment factors. The uncertainty surrounding the proposed $14 billion Nippon Steel–US Steel merger, which faced a split response from the U.S. national security panel, added regulatory and political risk to the steel industry outlook. This, coupled with rising concerns over global steel demand and potential overcapacity—highlighted by lackluster performance in related equities, has weighed heavily on iron ore prices, as the commodity is a key input in steel production.
• The UK North Sea “windfall” tax has not raised the additional revenue that was expected because there has not been a windfall to tax: oil prices are down 50% since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and gas prices are down 80% from their post-invasion peak, according to Stifel.
• Zijin Mining reported that partial underground operations at the Kakula Mine in the DRC have been suspended due to seismic activity, which caused multiple roof falls and rib-spalling in the mine’s eastern section. While no injuries occurred, the incident has forced a temporary reduction in output at the Phase 1 and 2 concentrators. The differing accounts between Zijin and Ivanhoe Mines—its joint venture partner—underscore a breakdown in communication with capital markets and could raise concerns about the joint operational risk and coordination at one of the world’s top copper developments.

Opportunities

• After briefly falling to a 550-day low amid tariff uncertainty and weak demand, uranium prices have rebounded 11%, signaling renewed interest and improved liquidity. At the same time, nuclear energy stocks surged as President Trump advanced executive orders to fast-track nuclear deployment—just as renewable tax credits are being scaled back. Together, these developments highlight a compelling opportunity for uranium, as nuclear gains traction as a stable, government-backed pillar of the future energy mix.

• After the Congo (75% of global cobalt output) announced a for-month export ban in February, cobalt jumped from $6 to $12/pound and has held onto these gains since then. The ban is due to expire in June, but recent news flow suggests the Congo is likely to keep exports restricted even when the ban expires, avoiding a flood of metal, while long transportation times will likely slow the impact of a resumption in exports too, according to Morgan Stanley.
• Andy Silvernail took the reins at International Paper (IP) with a bold mission: transform the legacy paper giant into a focused, high-margin packaging powerhouse. Rejecting the notion that the company was a fading commodity player, Silvernail is reshaping it around innovation in custom box design, high-value regional clients, and operational efficiency. Backed by a $7.2 billion acquisition of DS Smith and a renewed sales strategy, the 127-year-old firm is betting big on the humble cardboard box—not as a commodity, but as a platform for growth where IP has begun construction on a new $260 million plant in Waterloo, Iowa, which is set to be the largest in the U.S. This follows the closure of five sites in the U.K. as they adjust their supply chain to be U.S. sourced.

Threats

• The UK North Sea industry is being destroyed by taxes that are too high, taxes which threaten energy security, jobs, investment and economic growth. The impact of lower investment and production is already being felt through job losses, lower tax receipts, and more energy imports — Stifel views the OBR’s current forecast for North Sea tax receipts to 2030E as £10bn too high due to declining production and lower energy prices.
• The passage of the House tax and spending bill poses a major threat to the renewable energy sector, slashing tax credits that were key to scaling wind, solar, battery, EV and clean hydrogen projects under the Inflation Reduction Act. As government support weakens, project economics become more uncertain—jeopardizing future investments and slowing momentum at a critical time for the energy transition. This shift underscores rising policy risk and the growing vulnerability of clean energy sectors to political shifts.
• Rising underground pressure from wastewater injections in the Permian Basin is forcing Texas regulators to impose new restrictions, threatening crude production and driving up costs for major oil producers like Chevron, BP and Coterra. This also comes as a threat to the region’s wider economy, which is heavily dependent on the job creation from these operations, Bloomberg reports.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit, in collaboration with law enforcement agencies, successfully disrupted the “Lumma Stealer” malware, which had infected over 394,000 Windows computers globally, demonstrating effective coordination in combating cyber threats.
• The U.S. Justice Department’s investigation into the Coinbase data breach underscores a strong commitment to addressing security vulnerabilities within the crypto industry.
• There is bullish momentum in Bitcoin this week! The popular digital currency broke to an all-time high and held around 110,000 on May 22, reflecting renewed market confidence.

Weaknesses

• The Coinbase data breach involved the bribery of employees and contractors, exposing weaknesses in internal security protocols and resulting in significant financial and reputational risks.
• Quantum computing poses a potential threat to the encryption systems of digital currencies, with an estimated 25% of existing Bitcoins vulnerable to quantum attacks.
• The rise in threats against crypto executives highlights the growing need for enhanced personal security measures across the industry.

Opportunities

• Bitcoin’s price surged to a new all-time high above $111K during Thursday’s Asian trading hours, driving record activity in the Deribit options market, reports CoinDesk. The notional open interest (OI) reached a record $42.5 billion, reflecting heightened trading volume in both bullish and bearish options contracts.
• Texas is drawing closer to establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve, reports CoinDesk, following a senate bill to create one that was approved by the lower house. This would make Texas the second state to establish a strategic reserve for digital assets after New Hampshire.
• The disruption of Lumma Stealer malware provides an opportunity for the industry to strengthen cybersecurity measures and prevent future attacks.

Threats

• Cetus Protocol, the largest DEX on the Sui network, was exploited, reports CoinDesk, leading to a halt in trading and drained liquidity pools. The attacker used spoof tokens to exploit price curves and reserve calculations, manipulating liquidity to extract real assets.
• Advancements in quantum computing threaten to undermine the security of existing digital currency encryption systems, potentially leading to significant financial losses.
• The rise in threats and kidnappings targeting crypto executives underscores the need for robust security measures to protect individuals and assets in the industry.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• Leonardo, in partnership with Weststar, will supply up to 28 helicopters to Malaysia under a $3.5 billion contract, with deliveries expected in 2026–2027, marking a strong expansion in defense exports and regional presence in Asia.
• NVIDIA and Infineon are co-developing an 800V power architecture for AI data centers, enhancing power efficiency and reinforcing the synergy between semiconductors and AI infrastructure.

• The best performing stock this week was BWX Technologies, rising 9.18% after completing its acquisition of Kinectrics, BWX Technologies expanded its commercial nuclear and medical isotope capabilities and nearly doubled its Commercial Operations workforce.

Weaknesses

• Cisco announced a restructuring plan involving 7% workforce cuts and $1 billion in pre-tax charges, signaling internal challenges and potential slowdowns in legacy business segments.
• A major federal data breach caused by insiders at Opexus exposed critical cybersecurity gaps in government contractors, raising concerns about systemic digital vulnerabilities across federal infrastructure.
• The worst performing stock this week was Archer Aviation, which declined 20.38% following an increase in insider selling, including a recent sale of 80,919 shares worth $1 million, according to an SEC filing.

Opportunities

• Donald Trump announced a $175 billion Golden Dome missile defense initiative, with Lockheed Martin and other contractors as potential participants; the initial $25 billion allocation could drive long-term demand in the defense sector.
• AMD and Red Hat expanded their partnership to integrate high-performance computing with open-source platforms for AI and hybrid cloud environments, opening new markets in enterprise infrastructure.
• Latvia entered early-stage talks with Rheinmetall and Leonardo on local production of defense equipment, part of a broader Baltic push to build sovereign defense capacity amid growing regional threats from Russia.

Threats

• A Chinese-speaking threat group (UAT-6382) exploited a vulnerability in Trimble Cityworks software to breach U.S. government networks, using tools like Cobalt Strike and VShell. The incident underscores critical weaknesses in supply chain software security and the growing sophistication of state-linked cyber espionage. It raises concerns over the integrity of third-party infrastructure across public systems.
• Two Israeli embassy staffers were shot and killed in Washington, D.C. in an antisemitic attack, prompting heightened security at diplomatic missions and increasing international concern.
• The Lumma Stealer malware, operated as a service by threat actor Storm-2477, has grown more advanced and widespread, highlighting the increasing threat of malware-as-a-service and the need for stronger global cybersecurity coordination.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $3,339.00, up $151.80 per ounce, or 4.76%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week higher by 7.01%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up 2.40%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar fell 1.58%.

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the week was platinum, up 10.06%. Platinum surged to a two-year high, posting its strongest weekly gain over four years—up more than 10%—as supply concerns mount and the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a 1-million-ounce shortfall in 2025. Gold also climbed, buoyed by fiscal concerns in the U.S. following Moody’s downgrade and debates over Trump’s tax bill, with bullion up roughly 4% for the week and now trading around $3,330 an ounce.
• Gold is showing renewed strength, climbing for a fourth straight day as investors react to rising U.S. fiscal concerns and long-term deficit risks tied to President Trump’s tax-cut plans. With Treasury yields hitting multi-decade highs and global appetite for U.S. assets fading, gold has reasserted itself as a preferred haven—up nearly 4% this week and over 25% year-to-date. A weaker dollar has further fueled demand, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against structural economic uncertainty.
• Central bank and sovereign demand for gold remains a powerful tailwind, with China importing 127.5 metric tons last month—an 11-month high—as authorities eased restrictions to meet surging domestic appetite. Meanwhile, Ghana is scaling up small-scale gold production to generate up to $12 billion annually, using state-led gold buying to boost reserves and stabilize its economy. Together, these moves reflect how gold remains a critical strategic asset for nations navigating inflation, currency pressure, and macro uncertainty.

Weaknesses

• The least performing precious metal for the week was silver, still up 4.01%. Silver ETF holdings jumped by over 435,000 ounces in the latest session, pushing year-to-date inflows to 19.4 million ounces—a clear sign of strengthening investor demand. As gold rallies and fiscal concerns persist, silver is gaining traction as a leveraged play on precious metals, reinforcing its role as a core safe-haven and industrial asset.
• According to Scotia, Canadian and Mexican miners are likely to feel the largest impact from tariffs as they rely mostly on U.S. imports as the cheapest source of key inputs like diesel fuel, cyanide, tires, heavy equipment and parts.
• According to Scotia, open pit miners, particularly those with high stripping ratios and/or low grades, would see the largest increase in their operating costs in response to tariffs given that their cost structure relies more heavily on fuel, consumables, and equipment as compared to underground miners.

Opportunities

• Midweek a $16 billion Treasury auction was met with lackluster demand, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield on the note up 11 basis points to 4.60%. The recent downgrading of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s over concerns over the swelling U.S. debt and the currently pending tax cut bill has rattled investors who would traditionally park their money in the U.S. dollar for safety, but that trade appears to be unwinding with capital finding a safer place to park money is now gold, relative to dollar. The S&P 500 plunged 1.61% on the auction results, the worst drop in a month.

• Royal Gold announced that it has entered into agreements to acquire a gold stream and a net smelter return royalty on the Warintza Copper-Gold-Molybdenum Project in Ecuador. Total cash consideration for Royal Gold is $200 million. Royal Gold will receive 20 ounces of gold per million pounds of recovered copper, paying 20% of the spot gold price until 90,000 ounces are delivered, and 60% thereafter, according to Canaccord.
• Dundee and Adriatic Metals both announced that early discussions have commenced regarding a potential takeover of Adriatic Metals by Dundee, according to Scotia. Dundee specified that it is not certain that any offer will be made nor should the announcement be deemed as an intent to make an offer, although under UK rules an announcement to make a firm intention by Dundee is required not later than June 17, 2025.

Threats

• Johnson Matthey highlighted that “The key near-term uncertainty for the PGM market is the impact of higher import tariffs on the global economy. Material downside risk exists for automotive production (and hence PGM demand), both for exporters of finished vehicles to the USA, and for U.S. auto makers hit by increased duties on materials and components. Trade conflict also has the potential to inflict wider economic damage, which could dent automotive and industrial PGM demand more broadly, both inside and outside the USA, and would also be a drag on consumer spending on luxury items such as jewelry.”
• UBS reports that after Amplats recorded a larger-than-expected inventory build in Q1 2025, they now expect refined production to be weighted more heavily toward the second half of the year. While their full-year 2025 EBITDA estimate is only 3% lower, they project a significantly weaker first half (down 27% year-over-year), with unit costs likely to temporarily exceed the upper end of management’s full-year guidance of R18,500 per ounce.
• Bitcoin has broken an all-time high this week, which comes as a threat to gold—traditionally viewed as the go-to hedge against uncertainty and inflation. With options open interest hitting a record $48.2 billion and traders betting on extreme upside, including $300,000 strike calls, Bitcoin is drawing growing attention. Surging institutional demand, over $5 billion in spot ETF inflows this month, and renewed safe-haven narratives amid trade tensions and fiscal risks further challenge gold’s dominance in the minds of macro-focused investors.

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The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.