Tariffs Top $100 Billion as Trump’s Trade War Heats Up

U.S. customs duties topped $100 billion for the first time ever in a single year this month. That number is even more remarkable when you consider that most of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs haven’t even taken full effect yet.

As you’ve heard me say countless times before, government policy is a precursor to change. We’ve already seen some big changes in trade, but come August 1, we’ll see even more. Investors are experiencing a mix of strong market performance on the one hand and growing economic friction on the other.

Historic Tariff Revenues

The U.S. pulled in over $27 billion in tariffs in June alone, according to the Treasury Department. That helped produce a surprise $27 billion budget surplus for the month, something we haven’t seen in a long time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests that tariff revenue could exceed $300 billion by year-end if the administration’s plan stays on course.

Tariffs are clearly working as a revenue generator for the federal government. But keep in mind that tariffs are taxes, paid by American businesses and passed on to consumers in many cases.

Inflation may be creeping in already. June’s consumer price index (CPI) rose to 2.7% year-over-year, the highest rate in four months, and core inflation—excluding food and energy—is at 2.9%. The culprits? Imported consumer staples like clothes, shoes, furniture and electronics, which are facing some of the highest tariff rates since the 1930s.

For retirees and working families alike, that means higher prices at Walmart and Target, and fewer dollars left over to save or invest. Yale’s Budget Lab estimates that this year’s tariffs will cost the average U.S. household $2,500.

Big Pharma Braces for Impact

Auto prices, surprisingly, have dipped in recent months, likely due to an early surge in consumer demand ahead of new tariffs and incentives from dealers. I wouldn’t expect that trend to last. Analysts at Cox Automotive say the added cost from tariffs—up to $5,700 per imported vehicle—could eventually hit the most affordable models the hardest.

Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical sector is on high alert. Trump says his proposed drug import tariffs could begin at a low rate in August and ratchet up over the next year. According to the president, this is about bringing jobs home or making companies pay the price. Investors should watch this space closely, as health care stocks could be in for a wild ride.

S&P 500 Closes at a Record

Despite these headwinds, the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday. And June’s PPI (producer price index) inflation came in flat, defying predictions from every one of Bloomberg’s surveyed economists.

Earnings calls from S&P 500 companies show fewer concerns about inflation than at any time since 2021, according to Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders.

Looking at transcripts of S&P 500 companies, mentions of inflation—as of June—were at their lowest since January 2021 per ⁦@Bloomberg⁩ pic.twitter.com/tsqp0UMMnL

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 16, 2025

Manufacturing Execs Express Uncertainty

Not all business leaders are thrilled. A recent survey from the Atlanta Fed shows that 70% of executives overall report tariff-related uncertainty. That number jumps to nearly 90% in manufacturing. I see that as a red flag because when uncertainty is this high, companies tend to pull back on hiring and investment.

Historically, uncertainty has been an enemy of bull markets and long-term growth. The longer companies wait on new projects, the more it drags on GDP. Yale’s model suggests that U.S. economic growth this year will be approximately one percentage point lower due to tariffs, with a persistent 0.4% drag in the years to come.

Pharma Tariffs Loom as the Next Inflation Shock

Tariffs may bring in revenue and support reshoring efforts, but they also create friction. Certain sectors like industrials, autos and consumer discretionary will feel the pinch more acutely. Conversely, companies with domestic supply chains already in place and strong pricing power may fare better.

Gold also deserves a second look. Tariff-induced uncertainty and fiscal imbalances have tended to support demand for hard assets, especially if the Fed is constrained on rate cuts due to sticky inflation. As always, I recommend a 10% weighting in physical gold and gold mining stocks.

Again, keep your eye on August 1. That’s when the next wave of tariffs is set to roll out, potentially including those on pharmaceuticals. Whether markets stay calm or not may depend on how quickly businesses and consumers adapt.

Index Summary

• The major market indices finished mixed this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.07%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.59%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.51%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index gained 0.23% this week.
• The Hang Seng Composite gained 3.31% this week; while Taiwan was up 2.78% and the KOSPI rose 0.39%.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 1 basis point to 4.42%.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was Airports of Thailand, up 23.2%. According to UBS, bookings growth accelerated in June compared to May. Plus, domestic fares accelerated more than International for network players. American Airlines witnessed the most acceleration in June relative to a soft May.
• High-frequency SONAR data indicates robust trade activity, according to JP Morgan. Southeast Asia’s exports to the U.S. remain strong. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates U.S. imports to rebound in July.
• Transportation Secretary Duffy announced notable progress in accelerating the hiring and training of air traffic controllers through a streamlined process. Under this initiative, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has reduced the average time from application to academy admission by >5 months, enabling candidates to begin training faster. The FAA also expanded its academy capacity by 30%, with a record 550 students expected in training by the end of July, according to Morgan Stanley.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was Embraer, down 8.6%. Airbus delivered 170 commercial aircraft in 2Q25, 12 lower than RBC’s estimate and 11 lower than in 2Q24. The mix is a margin headwind, as the company delivered 19 fewer A320 family aircraft in 2Q25, and two fewer A350 aircraft.
• UPS domestic flight count declined 6% seq. this month. FedEx domestic flight count declined 9% seq. this month and is down 22% YOY, according to Morgan Stanley.
• Chinese airlines 2Q25 results are below Street expectations according to JP Morgan, as both China Eastern and China Southern remained loss-making. Chinese airlines’ pricing power remains weak, despite improved passenger load factor. Chinese airlines continue to struggle due to a lack of pricing power, partly attributable to constraints on disposable incomes amid a weak economic backdrop.

Opportunities

• JP Morgan sees the potential for continued pricing outperformance leading to upgrades at IAG. Three Transatlantic drivers drive this: (1) They see the most constrained market capacity at IAG’s mix of core markets through this year. (2) Weighted volume growth to/from the U.S. is currently positive for IAG’s core markets. (3) Premium demand commentary remains good for Euro/U.S. airlines and they estimate IAG has the highest premium seat penetration on the Transatlantic.

• FedEx announced U.S. package demand surcharges and fees as they prepare for “high demand during the holiday shipping season.” The fees will begin in late September and will fluctuate depending on the date, with peak pricing between November 24 and December 28, according to Morgan Stanley.
• According to Morgan Stanley, IndiGo has executed well in international short-haul operations and has seen its market share improve from 7% in 2019 to 19% in 2025. IndiGo currently has an orderbook of 60 wide-body aircraft and they estimate that by F31, IndiGo will have around 30-45 wide-body aircraft out of its total target fleet size of 600 aircraft.

Threats

• According to UBS, should the U.S. increase tariffs to 30% on Europe, this would be an additional $50 million free cash flow (FCF) headwind annually.
• Global port congestion remains elevated globally. Singapore faces berthing delays due to vessel bunching. Mexico shows signs of congestion amid labor disruptions. Persistent port congestion at key China ports impacts capacity, according to JP Morgan.
• UBS believes current Chinese airline share prices, which have reflected the market’s strong expectations of a passenger yield rebound in 2H25, are subject to downside risk at this point as: 1) international flight profitability could deteriorate due to weak demand in Southeast Asia; 2) domestic airfare may drop 5% YoY in H225 due to fragile air-travel demand.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strength

• China’s latest economic data surpassed forecasts, with second quarter GDP rising 5.2% year‑on‑year—outpacing the 5.1% expected and only slightly down from first quarter 5.4%. Industrial output jumped 6.8% in June, driven by strong manufacturing performance, while export momentum provided additional support. However, retail sales and fixed-asset investment lagged behind, reflecting weak domestic demand.
• Big U.S. banks reported strong second quarter results this week. Goldman Sachs saw a 22% profit jump thanks to record trading revenue. JPMorgan beat expectations and raised its interest income outlook. Morgan Stanley’s profit rose 15%, helped by growth in wealth management.
• Lucid Group, the electric vehicle manufacturer, was the top performer in the S&P Global Luxury Index, posting a gain of 32.8%. The stock was boosted by news that Uber Technologies is partnering with Lucid and Nuro to launch a robotaxi fleet, with plans to deploy at least 20,000 vehicles over the next six years

Weaknesses

• Swatch Group missed expectations in its first-half earnings this week, reporting a 7.1% drop in sales at constant exchange rates to CHF 3.06 billion, compared to analysts’ forecast of CHF 3.2 billion. The decline was driven by sharp weakness in Greater China—particularly a 30% fall in wholesale and 15% drop in retail sales.
• Jefferies downgraded Hermès—famed for its iconic Birkin and Kelly bags—from Buy to Hold, citing concerns that growth remains overly reliant on leather goods, which could limit future acceleration. They also lowered their estimates by about 3% below consensus, pointing to foreign exchange headwinds.
• Shiseido Corporation, the Japanese beauty company, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, declining 8.6% this week despite no significant news driving the move.

Opportunities

• The U.S. reported stronger-than-expected retail sales today, with consumer spending rebounding and boosting market optimism. U.S. retail sales in June rose 0.6% month‑over‑month, reaching $720.1 billion, and were up 3.9% year‑over‑year, well above economists’ forecasts of +0.1% MoM and +3.6% YoY.
• Swiss luxury powerhouse Richemont reported a 6% year-over-year increase in first quarter sales, reaching approximately €5.4 billion, driven by robust demand in its jewelry division—led by Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, which grew 11% despite a broader industry slowdown. This performance highlights how prestige jewellery is poised to be a standout opportunity within the luxury sector.
• Kering has been announced as the multiyear presenting sponsor of the Palm Springs International Film Festival, marking a strategic opportunity for the luxury group to deepen its presence in the U.S. market. This high-profile partnership aligns Kering’s brands—such as Gucci, Saint Laurent and Balenciaga—with the global entertainment industry.

Threats

• A Milan court has placed Loro Piana (owned by LVMH) under judicial administration for one year, following findings that its cashmere jackets were partly produced in Chinese‑owned workshops in Italy where workers were subjected to excessive hours (up to 90 per week), paid as little as €4/hour, and housed on-site under poor conditions. Authorities say this marks the fifth major Italian fashion house—including Dior, Armani, Valentino and Alviero Martini—to face similar findings under labor‑rights enforcement in recent years.
• This year, the luxury sector has seen clear winners and losers. LVMH is underperforming Hermès by 31% year-to-date due to slower growth in fashion and weaker demand in China and the U.S. Hermès continues to outperform with strong demand for its iconic, high-margin products. LVMH’s exposure to cyclical businesses like wine, spirits and cosmetics has added pressure.

• U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in five months in June, raising concerns about inflation pressures from tariffs, which could pose a threat to equity prices. The acceleration in inflation may also influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, potentially impacting market sentiment further.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was lumber, rising 11.33%. Lumber prices soared after Canada signaled it may agree to export quotas on softwood lumber, a move that would sharply restrict U.S. supply at a time when tariffs are already set to rise. With duties potentially more than doubling to 34.5% and Canadian producers like Canfor and West Fraser facing capped access, U.S. buyers rushed to secure inventory, igniting a price spike reminiscent of past supply crunches.
• Nano One Materials was selected to join the prestigious Arkansas Lithium Technology Accelerator (ALTA) program. This underscores its strategic importance as one of the few Western suppliers of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode technology, a critical battery technology with no U.S. presence until now. This news was recognized by the price gains this past week when Nano One began trading on the U.S. OTCQB under the ticker NNOMF. This recognition not only validates Nano One’s proprietary technology but also positions the company at the forefront of efforts to localize and secure the North American battery supply chain.

• Apple has signed a $500 million supply agreement with MP Materials to secure rare-earth minerals and jointly develop a cutting-edge recycling and magnet innovation facility in Mountain Pass, California. The deal follows the Pentagon’s $400 million investment in MP last week and underscores a broader U.S. push to reduce reliance on Chinese rare-earth supply chains amid ongoing trade tensions.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing commodity for the week was lead, dropping 2.15%. Lead sold off this week as rising inventories in China and weak seasonal demand signaled structural softness, especially from the battery sector. Bearish fund positioning and a stronger U.S. dollar further pressured prices, driving investor outflows from industrial metals across the board.
• Morgan Stanley downgraded several copper miners, citing their recent outperformance relative to LME copper prices and the expected impact of upcoming 50% U.S. tariffs on demand. While price targets were adjusted upward for Teck Resources, Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper, the firm sees limited near-term catalysts and increasing valuation concerns, with Nexa facing operational setbacks and weaker zinc price outlooks.
• China’s crude steel output fell 9.2% in June, marking the biggest drop in 10 months, as Beijing’s crackdown on industrial overcapacity and weak construction demand took a toll on key building materials. While steel and cement production slumped, aluminum bucked the trend by hitting a daily output record, buoyed by lower input costs and expanded smelting capacity.

Opportunities

• Lockheed Martin is in early-stage discussions with multiple mining companies to grant access to its seabed mining licenses in the Pacific, which are held through its UK subsidiary, UK Seabed Resources, under the authority of the International Seabed Authority (ISA). The move signals growing commercial interest in deep-sea mineral extraction, with Lockheed’s COO noting that prospective partners have identified tangible value in the resources covered by these licenses.
• The State of Oklahoma has potentially landed a $4 billion investment with Emirates Global Aluminum to generate 600,000 metric tons of primary aluminum which would nearly double current U.S. production levels. The energy to produce this aluminum would likely be sourced from the abundant natural gas reserves and resources in the region, being a boom to their economy should the project begin to break ground The state has won two credit upgrades in recent months and John Budd, CEO of the Oklahoma Department of Commerce, noted the announcement “catapults Oklahoma to the forefront of the critical minerals and aluminum industry in the United States.”
• Simon White of MacroScope Column highlighted this week that the “Spark for Global Liquidity Has Just Been Lit” where he points out that money growth in China looks like it is on a clear upward track at last. The latest data released this week showed an acceleration in M1’s ascent, with the annual growth rate jumping to 4.6%, from 2.3% the prior month and only 0.4% at the start of the year. Money in China is the most critical driver of global liquidity. It’s easy to forget in a financial world dominated by the U.S. that, when it comes to money, China is the biggest player, with its M1 of $16 trillion compared to the U.S. at $8 trillion. Simon covered the signals he sees that make him consider “There is thus a sizeable chance China is about to finally turn a corner, stoking global inflation and leading to lower real yields as central banks, whether it be due to growth concerns or fiscal dominance, get stuck behind the curve. 

Threats

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese focused his visit to China on strengthening trade ties and economic cooperation, deliberately sidestepping contentious security issues like Taiwan and military tensions in the Asia-Pacific. While reaffirming support for the One China policy and advocating for the status quo, Albanese emphasized Australia’s intent to maintain diversified global partnerships amid renewed U.S.-China trade friction under President Trump.
• President Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on Russian goods is raising alarm among American farmers, who fear a sharp rise in fertilizer prices—particularly urea and urea ammonium nitrate—critical for corn and soybean production. With low crop prices already squeezing margins, any disruption to affordable nitrogen supplies could reduce yields and force farmers to scale back operations or delay equipment upgrades.
• Rio Tinto reported over $300 million in gross costs from U.S. aluminum tariffs in the first half of the year, highlighting the disruptive impact of President Trump’s trade policies on North American metals supply chains. While higher U.S. premiums offset some of the cost, the miner warned that the 50% tariff level is eroding profitability and weighing on downstream demand.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the best performer for the week was Curve Dao, rising 47%.
• Congress passed the first federal legislation to regulate stablecoins, which imposes federal or state oversight on dollar-linked tokens. Supporters say the bill could unlock faster, cheaper forms of payments and bring legitimacy to the crypto industry, according to backers of the bill and reported by Bloomberg.
• Tokens perceived to benefit from regulatory changes and increased tokenization of financial assets, including Ethereum and Ripple, have outperformed lately, indicating traders may be rotating holdings more than taking directions bets on the space, writes Bloomberg.

Weaknesses

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the worst performing for the week was Pump fun, down 31%.
• Vanguard executives say Bitcoin is not “appropriate” for long-term investors and is an “immature asset class” with no inherent economic value. Vanguard executives channeling the logic of the venerable Jack Bogle have made their opinions on crypto clear, according to Bloomberg. 
• Uniswap Labs President and COO Mary-Catherines Lader has exited the firm. A spokesperson of Uniswap thanks Lader “for her four years of leadership and will continue to build on her contributions by remaining focused on our users, partners, and DeFi community,” writes Bloomberg.

Opportunities

• Pakistan and El Salvador have established bilateral ties with cryptocurrency cooperation at the center of the relationship. Bilal Bin Saqib met with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele to discuss a knowledge-sharing partnership, according to a statement by the Pakistan minister’s office. Pakistan has allocated 2,000 megawatts for Bitcoin mining and plans to create a national Bitcoin reserve and has established the Pakistan Digital Assets Authority to regulate the industry, according to Bloomberg. 
• A team of crypto hedge fund executives are planning to invest as much as $200 million in Windtree Therapeutics to create a public crypto treasury company holding BNB tokens, the native token of the Binance blockchain, according to Bloomberg. 
• Bitcoin breached $120,000 for the first time, with investor enthusiasm showing signs of dimming as the U.S. House of Representatives prepares to consider key industry legislation. Progress on crucial crypto legislation is adding fresh fuel to the rally with the prospect of a clear US regulatory framework bolstering confidence in the asset class among institutional investors writes Bloomberg.  

Threats

• $2.17 billion was stolen from crypto services and individual wallets through June, according to blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis. Eric Jardine, cybercrimes research lead at Chainalysis, said, “It’s sort of fair to say there’s a high degree of technical sophistication in these hacks, and the more security layers that get put into place by crypto services, the more sophisticated bad actors have to become,” writes Bloomberg. 
• Roger Ven has sued Spain to block his extradition to the U.S. to face tax evasion charges, claiming Spain violated his legal protections. U.S. prosecutors charged Ver with evading more than $48 million in taxes due from profits made by selling crypto tokens, according to Bloomberg.
• Former Binance executives Samuel Wenjun Lim and Diinghua Xiao urged a court to remove them from an FTX trust’s lawsuit, saying the U.S. bankruptcy court lacks jurisdiction over them. Lim and Xiao said they never received any benefit from the FTX transfers in question and that the true beneficiary of any alleged transfer was Binance, writes Bloomberg.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• AeroVironment (AVAV) will be added to the S&P 400 MidCap Index on July 18, 2025, reinforcing its growing institutional appeal amid strong financial results and surging demand for tactical drones. Analysts maintain “Buy” ratings with raised price targets, as the company continues its powerful uptrend fueled by a $1.2B backlog and bullish FY2026 guidance.

• Nvidia received approval from the U.S. government to resume exports of its H20 AI chips to China, leading to a surge in its stock price and boosting related shares in Japan’s Nikkei index.
• The best-performing stock this week was Rocket Lab, rising 31.67% after CFRA raised its price target to $55 from $40 and reaffirmed a Strong Buy rating, citing bullish momentum and strengthening demand in the space and defense sectors. The upgrade sparked a wave of call option activity, led by aggressive buying of $55 strike calls, signaling investor confidence in further upside.

Weaknesses

• Israel bombed Syrian army headquarters in Damascus after warning the Islamist-led government to stop attacking the Druze in Sweida, where nearly 250 people have died in brutal clashes involving Syrian forces, Bedouin fighters and Druze militias.
• Russian hackers claim they’ve breached Ukraine’s critical “Delta” combat system, the so-called digital brain of the army used for tracking troops, drones and guiding strikes — gaining full access to cloud-based data, possibly with insider help, as Kyiv now scrambles to patch vulnerabilities. Also, China just promised Russia “deeper support” as Trump’s threats escalate that’s from The Telegraph
• The worst-performing stock this week was Byrna Technologies, which declined by 5.33% after earnings, based on rising operating expenses, increased inventory levels, and a sharp decline in cash reserves, which raised concerns about near-term margin pressure and working capital efficiency.

Opportunities

• Australia, Japan and the U.S. just signed their first trilateral maritime logistics deal to boost joint operations, streamline repairs, refueling and evacuations, and expand missile transfer capabilities and at-sea refueling between their naval forces.
• Oracle has announced a significant $3 billion investment to expand its AI and cloud infrastructure in Germany and the Netherlands, enhancing its cloud capabilities in these regions.
• Ukraine’s Ukroboronprom and US-based D&M Holding are launching a joint venture to produce gunpowder in the US, boosting Ukraine’s ammo production—especially 155mm shells—while ensuring supply security away from Russian attacks.

Threats

• French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Europe faces its greatest threat since WWII, calling Russia France’s main adversary, and announced a major defense spending boost—with plans to hit €67B by 2030—saying France must stay powerful, self-reliant and ready to lead amid rising global threats.
• U.S. weapons deliveries to Ukraine through NATO countries could take years because of issues with previously agreed shipments — that’s according to Politico citing a Pentagon source.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $3358.7, down $9.30 per ounce, or 0.28%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 2.18%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up 1.85%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar fell 0.63%.

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 1.11%. Palladium prices rose as ETFs posted their sixth straight day of inflows, adding 3,542 ounces and pushing year-to-date gains in holdings to 19%. The consistent buying helped lift sentiment and added price support, with palladium hitting a 52-week high of $1,248.12 per ounce.
• Gold served its purpose as an inflation hedge as investors piled into the metal after reports surfaced that Trump may fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell to force interest rate cuts. Markets interpreted the move as inflationary—viewing aggressive rate cuts as destabilizing—fueling a flight to gold and lifting gold mining stocks.

• Newmont said it sold shares in Greatland Resources and Discovery Silver for aggregate cash consideration of about $470 million. They remain on track to deliver on its 2025 guidance, the company said in a press release.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing precious metal for the week was silver, down 1.41%. Silver backed off as some profit-taking set in after its uptick last week. Silver remains well-positioned to benefit as a base metal, poised to cool down as some expect a historic bull run in the precious metal.
• Gold Road Resources had a second weak quarter, which RBC expects put CY25 guidance at risk. 1H25 is annualizing at 288,000 ounces versus guidance of 325,000-355,000 ounces. They also forecast all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance (A$2400-2600/ounce) will be missed at A$2668/ounce.
• Gold fell as the dollar gained after President Donald Trump downplayed the prospect of replacing Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. Bullion and the greenback were whipsawed on Wednesday amid a bout of panic over Powell’s future, as a White House official said they expected Trump to soon move against the Fed chief. The president later said he is “not planning on doing anything” to remove Powell, calming markets.

Opportunities

• B2Gold Corp. announced positive results from the Feasibility Study for its 100%-owned Gramalote gold project in Colombia. The study outlines 6 million tons per year, open-pit mine with an initial 13-year life, producing 2.26 million ounces of gold at an AISC of $985/ounce. The project shows an after-tax NPV of $941 million and an IRR of 22.4% at $2,500/oz gold, with initial construction capital estimated at $740 million, according to Canaccord.
• According to RBC, the platinum market is forecasted by every major consultant to remain in deficit for the foreseeable future. The gold price remains 2.4x the platinum price, inviting both investment demand and jewelry demand (particularly in China). The threat of U.S. tariffs is not expected to subside, and stocks may begin to recover. Mine supply should recover from Q1, but it is still on course to deteriorate in the years ahead.
• AngloGold Ashanti has entered into a definitive agreement with Augusta Gold to acquire its entire issued and outstanding capital at C$1.70/share (C$152M) in cash. This is a small transaction for AngloGold but allows the company to consolidate the Beatty district further and provides greater infrastructure flexibility for the future development of AngloGold’s large-scale Arthur project in Nevada, according to BMO.

Threats

• The Indonesian Government is considering collecting export levy on gold and coal to boost state revenue, reports local news outlets Bisnis and Kontan, citing Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia. The rule will be “flexible,” whereby the government collects levies when commodity prices are high, and not when they are low, says the report, citing Lahadalia.
• According to Morgan Stanley, South African PGMs sector AIC margins remain at close to 30-year highs and valuations continue to appear relatively fully priced, in their view: (1) they currently do not see further upgrade risk to earnings at spot; (2) the equities trade on 12-month forward free cash flow (FCF) yields of 12-14%, which is fair to rich for this point in the cycle.
• Newmont announced that its CFO, Karyn Ovelmen, resigned on July 11, 2025. BMO is somewhat surprised as she had only been in the role for 2 years. The company states her departure was not due to any disagreement on any matter.

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Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (06/30/2025): 

The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Hermes International SCA

Cie Financiere Richemont SA

Kering SA

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton

Christian Dior SE

Nano One Materials Corp.

Teck Resources Ltd.

Freeport McMoRan Inc.

Newmont Corp.

Discovery Silver Corp.

B2Gold Corp.

Anglogold Ashanti Plc

American Airlines Group Inc.

Airbus SE

United Parcel Service Inc.

FedEx Corp.

Embraer SA

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

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The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.

The S&P MidCap 400 is a benchmark index that tracks the performance of 400 midsized publicly traded companies in the United States.

The Nikkei 225, or the Nikkei Stock Average more commonly called the Nikkei or the Nikkei index is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).