Trump’s Gulf Visit Ignites Record Military Sales and AI Infrastructure Boom

President Donald Trump’s first overseas trip since returning to the White House is turning heads across the aerospace & defense and semiconductor industries. Over the course of just a few days, he visited three key Persian Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—where a cascade of economic agreements potentially totaling into the trillions of dollars was unveiled

One of the marquee announcements was a $142 billion arms deal, part of a broader $600 billion commercial package between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Touted by the White House as the “largest defense sales agreement in history,” the deal includes “state-of-the-art warfighting equipment” and services from more than a dozen American defense companies, though none are named.

Saudi Arabia is already the largest U.S. foreign military sales (FMS) customer, with nearly 80% of its defense acquisitions coming from American companies. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Saudi Arabia spent more than $80 billion on defense in 2024, making it the seventh-largest military spender in the world and by far the largest in the Middle East.

The Saudis aren’t alone. The UAE and Qatar have also made substantial defense purchases in recent months, including advanced drones, helicopters and counter-drone systems. As geopolitical uncertainty grows, Gulf nations are doubling down on deterrence, and they’re looking to the U.S. for the tools to do it.

Betting Big on AI Infrastructure and American Semiconductors

One of the more striking takeaways from the trip might be the emergence of AI and semiconductors as critical assets in the defense toolkit.

In Saudi Arabia, a new state-backed initiative called HUMAIN is leading a multibillion-dollar push to build an “AI Zone,” in partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The project, which will feature dedicated server farms powered by American semiconductors, is part of a broader effort to localize advanced tech manufacturing and training within the Kingdom.

NVIDIA, the world’s leading AI chipmaker, is expected to provide HUMAIN with at least 18,000 of its cutting-edge GB300 Grace Blackwell processors along with its high-speed InfiniBand networking hardware. Over the next five years, that number could reach several hundred thousand chips. Meanwhile, the UAE is negotiating for more than a million NVIDIA chips, enough to radically boost its own AI infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia’s AI investments alone could generate $3 to $5 billion in annual chip sales, with longer-term infrastructure spending estimated at $15 to $20 billion, according to Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya. That would make sovereign AI one of the fastest-growing verticals in the broader $450 billion AI infrastructure market.

Aviation Remains a Strategic Pillar

Aviation shouldn’t be overlooked. In Qatar, Boeing signed its largest-ever widebody aircraft deal, a $96 billion order with Qatar Airways for up to 210 American-made jets. Powered by GE Aerospace engines, the order includes both the 787 Dreamliner and 777X platforms.

This deal alone underscores the continued strategic value of aerospace as a core pillar of both economic and national security policy. Commercial aircraft deals often include co-production agreements, pilot training and maintenance support—capabilities that enhance soft power while reinforcing the industrial base.

Global Military Spending on a Relentless Uptrend

All of this comes against a backdrop of surging global military budgets. World defense spending hit a record $2.7 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% year-over-year increase and the sharpest rise since at least 1988, according to SIPRI. Spending has risen for 10 consecutive years, with gains across all five global regions.

Meanwhile, NATO is moving toward a new target of 5% of GDP for defense spending, up from the longstanding 2% benchmark. Both Germany and the U.S. have endorsed the increase, and the final plan is expected to be unveiled at the NATO summit this June.

The world isn’t de-escalating. It’s rearming, with greater urgency, more advanced tools and higher price tags.

I see these trends as a growing opportunity across multiple sectors—defense contractors, semiconductor makers, AI infrastructure providers and aerospace manufacturers. While individual names and strategies must be evaluated with care, the broader momentum is unmistakable.

To receive info on investment opportunities in aerospace & defense, email us at info@usfunds.com with the subject line DEFENSE.

Index Summary

• The major market indices finished up this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.41%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 5.27%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 7.15%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index gained 4.46% this week.
• The Hang Seng Composite gained 2.06% this week; while Taiwan was up 4.44% and the KOSPI rose 1.92%.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 6 basis points to 4.45%.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was Sabre, up 14.8%. CIBC reports that Air Canada is launching a $500M tender offer via a modified Dutch auction. Shareholders can tender shares by, 1) specifying a price between $18.50 and $21.00 per share, or 2) opting to sell at the final price determined by the auction.
• Reuters cites the text of the executive order released last night, which states that the “de minimis” tariff on small packages valued at up to $800 will be reduced from 120% to either 54% or a flat $100 fee. Industry sources say carriers can choose to pay either the 54% rate or the $100 per package rate.
• According to RBC, Boeing reported 45 commercial deliveries in April, up from 24 last year. Across the 45 deliveries, Boeing reported 29 MAX deliveries, one 737NG, eight 787s, four 777s, and three 767s. Qatar Airways and Boeing announced the carrier will purchase up to 210 widebody jets, which sets new records as the largest widebody order for Boeing.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was Airports of Thailand, down 11.8%. The imposition of a higher tariff on U.S. imports has intensified financial pressures on Chinese airlines, explains JP Morgan, significantly raising expenses for maintenance and new aircraft deliveries. This tariff particularly impacts the existing Boeing fleet, as well as delays new Boeing aircraft deliveries. Increased costs associated with maintaining and acquiring Boeing aircraft are straining the financial resources of Chinese airlines.
• According to CIBC, Flexport noted that during the initial three weeks of May, 34% of trans-Pacific capacity has been reduced due to blank sailings and service cancellations.
• Azul reported disappointing first quarter 2025 results, missing Bloomberg consensus estimates, reports JP Morgan. The company delivered EBITDA of R$1,386 million (down 2% year-over-year, down 17% versus consensus). The miss was mainly driven by 9% higher-than-anticipated CASK ex-fuel.

Opportunities

• Newark’s air traffic control facility in Philadelphia has suffered from a few outages, says Bank of America. United Airlines has announced it is canceling 30-35 flights per day to relieve congestion at the airport, with the cancellations focused on regional/small mainline aircraft while keeping its global long-haul network intact. This issue is likely short-term as June 15 is the date that could return the airport to normal operations as runway work is completed, and air traffic controllers are back on the job.
• The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days. Bank of America sees the trade deal is likely to trigger an early transpacific container peak season as customers rush to ship holiday cargo earlier-than-usual and replenish inventories which are likely to drive transpacific spot rates higher. Air cargo could also see some upturn in China-U.S. cargo flows, although the boost is unlikely as much container shipping with tech products is already exempted and with Chinese eCommerce flows still likely depressed.
• According to TD, an announcement regarding the divestiture of Sunseeker by Allegiant is the next big catalyst for the stock. Management expects the transaction to be completed by the end of summer. This would remove a major overhang on the stock, improve margins, and make for a cleaner story.

Threats

• According to Bank of America, Air Canada meaningfully reduced US-Canada transborder capacity in line with recent commentary with growth down in September/October by -760/-930bps. Air Canada’s transborder growth is now down high-single to low-double digits from April-September.
• Currently, container vessel operations remain 90% below normal, constraining close to 7% of global container vessel capacity, as the Bab el-Mandeb strait is suffering from geopolitical developments in the region, triggered by Houthi rebel attacks on commercial shipping, reports JP Morgan.
• United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has called for flight limitations at Newark as flight travel chaos and disruptions afflict customers and threaten overall air traffic safety. Mr. Kirby noted that United and other industry leaders have proactively reduced the number of flights at the airport to create more space to allow for capacity constrained air traffic controllers and the broader technological systems some reprieve.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Automakers and luxury stocks recorded strong gains at the beginning of this week after the United States and China announced a temporary reduction in import tariffs. Luxury goods manufacturers, which had suffered declines in recent months, rebounded sharply on Monday: LVMH jumped 5%, Hermes gained 2%, and other European luxury names like Ferragamo, Kering, Swatch, Christian Dior, Richemont, Moncler, and Hugo Boss all climbed between 3% and 8%.
• As of the first quarter of 2025, the Eurozone economy experienced a quarterly growth rate of 0.4%, surpassing initial forecasts of 0.2%. This growth was primarily driven by robust performance in Spain and a significant 3.2% increase in Ireland, which was influenced by foreign corporate activities.
• Melco International, a Hong Kong casino and gaming company, was the top-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury sector, rising 35.6% over the past five days. Its shares jumped 21% on Friday after trading began without the rights to buy discounted new shares, prompting a price adjustment and attracting more buyers.

Weaknesses

• Salvatore Ferragamo reported group revenue of €221.1 million for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 2.6% decrease compared to the same period last year. This result was slightly below analyst expectations and was primarily impacted by weak sales in the Asia Pacific region.
• In the United States, April retail sales came in softer than expected, rising just 0.1% month-over-month, missing consensus estimates of a 0.2% increase, and sharply down from March’s upwardly revised 1.7% gain. Even excluding autos, sales rose only 0.1%, well below the 0.3% forecast and March’s revised 0.8%.
• Beneteau, a producer of sailboats and motorboats for recreational and racing purposes, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, falling 5.9%. Shares sold off after the company reported weaker-than-expected financial results.

Opportunities

• Hyatt Hotels Corporation is undergoing significant expansion, particularly in its luxury and lifestyle segments, with a robust pipeline of new openings and renovations planned through 2025. The company is set to open more than 35 luxury hotels and resorts globally, including properties under the Park Hyatt, Grand Hyatt, Miraval, Alila, Andaz, Thompson Hotels, and The Unbound Collection by Hyatt brands, as well as its Inclusive Collection brands like Zoëtry Wellness & Spa Resorts and Dreams Resorts & Spa.
• Tesla captured global headlines this week as President Donald Trump and CEO Elon Musk embarked on a high-profile diplomatic and business tour of the Middle East. One of the most talked-about moments came in Doha, where President Trump’s motorcade was escorted by at least two bright red Tesla Cybertrucks operated by Qatar’s Internal Security Force, showing the country’s interest in the advanced electric vehicles.
• Burberry reported stronger-than-expected results this week, with group retail sales declining 6%, better than the anticipated 7.8% drop. Sales in all regions except the Americas outperformed expectations, reflecting early signs of recovery for the British luxury brand amid ongoing turnaround efforts.

Threats

• The United States has been a key driver of global luxury sales, but this week’s retail data points to growing signs of consumer fatigue. Spending shows signs of slowing, even in core categories, reflecting mounting pressure from persistent inflation and elevated interest rates. The data highlights a potential vulnerability in the U.S. economy as consumer resilience begins to fade.
• Several luxury companies have recently announced layoffs amid challenging market conditions. Burberry plans to cut up to 1,700 jobs, representing about 20% of its global workforce, as part of a cost-cutting and restructuring effort. Similarly, French cosmetics giant L’Oréal is preparing to reduce its travel retail workforce in China by up to 50%, responding to a prolonged slump in duty-free sales and weakening consumer demand in the region.
• Cartier, owned by Swiss luxury group Richemont, is losing market share in China due to the rapidly growing jewelry brand Laopu Gold. Founded in Beijing in 2009 by Xu Gaoming, Laopu specializes in traditionally crafted gold jewelry that blends Chinese cultural elements with modern design. Since its Hong Kong IPO in June 2024, Laopu’s market value has soared from around $870 million to $16 billion, making it the most valuable Chinese jewelry brand. The company achieved this remarkable growth with just 38 stores, focusing on exclusivity and premium pricing, and has attracted affluent customers who previously favored international brands like Cartier and Tiffany.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was iron ore, rising 5.48%. Nucor’s temporary steel production halt from a cybersecurity breach adds pressure to North America’s tightening steel supply. Meanwhile, Chinese brokers are cutting net-long aluminum positions, hinting at shifting demand back to steel. This may signal rising expectations for a steel rebound in China, supporting a bullish outlook for global prices.
• South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility, which owns the world’s largest forging press, and Hyundai Engineering & Construction are key players in a coordinated national effort to export nuclear reactors, backed by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) and Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO). Their $20 billion Barakah project in the UAE—completed with minimal delays—and their selection as the preferred bidder for an $18 billion Czech deal highlight how Korea’s state-backed industrial network is emerging as a rival to global nuclear giants like China’s CNNC and Russia’s Rosatom.
• A spring heat wave is descending on the Central U.S., sending temperatures soaring over the next few days from the Canadian border to Texas. More than 130 daily high temperature records may either be broken or tied, according to the weather service. In Texas, the heat will last until next week, according to Bloomberg, but so far in Texas it has been milder than forecast.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing commodity for the week was natural gas, dropping 12.41%, perhaps on weaker than expected demand. Vistra’s $1.9 billion gas plant acquisition positions it to tap into AI-driven power demand, but global gas trends expose risks. Egypt’s switch from gas to fuel oil reflects rising costs and supply strains, highlighting how price volatility can squeeze margins and force costly alternatives—threatening free cash flow for gas-dependent utilities.
• Ongoing legal challenges to Rio Tinto’s Arizona copper mine highlight regulatory and environmental weaknesses, as opponents argue the land transfer bypasses proper public review and threatens sacred tribal land. The dispute underscores the reputational and operational risks miners face when pushing projects without fully addressing environmental policy gaps and stakeholder concerns.
• The London Metal Exchange is exploring curbs on oversized speculative bets as commodity markets become increasingly dominated by energy traders, placing positions far larger than available inventories. This hyper-speculation has distorted price signals and raised systemic risks, prompting calls for tighter oversight to protect market integrity. As regulators prepare to shift oversight to the exchanges themselves, pressure is mounting to discourage profit-driven speculation that undermines the true purpose of commodity markets, Bloomberg reports.

Opportunities

• According to the Financial Times, BP is vulnerable to a potential takeover by global peers due to its depressed market cap, which has been dragged down by its aggressive energy transition plans which were eventually seen as unrealistic.
• The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust announced the completion of a $25.55 million non-brokered private placement of trust units. Canaccord views this as positive. The placement was non-dilutive, with investors purchasing trust units at NAV. Uranium markets are starting to catch a bid again this year with nuclear back in focus again.
• Hitachi-GE Nuclear Energy has reached a major milestone by delivering critical components—including reactor internals and control systems—for North America’s first small modular reactor, the BWRX-300, at Ontario Power Generation’s Darlington site. This marks a pivotal step in advancing SMR deployment, leveraging Hitachi’s proven BWR technology and deepening collaboration with both Japanese and Canadian supply chains to support future reactor builds.

Threats

• Guinea has become a key bauxite supplier, with last year’s rally driven by a partial export suspension. General Mamadi Doumbouya reaffirmed that contract compliance is non-negotiable and called for the removal of permits from companies that fail to meet legal obligations, according to Bank of America.
• China’s use of rare earths in its trade war with the U.S. may drive greater focus on American critical mineral security, says MP Materials, the only U.S. rare earth miner. “The system is broken, and rare-earth Humpty Dumpty isn’t getting put back together,” CEO Jim Litinsky said on an earnings call.
• President Trump appears to prefer U.S. oil prices between $40 and $50 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs, based on an analysis of nearly 900 oil-related social media posts. His posting activity drops when WTI is in that range, suggesting it as his comfort zone, analysts said.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the best performer for the week was dogwifhat, rising 55%.
• Coinbase Global shares jumped as much as 26% on Tuesday, the biggest intraday gain since November 6 to the highest level since February, after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will join the S&P 500 Index before trading open May 19. The stock wiped out a year-to-date decline that stood at 17% through Monday, writes Bloomberg.

• Strategy bought 13,400 Bitcoin for $1.4 billion from May 5 to May 11, at an average purchase price of $99,856 per Bitcoin. This brings Strategy’s total holdings to 568,840 Bitcoin, reports Bloomberg.

Weaknesses

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the worst performer for the week was DeXe, down 13%.
• Galaxy Digital shares are down as much as 3.1% after the crypto and data center company reported a net loss per share of $0.86, as crypto prices fell during the quarter, explains Bloomberg. First-quarter losses were driven primarily by the depreciation of digital asset prices, a one-time $57 million impairment charge, and disposal costs related to the wind-down of mining operations at the company’s Helios data center campus.
• Andrew Peel, Morgan Stanley’s digital asset head, is leaving the bank to start his own crypto and digital asset investment fund and trading technology firm. Peel’s move comes as Morgan Stanley prepares to add cryptocurrency trading to its retail-focused E*TRADE platform, expected to launch next year, according to Bloomberg.

Opportunities

• D2X, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, will allow institutional clients to keep their trading collateral with ABN Amro Clearing Bank, reducing counterparty risk and increasing capital efficiency, Bloomberg explains. D2X, backed by Point72 Ventures and Flow Traders, euro-denominated Bitcoin and Ether futures and plans to introduce dollar-denominated futures and options.
• eToro Group’s U.S. IPO attracted orders for more than 20 times the number of shares available in the upsized offering. The 10 largest accounts took 55% of the shares, according to a Bloomberg article.
• Galaxy Digital Holdings is in talks with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to tokenize its own stock and other equities using its digital-asset platform. The company aims to turn its shares into tokens for use in decentralized-finance applications, and eventually tokenize other assets like stock, fixed income, and ETF.

Threats

• Hackers bribed Coinbase contractors or employees outside the U.S. to steal sensitive customer data and demanded a $20 million ransom. The incident could cost Coinbase up to $400 million to remediate, although less than 1% of the exchange’s monthly transacting users were affected. Coinbase has refused to pay the ransom and is offering a $20 million bounty for information leading to those responsible.
• Prosecutors disclosed that the U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Network told them that Samourai wallet, a crypto-mixing service, didn’t qualify as a money service business required to have a license and anti-money laundering controls, according to Bloomberg.
• The daughter and grandson of a French crypto exchange CEO were targeted in a failed kidnap attempt, says Bloomberg, adding to the growing number of crypto-related kidnapping cases in the country. A video widely shared on social media showed the attempt, in which three masked men wrestled the women and another person to the ground in Paris.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• Germany’s endorsement of NATO’s 5% GDP defense target and the $142 billion U.S.–Saudi arms deal signal long-term growth for defense contractors like Rheinmetall, Lockheed Martin, General Atomics, and Renk Group.

• Nvidia and Super Micro secured multibillion-dollar partnerships in Saudi Arabia, indicating rising demand for AI compute power and deepening ties between defense tech and data infrastructure.
• Archer Aviation rose 9.11% this week, making it the top performer in the XAR ETF. Its designation as the official air taxi provider for the LA28 Olympics boosts global visibility and validates real-world use of eVTOLs. The partnership also strengthens investor confidence in regulatory progress and positions Archer as a leader in urban air mobility.

Weaknesses

• The recent Russia–Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul ended without any substantial progress toward a ceasefire or territorial resolution. Despite early hopes, the only concrete outcome was a limited prisoner exchange of 1,000 individuals per side—not a full swap. The absence of Putin and Russia’s maximalist demands undermined the credibility and seriousness of the negotiation process.
• Lockheed’s F-35 program continues to face delays and cost pressures, while Trump’s proposed $542 billion “Golden Dome” missile shield faces skepticism due to unclear execution plans.
• V2X was the worst performer in the XAR ETF this week, falling 8.2% after a secondary offering of 2 million shares by major shareholder Vertex Aerospace. Though V2X isn’t issuing new shares or receiving proceeds, the increased float may add short-term pressure on the stock.

Opportunities

• The Rheinmetall–ICEYE satellite joint venture and the naval partnership between Kongsberg and BAE Systems reflect a growing trend of multinational defense collaboration. These initiatives enhance capabilities in space-based surveillance and maritime systems while securing NATO-aligned industrial supply chains.
• The disarmament of the PKK after four decades of armed conflict may allow Turkey to shift its focus from internal security to regional diplomacy and economic reconstruction. It also opens the door for constitutional reforms that could improve Kurdish representation and ease long-standing tensions.
• Thales’ radar contracts in Brazil underscore a global shift toward upgrading airspace control systems, especially in emerging markets. This sustained demand for surveillance technology offers defense firms steady public-sector revenue and long-term service contracts.

Threats

• Former NATO Secretary General Rasmussen warned of Russia’s increasing militarization in the Arctic and called for a formal allied strategy to protect territorial and strategic interests. A lack of unified policy and investment, particularly from Denmark and Canada, could leave NATO vulnerable in this critical frontier.
• The ICAO ruling on MH17 not only increases reputational costs for Russia but may also lead to coordinated sanctions or demands for reparations. This could further isolate Russia diplomatically and escalate tensions in other international legal forums.
• The U.S. has discovered that Chinese-made solar inverters contain hidden communication devices that could be remotely disabled. This poses a serious threat to the power grid’s stability, potentially leading to mass blackouts like those recently experienced in Spain.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed at $3,186.00, down $158.00 per ounce, or 4.72%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 8.50%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in off 1.86%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 0.89%.

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the week was platinum, up 1.46%. Vox Royalty announced the acquisition of an immediate, cash-flowing royalty over the producing Kanmantoo copper-gold mine in South Australia from a private company, for total cash consideration of $11.7 million. The transaction is fully financed by an initial drawdown on Vox’s credit facility with the Bank of Montreal. The Kanmantoo mine is a producing underground operation run by ASX-listed Hillgrove Resources, centrally located 55 jilometers from the city of Adelaide. The Kanmantoo royalty is a 2.5% NSR payable monthly, stepping down to 0.50% NSR after reaching cumulative production of 85,000 tonnes of copper. The transaction is expected to close within a week. Monthly royalty revenue will accrue to Vox’s account from May 1, 2025, onwards.
• Hudbay Minerals rose as much as 12% after the mining company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate and maintained its full-year guidance, according to Bloomberg.
• For many, a Costco membership is as good as gold—and for some, a membership means buying gold. Just not too much of it. The retailer’s gold bars have garnered much attention since their June 2023 launch. Now, the gold has proven so popular that the chain recently placed a one-bar limit on purchases, according to Bloomberg.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the week was gold, down 4.72%. Despite the pullback in gold prices—driven by easing tariff tensions between the U.S. and China—the decline almost appeared to present a buying opportunity. The National Bank of Rwanda announced it will begin adding gold to its reserves starting in July, coinciding with the implementation of Basel III. Madagascar also revealed plans to add eight tonnes of gold to its central bank reserves. In a novel approach, the central bank of Uganda announced a policy of working with artisanal miners to boost its gold holdings. Three new central banks announcing plans to accumulate gold during a price pullback? Not a word was said about buying U.S. dollars.

• Fresnillo has apparently sold the majority of its once-significant ownership stake in MAG Silver, potentially leaving Pan American Silver with an unchallenged path in its bid to take control of the strategic silver asset. MAG Silver recently derisked the project, with commercial production scheduled to begin in 2025.
• A bomb blast in jihadist-ridden western Niger has killed at least eight workers at the Samira gold mine in the Tillaberi region, local sources told AFP on Tuesday. Located in the borderlands straddling Niger and its conflict-stricken Sahel neighbors, Mali and Burkina Faso, the Tillaberi region is a hotbed for Islamist militants affiliated with either the Islamic State group (IS) or Al-Qaeda, according to AFP.

Opportunities

• Mid-cap and senior equities have begun to outperform gold, with select emerging companies also trading well on the back of positive exploration and development results, strategic investments, and M&A sentiment. Price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratios for Canaccord’s covered senior and intermediate precious metals stocks now average 0.77x, while their developer/explorer names average just 0.45x. Although 0.77x remains below historical averages, the valuation gap may be encouraging larger producers to use their equity as currency for acquisitions.
• Pan American Silver has announced a definitive agreement to acquire all issued and outstanding shares of MAG Silver, for a total consideration of $2.1 billion. The deal includes 60 million Pan American shares and $500 million in cash, according to Bank of America.
• In short, gold companies appear well-positioned to capture higher margins in 2025, driven by elevated gold prices and expected improvements in operating performance. Valuations still reflect upside potential, as operators are trading below spot gold prices, according to Scotia. Additionally, as cap rates compress amid rising capital costs and with the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5%, real estate investors seeking yield diversification may turn to gold mining equities. Cap rates, in this context, can be directly compared to the free cash flow yields of gold and precious metals mine operators.

Threats

• Nearly every factor that could propel gold higher is currently working against it, which is why further gains may take time to materialize. Bullion has struggled to make headway in May following four months of outsized gains. However, with the positive momentum through April still providing some support, any near-term declines may be shallow, and gold could continue consolidating until new catalysts emerge, according to Bloomberg.
• Lab-grown diamonds lost market share in April. Month-over-month, the import value of lab-grown diamonds rose by 53%, while export value fell by 17%, suggesting a delayed inventory restocking cycle, according to Morgan Stanley.
• Precious metals refiner Heraeus reported that a record 597 GW of global solar capacity was added in 2024, consuming 197.6 million ounces (Moz) of silver. Although solar installation rates increased 33% year-over-year in 2024, silver use per gigawatt declined from 429 kilograms (Koz) to 331 Koz—implying a 23% year-over-year silver thrifting rate. Global solar PV growth is expected to slow to 10% this year, reaching 655 GW of new installations.

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This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product. Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (03/31/2025): 

Air Canada

Boeing

United Airlines

Allegiant Travel

LVMH

Hermes

Richemont

Moncler

Hermes

Tesla

Burberry

L’Oreal

Lockheed Martin

Rheinmetall

Nvidia

Amazon.com Inc.

NVIDIA Corp.

The Boeing Co.

Vox Royalty Corp.

Hudbay Minerals Inc.

MAG Silver Corp.

Rio Tinto

Nucor

BP

Sabre Corp.

Airports of Thailand PCL

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

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The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.