U.S. Ports Face Massive Slowdowns as Trump Tariffs Bite Hard

If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.

All of that is set to change by mid-May if forecasts turn out to be correct.

Logistics firm Flexport reports that liners are slashing their China-to-U.S. carrying capacity at a faster rate than they did at the start of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, data provided by container ship tracker Vizion shows that bookings from China to the U.S. are dropping sharply due to President Donald Trump’s 145% levy on Chinese-imported goods. In the week ended April 21, liner vessels bound for U.S. West Coast ports were carrying only 90,831 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units), which is close to half the volume a year earlier.

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles—the United States’ busiest port—told Bloomberg that “import-export with China is very limited right now.”

Economists Warn of Recession as Job Cuts Accelerate

Below is a near-term timeline of projected events, based on analysis from Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. By mid-May, the first containerships are expected to arrive at West Coast ports since President Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2. As previously noted, these ships will be carrying significantly less cargo than usual, resulting in empty shelves later in the month.

Consequently, layoffs in the trucking and retail sectors are expected by late May or early June as shipping demand collapses. FreightWaves reports that job cuts have already begun, with up to 1,800 freight-related positions eliminated across Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina.

Mr. Slok expects the U.S. economy to fall into recession this summer, and it’s worth mentioning here that real GDP contracted slightly in the first quarter, the first time it’s done so since the pandemic. A decline in Q1 was earlier projected by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, though a contraction of 2.4% was expected.  

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed nearly 1% from its forecast for U.S. growth in 2025. The institution now believes the U.S. economy will advance only 1.8% this year.

Back-to-School and Christmas Inventory Face an Uncertain Future

Even once differences between the U.S. and China are ironed out—whenever that may be—it could take weeks for trade to normalize and goods to be fully restocked. Inventory for back-to-school and holiday sales is at risk, Flexport says.

The Toy Association, a U.S.-based trade group, is warning that Christmas 2025 could be in jeopardy.

Nearly 80% of toys sold in the U.S. are manufactured in China. The Association notes that 96% of American toy companies are small or mid-sized businesses, and about half say they could go out of business in the coming weeks or months without immediate relief from the new tariffs.

Short-Term Pain May Lead to Long-Term Industrial Gains

The president and his advisors say that his protectionist trade policies will spur manufacturers to return to the U.S. His commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, has described a future where U.S. citizens work in factories “for the rest of your life, and your kids work here and your grandkids work here.”

Since Trump took office four months ago, a number of companies have announced plans to invest and expand their presence in the U.S. These include Apple, Honda, IBM, Merck, NVIDIA and Taiwanese semiconductor maker TSMC.

My belief is that if Trump manages to bring these kinds of jobs back to the U.S. permanently, the short-term pain due to tariffs may be worth it in the long run. China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, and since then, the U.S. has seen an overall decline in manufacturing jobs and output. Manufacturing as a percentage of the U.S. economy is now below 10%. That’s down from about a quarter of the economy in the 1950s.

What Should Investors Do?

It may not surprise you to learn that gold glitters as my safe haven of choice for investors concerned about economic and financial turmoil surrounding Trump’s trade policies. I’m clearly not the only one who feels this way.

Inflows into gold-backed ETFs have remained positive in each of the four months of the year so far.

From January 1 to April 30, a net 6 million ounces of gold were added to these ETFs’ holdings.

Meanwhile, the precious metal rallied 25.3% year-to-date through the end of April, marking the best first four months of the year since 2006, when it climbed 26.6%.

I believe there could be further upside potential as long as Trump’s tariffs remain in place, increasing investor demand for stability.

Index Summary

• The major market indices finished up this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.00%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 2.91%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.42%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index gained 3.25% this week.
• The Hang Seng Composite gained 2.43% this week; while Taiwan was up 4.60% and the KOSPI rose 0.53%.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 6 basis points to 4.305%.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was JetBlue, up 22.6%. Sabre Corporation and TPG announced the signing of a definitive agreement under which TPG has agreed to acquire Sabre’s Hospitality Solutions business for $1.1 billion in cash. Sabre’s expected cash proceeds, net of taxes and fees, of $960 million, will be used primarily to pay down debt.

• Rates on the Middle East route from the Middle East to China, the most important route for COSCO Shipping, rebounded by over 60% from a trough of US$34,000 to US$55,000, and recorded 58% growth year-over-year. Goldman believes is being driven by China’s crude restocking on lower-than-average crude inventory and more potential floating storage demand. 

• According to JP Morgan, AF-KLM reported first quarter EBIT at -€328 million, ahead of company consensus -€377 million, driven by better network pricing and costs versus estimates. Full-year guidance points are unchanged despite the uncertainty, and it appears that the lower fuel price is offsetting some softer Europe-U.S. Transatlantic trends.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was Turkish Air, down 8.2%. According to JP Morgan, Volaris reported weak first quarter 2025 results, falling short of both JP Morgan’s estimates and Bloomberg consensus across all financial metrics. In response to ongoing macroeconomic volatility, the company has not only lowered its full-year guidance but also withdrawn its EBITDA margin forecast for the year.
• Hapag-Lloyd customers have cancelled 30% of shipments to the United States from China, explains RBC, a spokesperson for the German container shipping group told Reuters last week. Instead, there has been a “massive increase” in demand for consignments from Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, the spokesperson added.
• Turkish Airlines reported US$44 million net losses in this seasonally low quarter, missing the consensus/JP Morgan estimates of US$20MM/ 48MM net income. The miss was largely driven by worse-than-expected operational performance, as the slow capacity build-up and lower fuel expenses were insufficient to offset the continued ex fuel CASK increase. Management maintained its full-year guidance, but first quarter performance poses downside risks to estimates.

Opportunities

• According to various media reports, United Airlines is exploring a potential partnership with another carrier that would allow it to return to JFK Airport and expand its presence in Florida. The proposed deal could unfold in three phases: a basic commercial alliance focused on route reciprocity, a deeper strategic partnership, and eventually a full acquisition. Both airlines hope to work with the White House to minimize regulatory hurdles and believe there is minimal route overlap, which could ease the approval process.
• Crude tanker demand averaged over 3.7% higher year-over-year in the second half of April 2025, led by tightening Iranian sanctions, and forward demand could get some support from OPEC+ production ramp from May 2025.Tanker rates have been unseasonally strong at +5% quarter-over-quarter so far in the second quarter of the year and forward curves suggest tanker rates tracking around US$10,000 per day, reports Bank of America.
• United Airlines and JetBlue may form a partnership. Industry sources familiar with the matter say that JetBlue and United will not coordinate on schedules and pricing, with the partnership expected to focus on providing customers with greater connectivity and allowing them to earn and burn frequent-flier miles.

Threats

• American Airlines and JetBlue were unable to agree on a construct that was consistent with the travel rewards and co-branded card business objectives that are so important to their strategy and their customers. American filed a lawsuit against JetBlue to recover money owed to American following the unwinding of the Northeast Alliance.
• Roughly 50% of China / U.S. airfreight is e-commerce with a large portion of this activity coming in using the de minimis exemption, reports UBS. The greatest impact would be on global airfreight activity (potentially -15%) and an estimated 30% reduction in airfreight rates on the Transpacific Lane.
• March U.S. airfares were down month-to-date on both a sequential and year-over-year basis. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, airline fares were down 5.3% in March, marking the second month in a row of sequential declines. March airfares also declined year-over-year for the second consecutive month, now down 5.2% year-over-year.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Royal Caribbean, a cruise line company, reported earnings per share of $2.71, surpassing FactSet’s consensus estimate of $2.55. The company also raised its full-year outlook, noting that bookings in April exceeded the levels recorded in the same month last year.
• Ferrari has introduced the 296 Speciale, a high-performance hybrid sports car with a 700-horsepower V6 engine and an additional 180-horsepower electric motor, totaling 880 horsepower. Priced at €407,000 for the coupe and €462,000 for the convertible in Italy.
• Hotel Shilla, a South Korean hotel and retail operator, was the top performer in the S&P Global Luxury sector, gaining 15.5% over the past five days. The stock surged nearly 11% on Monday morning alone, driven by investor optimism over a potential rebound in the duty-free business.

Weaknesses

• The United States economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first contraction since 2022, primarly due to a surge in imports and export tariffs.

• China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in April, down from 50.5 in March, signaling a contraction in factory activity. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which focuses on smaller and private firms, also declined to 50.4 from 51.2. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 50.7.
• Melco International Development Limited, a casino and hotel operator in Hong Kong, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, falling 14.9%. The company’s shares declinced sharply on Monday following a series of analyst downgrades.

Opportunities

• New consumer research from marketing firm Assembly Europe highlights a shift in behavior among Millennials and Gen Z, who are moving away from traditional luxury goods toward experience-driven luxury. For these younger generations, wellness, travel, and immersive activities hold more value than owning high-end items. This trend is fueling rapid growth in experiential luxury—expected to expand at more than twice the rate of traditional luxury goods. Younger consumers now prioritize personal growth, wellness, and adventure over material possessions, creating new opportunities for brands that align with modern, lifestyle-focused values.
• Prada reported 13% growth in the first quarter of the year, despite some other luxury brands posting much weaker results. The Miu Miu brand continues to have a positive effect on group earnings. Miu Miu’s strategic focus on youthful design, regional market expansion, trend leadership, and innovative marketing may continue to benefit the company.
• Manufacturing PMI across Europe is showing signs of improvement, suggesting a potential recovery in the region’s industrial sector. While the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction territory—still below the 50 threshold—it is trending upward. The final reading for April came in at 49.0, up from 48.6 in March, indicating a gradual stabilization in manufacturing activity.

Threats

• LVMH, the French luxury goods conglomerate, has issued a warning about the potential slowdown in its sales growth during the second quarter of the year. The company cited the ongoing impact of tariffs and other global trade disruptions as key factors contributing to the expected decline.
• Major European carmakers like Mercedes, Volkswagen, Porsche, and Volvo reported sharp drops in first-quarter profits. Mercedes saw its first-quarter net profit fall by 43%, Volkswagen’s pre-tax profits dropped by 40%, and Volvo Cars’ operating profit plunged by 59%. Persistent weak demand in Europe and China may further pressure the auto industry.
• Eurozone inflation expectations have risen, with consumers now anticipating a 2.9% increase over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% in March, and 2.5% over the next three years, up from 2.4%. This uptick in expectations, based on a survey of 19,000 consumers across 11 countries, reflects growing concerns about inflationary pressures. Despite these expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently cut interest rates and warned of weak economic growth.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was natural gas, rising 17.44%. Natural gas rebounded sharply on hopes of revived U.S.-China trade talks and renewed investor optimism. European gas futures rose as much as 2.4%, reversing recent losses, while Woodside Energy’s $17.5 billion final investment decision on its Louisiana LNG project reinforced bullish long-term sentiment in global supply. The project, set to begin shipments in 2029, will position Woodside to deliver 24 million tons of LNG annually and operate over 5% of global supply in the 2030s.
• A gauge of strength in China’s copper market has jumped to the highest since late 2023 as buyers scramble to secure supplies. The Yangshan premium — named after a key Shanghai trade terminal — jumped from a low of $35 a ton in late February to $94 on Tuesday, according to data from researcher Shanghai Metals Market.

• Norsk Hydro ASA could cut aluminum production at its North American sites if demand deteriorates because of import tariffs, said Chief Executive Officer Eivind Kallevik. The firm has substantial operations across North America, and can adjust its production strategy, he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. While Norsk Hydro expects minimal direct impact on its business, it could curb output if overall demand starts to deteriorate, Kallevik said.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing commodity for the week was crude oil, dropping 7.06%. Oil extended a decline as the global trade war hurt the outlook for demand, with data indicating strain in the U.S. economy and China pushing back against the Trump administration’s tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
• Redeia Chairwoman Beatriz Corredor defended the grid operator’s handling of Spain’s massive blackout, denying responsibility and attributing the hours-long outage—impacting 45 million people—to likely generation issues still under review. Despite a 5.7% drop in Redeia’s stock and mounting political pressure, she refused to resign, while the government continues its investigation and collects data from utilities, Bloomberg reports.
• Koch Inc., the conglomerate controlled by the billionaire Koch family, is exiting oil and refined products trading globally to pull back from speculation and push into areas with more attractive returns. At the same time, the firm will expand into other markets, including metals, ocean freight, and natural gas related products, according to a memo seen by Bloomberg. 

Opportunities

• RBC’s updated crude oil supply analysis pegs Canada’s oil sands growth (2024-2030) at about 480,000 barrels per day, reaching 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030. Canada’s total oil supply growth of 800,000 barrels/day from 2024-30 to 5.9 million barrels/day.
• Texas’ newly approved $10.1 billion power grid expansion plan for the oil-and-gas-rich Permian Basin will roll out a whole new high-voltage class for the region. It shows the ambition necessary to sustain demand growth while keeping costs down. The new extra high-voltage backbone — at 765 kilovolts from 345 kV earlier — will support more generation capacity, accommodate surging power growth, and reduce grid congestion, according to Bloomberg.
• WoodMac believes the recent supply disruptions from Australia led to a tight met coal market, which supported the met coal price. There is an annualized 15mt of unexpected supply loss from various Australian met coal producers (BMA, Moranbah North, Appin and Oaky North). Supply from Australia is expected to recover over the next few quarters.

Threats

• Australia’s most successful rare earths miner and the key global alternative to China’s stranglehold on supply has savaged the Albanese government’s plan to create a critical minerals stockpile.  Amanda Lacaze, chief executive of Lynas Rare Earths, suggested the government was trying to set itself up as a competitor to her company, with the risk it will undercut Lynas on pricing when it tries to sell products to non-Chinese customers.
• Big Oil has a powerful ally in the White House, but the first quarter of Donald Trump’s presidency was a real test for companies’ plans. The rest of the year could be even tougher. The U.S. leader’s desire for lower crude prices and his disruption of the global economy with trade tariffs is stressing the industry’s finances, calling into question both shareholder returns and drilling plans, according to Bloomberg.
• TotalEnergies has paused a 600-megawatt U.S. solar project due to reduce returns caused by tariffs imposed under President Trump, adding to growing concerns that trade policy is undermining green energy investments. This follows the company’s earlier decision to halt a New York offshore wind project and comes amid broader supply chain disruptions affecting the renewables sector, Bloomberg reports.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the best performer for the week was Virtuais Protocol, rising 99.80%.
• Bitcoin outperformed gold and tech stocks in April, sparking renewed debate over its role as a safe haven amid market turbulence. The cryptocurrency’s 12% gain since April 1 has been driven by investors seeking protection from rising policy uncertainty and institutional instability. According to Bloomberg, experts expect Bitcoin to continue its rally as a hedge against systemic financial risk, with some viewing it as more effective than gold due to its decentralized nature.

• El Salvador’s economy minister confirms that the government is still buying Bitcoin, despite a loan agreement with the IMF that required them to stop accumulating the token. The IMF deal, which provided $1.4 billion in funding, was made in exchange for El Salvador’s commitment to shore up its fiscal accounts and scale back Bitcoin purchases, writes Bloomberg.

Weaknesses

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the worst performer for the week was Ethena, down 15.82%.
• Nike is being hit with a class action lawsuit demanding over $5 million in damages after shutting down its Web3 NFT platform RTFKT in January, reports Bloomberg. A group of RTFKT users filled the lawsuit in the Eastern District of New York on April 25, claiming that they suffered “significant damages” after Nike touted its sneaker-themed NFTs to win investors before pulling the plug on the platform.
• Data compiled by CryptoSlam, an on-chain crypto market data aggregator and a multi-chain NFT collection explorer, shows that the global NFT market has plunged again in trading sales volume. From April 1 to April 30, the global NFT token market recorded a trading sales volume of $389 million, down 39.8% from the past month, according to an article by Inside Bitcoins.

Opportunities

• BlackRock has filed to launch a new share class of its $150 billion money market fund that is registered on a blockchain, utilizing distributed ledger technology (DLT) to record share ownership and streamline fund operations. The DLT share class will be managed by Bank of New York Mellon which will represent ownership of the shares through tokenization, writes Bloomberg. 
• Morgan Stanley is working on a plan to add cryptocurrency trading to its E*TRADE platform with a potential launch next year. The firm is considering partnership with established crypto firms to set up the service which would allow clients to buy and sell popular tokens like Bitcoin and Ether. 
• Bitcoin is approaching $100,000 and reaching its highest level since late February, driven by investors’ renewed appetite for risk across financial markets. Exchange-traded funds tracking Bitcoin and Ether saw significant inflows last week, writes Bloomberg, and demand for upside exposure in the options market has increased with call options with a strike price of $100,000 seeing the most open interest.

Threats

• Seven of the eight biggest publicly traded U.S.-based Bitcoin miners are expected to post a loss in their first-quarter earnings report due to increased competition, tariffs, and declining mining revenue. The miners are struggling despite Bitcoin’s record high price in January, with adjusted net income falling by almost $1.3 billion in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, writes Bloomberg. 
• A former 1^st Million executive, Arley Ray Johnson, lost his appeal to undo convictions for conspiracy, wire fraud, and securities fraud, writes Bloomberg. Johson was accused of defrauding over 1,000 investors between 2017 and 2019 and was sentenced to six-and-a-half years in prison with three months of supervised release and ordered to pay restitution of $15.4 million.
• The U.S Treasury Department has launched a major enforcement move against the Cambodian financial firm Huione Group. The network is accused of crypto laundering proceeds. From online investment scams, cryptocurrency fraud and cyber heists, according to Bloomberg.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• Leonardo DRS delivered strong first quarter 2025 results with revenue rising 16.1% year-over-year to $799 million and earnings per share exceeding expectations. The company’s stock reached a new 52-week high, signaling growing investor confidence and momentum in defense demand.

• Rheinmetall significantly outperformed market expectations in the first quarter of 2025, with sales up 46%, operating profit rising 49%, and defense revenue surging 73%. Its order backlog hit a record €62.6 billion, and the company reaffirmed full-year guidance of 25–30% revenue growth.
• The best performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was Howmet Aerospace Inc., rising 13.49%, after the company raised its full-year EPS and free cash flow guidance following a strong first quarter earnings beat. This was driven by record margins in key segments and expectations to offset tariff impacts by passing costs to customers.

Weaknesses

• SAAB noted that despite increased defense spending, Europe’s rearmament will take significant time due to regulatory and industrial bottlenecks. This delays the tangible benefits for contractors and reveals structural inefficiencies in scaling up production.
• The U.S. withdrawal from the Russia–Ukraine negotiation process signals a diminishing American role in shaping the outcome of the conflict, weakening Western diplomatic leverage and potentially creating a vacuum that adversaries like China or Russia could exploit.
• The worst performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was Loar Holdings, declining 2.36%, after the company filed to sell 70.56 million shares of common stock on behalf of existing holders, raising concerns about potential dilution.

Opportunities

• IBM announced a $150 billion investment in the U.S. over the next five years, with over $30 billion allocated for quantum computer manufacturing and research and development.
• India’s $7.4 billion Rafale Marine deal with France enhances bilateral defense ties outside of NATO and opens the door for future large-scale defense procurements as India shifts away from Russian platforms.
• Turkey’s strategic positioning through its Baykar–Leonardo drone venture with Italy strengthens its leverage in European security affairs, at a time when NATO cohesion is being tested and Europe’s reliance on regional actors is growing.

Threats

• China’s AI ecosystem is rapidly consolidating with the upcoming DeepSeek-R2 model — built on a 1.2 trillion parameter MoE architecture and trained on Huawei’s Ascend 910B chips — expected to outperform GPT-4 in cost-efficiency and legal-financial reasoning. Simultaneously, Xiaomi’s MiMo and Alibaba’s Qwen3 models strengthen China’s strategic position in the AI race, posing a long-term threat to Western leadership in advanced computing.
• Micron Technology is facing a class action lawsuit over alleged misleading statements about product demand, while Intel received a Sell rating from Seaport Research due to its loss of manufacturing edge and lack of a coherent AI strategy.
• Microsoft President Brad Smith warned that the U.S. risks falling behind China in the quantum computing race unless it increases investment, as China commits approximately $15 billion to quantum technologies.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed at $3,240.20, down $58.20 per ounce, or 1.76%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 3.37%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up 0.33%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 0.52%.

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 1.85%. Senators Steve Daines and Tim Sheehy, along with Montana’s congressional delegation, have introduced the bipartisan Stop Russian Market Manipulation Act (S. 808) to ban imports of critical minerals—including palladium, platinum, and copper—from Russia. This legislative move aims to counteract Russia’s market manipulation tactics, which have led to a significant drop in palladium prices and subsequent layoffs at Montana’s Sibanye-Stillwater Mine, the only primary producer of platinum and palladium in the U.S. By promoting domestic mining and reducing reliance on foreign sources, the bill seeks to bolster national security and support American jobs.
• New Gold’s shares surged as much as 19% this week after completion of the $300 million acquisition of the remaining 19.9% free cash flow interest in its New Afton mine, consolidating 100% ownership and eliminating dilution risk. The move came alongside solid first quarter results, including $25 million in free cash flow and strong copper by-product credits, reinforcing how earnings quality and cash flow generation are driving investor confidence. Analysts at RBC and National Bank reaffirmed their “Outperform” ratings, citing the strategic consolidation and improved financial outlook.

• Gold’s record-setting rally appears to be starting a consolidation phase that often happens after big surges. After investors poured cash into gold-backed ETFs this year, there are early signs that they have now built heavy positions and there may be less buying power to drive further moves, according to Bloomberg.

Weaknesses

• Silver was the worst-performing precious metal this week, down 3.43%, as banks including Macquarie and BMO initiated a record 58-million-ounce physical delivery against May Comex futures, reflecting a major unwind of arbitrage positions sparked by earlier tariff fears. With silver given a carve-out from new tariffs, premiums collapsed, triggering a wave of position closures and depressing short-term demand sentiment. The sheer volume of deliveries and softening of U.S. price premiums weighed heavily on market prices, pushing silver lower despite broader metals market resilience.
• China Gold Association notes that “In the first quarter of 2025, China’s gold consumption was 290.492 tons, down 5.96% year-on-year. Among them: 134.531 tons of gold jewelry, down 26.85% year-on-year; gold bars and coins were 138.018 tons, up 29.81% year-on-year; industrial and other gold demand was 17.943 tons, down 3.84% year-on-year.”
• Gold fell further from last week’s record high, as easing trade-war concerns curbed demand for a haven. Bullion slid as much as 1.6% and is down about 6% since topping $3,500 an ounce, when the metal’s rally had taken it into overbought territory. Wild financial market moves stirred by President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements have eased, and investors are watching for any signs of progress in U.S. trade negotiations after Trump suggested another delay to his higher tariffs was unlikely, explains Bloomberg.

Opportunities

• Gold Fields Ltd. reported a surge in profit in 2024 and is now back at the table trying to consolidate the remaining 50% of the Gruyere mine now controlled by Gold Road Resources Ltd. for which Gold Fields has already tried to secure but was rebuffed. Gold Road has now gone into a trading halt, so details of a deal may emerge over the weekend. Last year, Gold Fields acquired control of Osisko Mining in a $1.6 billion deal. Gold Fields has been unashamed to pursue nondilutive growth through acquisitions with cash to reinvest in new capital for growth.
• A year after China and other mainly Asia-based retail investors in ETFs ramped up their gold purchases, buying of U.S. gold ETFs has picked up too. Retail demand can often mark the last stage of a bull trend. Central banks kick-started the gold bull run that started in 2022. DM central banks were behind much of the move, with the value of their gold holdings rising to $1.3 trillion from just under $700 billion since 2022, versus $370 billion for EM central banks, according to Bloomberg.
• Alkane Resources and Mandalay Resources have agreed to combine in a “merger of equals” transaction and have executed a definitive arrangement agreement, reports Bloomberg. Mandalay shareholders will receive 7.875 ordinary shares of Alkane for each ordinary share of Mandalay.

Threats

• The gold rally has outshone other asset classes this month — even drawing some comparisons to bitcoin — as President Donald Trump’s tariff war reshapes the global economic order, pushing investors to look for safety. As bullion hit a record last week, the trading of options on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF surpassed 1.3 million contracts, explains Bloomberg, a level never reached before.
• Barrick Gold’s subcontractors at its Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali are laying off hundreds of employees as a two-year dispute between the company and the Malian government drags on, Reuters reported Monday, citing documents and unnamed sources. In addition, Barrick Gold announced the company would change its name to just Barrick and its new stock symbol would be B and the company would drop GOLD as its stock exchange ticker.
• The World Gold Council noted there was a sharp 19% year-over-year drop in jewelry demand, so total gold demand was up only 1%. The jewelry sector drop was a bit higher than Bank of America anticipated.

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This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product. Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (03/31/2025): 

Sabre Corp

COSCO Shipping

Hapag-Lloyd

United Airlines

JetBlue Airways

American Airlines

Leonardo DRS

Rheinmetall

Apple Inc.

NVIDIA Corp.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.

New Gold

Gold Fields

Osisko Gold

Mandalay Resources

Barrick Gold

TotalEnergies

Ferrari

Royal Caribbean

LVMH

Mercedes

Volkswagen

Prada

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.

The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.