Why Utilities Could Be the Biggest Winners of the AI and Electrification Boom
Investor Alert

Why Utilities Could Be the Biggest Winners of the AI and Electrification Boom

Author: Frank Holmes
Date Posted: August 22, 2025 Read time: 35 min

I’m sure you’ve noticed, but families are paying record or near-record amounts just to keep cool this summer.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, electricity costs have climbed 5.5% in the past 12 months, while natural gas prices have jumped nearly 14%. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) says the average household will spend nearly $800 on summer cooling alone, the highest level in more than a decade.

When costs rise this quickly, people naturally look for someone—or something—to blame. President Donald Trump, never one to mince words, took to Truth Social to point the finger at “STUPID AND UGLY WINDMILLS,” which he claims are driving up energy prices in New Jersey and across the country. Many of you may have seen his posts.

There’s some truth in what the President is saying. Energy is political, and the rush to “green” policies has often been ham-handed and expensive.

But in this case, the facts tell a more complicated story. The truth is that offshore wind projects off the Jersey Shore never even got built. Today, renewables make up only about 8% of New Jersey’s electricity, and wind contributes less than 1%.

That means the culprit behind higher electricity bills isn’t wind turbines. Instead, it’s a surge in demand exacerbated by an aging grid, higher natural gas costs and the billions of dollars utilities are investing to modernize their infrastructure.

America’s Electricity Demand Is Rising at the Fastest Pace in Decades

For nearly two decades, U.S. electricity demand was flat. Between 2005 and 2020, consumption barely budged, thanks to efficiency gains in appliances and slower economic growth. Utilities planned for more of the same.

But the past three years have challenged those assumptions. Nationwide demand is now growing 2% to 3% annually, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In Texas and the Mid-Atlantic, where data centers and manufacturing plants are sprouting like weeds, demand is rising 10% or more per year. This July, America broke its electricity demand record twice in two days, hitting nearly 760 gigawatts at peak—enough to power every home in Texas 60 times over.

Utilities Are Investing Record Sums to Strengthen the Grid

The AI boom is a major driver. Data centers consumed around 180 terawatt-hours of power last year, and that number could double before the decade is out. Add in the electrification of vehicles, reshoring of factories and hotter summers, and demand is rising faster than utilities can keep up.

The Edison Electric Institute (EEI), which represents America’s investor-owned utilities, reports that the industry poured a record $178 billion into the grid last year. That’s the 13th straight year of record spending. Over the next five years, capital expenditures are projected to exceed $1.1 trillion.

Investor-Owned Electric Companies Invested a Record Amount into The Energy Grid in 2024

Global Renewable Generation Has Surged Past 40%

Even as Trump rails against wind and solar, the economics have never looked stronger. Lazard’s latest Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) study shows that, without subsidies, renewables remain the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Utility-scale solar in the U.S. can now deliver electricity at about $0.04 per kilowatt-hour—less than half the cost of new coal or gas peaker plants.

Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) by Source, Low Estimate to High Estimate

Globally, renewables already make up over 40% of generation, with solar the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 20th year in a row. In the U.S., developers plan to add 64 gigawatts of new capacity this year alone—more than half of it solar, with the balance in batteries, wind and natural gas. That’s the largest annual buildout since 2002, when gas was king.

Private equity firms see the writing on the wall. BloombergNEF reports that most of their new energy investments are in renewables, not fossil fuels. Ten years ago, solar power was four times more expensive than fossil fuel. Today, it’s more than 50% cheaper.

Renewables Are Cushioning Consumers from Volatile Gas Prices

This doesn’t mean renewables are flawless. They require transmission buildout, storage and backup. But the claim that “windmills are causing high prices” just doesn’t hold up to the numbers. If anything, renewables are helping cushion the blow from volatile gas markets.

None of this is much comfort when you’re opening a $500 electric bill. But it’s worth taking the long view.

Today, the biggest line item in the American household “energy wallet” isn’t electricity; it’s actually gasoline, which costs families nearly $3,000 per year on average, according to a report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). But as vehicles go electric, those dollars will shift from gas pumps to utility bills.

The EPRI additionally projects that by 2050, household energy spending could fall by more than a third in real terms because we’ll spend less on gasoline and heating oil. In other words, the pain is front-loaded, but the payoff is real.

Ignore the Politics, Follow the Money

So, what’s the takeaway for investors?

Utilities have historically been seen as “boring” dividend payers, but today, I see them becoming beneficiaries of the same AI and industrial growth trends that have propelled chipmakers and robotics firms. Last year, a staggering 94% of utilities raised or reinstated their dividends, with payout ratios higher than any other U.S. sector, according to the EEI.

I say ignore the politics and follow the money. Solar and wind are not only cheaper—they’re where developers, private equity and global capital appear to be placing their bets.

With demand surging, utilities are modernizing. Renewables are the cheapest way forward. And for investors, the electricity transition represents one of the most underappreciated opportunities of the decade.

Index Summary

  • The major market indices finished mixed this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.53%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 0.27%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.58%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index gained 3.30% this week.
  • The Hang Seng Composite gained 0.69% this week; while Taiwan was down 2.34% and the KOSPI fell 1.76%.
  • The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 6 basis points to 4.253%.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

  • The best-performing airline stock for the week was Booking Holdings, up 4.9%. In general, Japan Airlines’ traffic growth continues to outperform ANA Holdings. In the domestic segment, RPK was up 3% for ANA and 7% year-over-year for Japan Airlines. In the international segment, RPK for Japan Airlines was up 10%, and ANA was up 9% year-over-year, according to UBS.
  • The Big Three West Coast Ports reported combined containerized import growth of 24% month-over-month in July, well above the historical July seasonality of 6% month-over-month, following June’s above-seasonal performance. Imports were up 9% year-over-year against a tough July comparison of 43% year-over-year and were 25% above the pre-COVID July 2019 import month, according to Goldman.
  • Air Canada restarted operations on the evening of August 19. Full regular service may take seven to ten days as aircraft and crew are repositioned. CIBS notes the new four-year deal includes a 40% total compensation increase, with ground pay starting at 50% of hourly pay in year one and rising to 70% by year four.

Weaknesses

  • The worst-performing airline stock for the week was Qantas, down 3.3%. According to UBS, low-cost carrier performance at Cathay Pacific remains subdued, with passenger load factor down 15.7 points to 75.7% due to residual impacts from earthquake concerns in Japan.
  • According to Goldman, vessels from China to the USA dropped sequentially by 8% and were down 21% on a year-over-year basis. Container rates fell 8% sequentially and remain under considerable pressure year-over-year, down 70%.
  • China’s domestic demand in August remains subdued, with airline revenues tracking 7% lower year-over-year. Unit revenues are also down 7% year-over-year, with yields dragged down 9%, somewhat offset by record-high seat loads of 88% in August, according to Bank of America.

Opportunities

  • Turkish Airlines will pay Air Europa EUR 275 million, initially structured as a loan that will later be converted into shares—representing between 26% and 27% of the company. Turkish Airlines had become the sole remaining bidder for the Spanish airline.
  • JP Morgan expects freight rates to bottom in FY2026 and recover from FY2027 thanks to (1) the peak of new vessel deliveries, (2) increased effectiveness of service reductions as freight movement normalizes, and (3) the end of the temporary slump in freight movement due to tariffs, followed by a recovery in demand.
  • If demand continues to accelerate through the fall, Bank of America believes airline multiples may have room to expand, as they are highly correlated with revenue momentum and the industry is entering a seasonally stronger period for airline stock returns.
Airlines Are Heading Into a Seasonally Strong Period

Threats

  • According to BMO, for Air Canada, based on expected third-quarter 2025 revenues and the split of fixed and variable expenses, each full day of interruption could cost roughly $40-45 million in EBIT. Assuming capacity is restored in steps within seven days, they estimate the impact of the week to restart operations could be around $140-158 million, bringing the total direct financial impact to $280-315 million.
  • JP Morgan is concerned about ocean oversupply challenges and the eventual return of capacity to the Red Sea. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains elevated at 31%, compared to 20% in June 2024, with 20% expected to be delivered in the next three years, according to Alphaliner.
  • China’s depressed domestic demand has delayed the pricing power inflection for airlines, according to Morgan Stanley. Facing profit pressure in the home market, Chinese airlines are expanding aggressively into international routes, which is not considered sustainable.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

  • Royal Caribbean (RCL) reported strength this quarter with the successful launch of its newest ship, Star of the Seas. The addition expands fleet capacity and underscores strong demand in the cruise market, reinforcing the company’s growth strategy and its ability to attract travelers with innovative, high-end offerings.
  • The EU Manufacturing PMI has crossed above the 50 level for the first time since 2022, signaling strength and growth in the region’s manufacturing sector. This milestone reflects improving business conditions, increased production, and rising demand—highlighting the resilience and recovery of the European economy.
  • The best performer in the S&P Global Luxury Index was Chow Sang Sang Holdings, up 32.84% in Hong Kong trading after issuing a profit alert. The company projected first-half net income from continuing operations to rise as much as 83% year over year, expecting attributable profit of HK$900–920 million compared to HK$502 million a year earlier, driven by strong gold and jewelry sales.

Weaknesses

  • Toll Brothers, a leading U.S. luxury home builder, reported quarterly orders that came in below Wall Street expectations. The company also disclosed a rise in cancellation rates, suggesting that more prospective buyers are backing out of contracts. However, the company reported record home sales revenue of approximately $2.88 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase compared to the prior year.
  • Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims report showed weakness in the labor market, with initial claims rising to 235,000 (above expectations of 225,000) and continuing claims climbing to 1.97 million—the highest since 2021. This suggests layoffs are picking up and hiring is softening.
  • The worst performer in the S&P Global Luxury Index was Cettire, down 8.20%. The online luxury fashion retailer’s shares have plunged about 81% this year, driven by slowing sales growth and shrinking margins. Weaker consumer demand in Australia, increased discounting, and macroeconomic pressures such as tariffs and inflation have significantly impacted its revenue and profitability.

Opportunities

  • Year-to-date, European stocks have outperformed U.S. equities as optimism grows around a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Investors view the prospect of de-escalation as a major relief for Europe’s energy markets and broader economic stability, fueling gains across key sectors.
Europe vs The United States: Year-to-Date Performance
  • LVMH’s Louis Vuitton is set to debut its first-ever makeup collection, La Beauté Louis Vuitton. Led by makeup artist Pat McGrath as creative director, the collection includes 55 lipsticks (in satin and matte finishes), 10 tinted lip balms, and 8 eyeshadow palettes—each housed in luxurious, refillable packaging designed by industrial designer Konstantin Grcic. The line launched in China on August 20, opens for global pre-orders on August 25, and will be available in select stores and online worldwide starting August 29.
  • With over 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported, Q2 earnings are stronger than expected. Blended earnings growth stands at 11.7%, well above the 4.9% forecast at the start of the quarter. About 82% of companies beat EPS estimates, higher than the 77% one-year average. Analysts expect the momentum to continue next quarter: Citi’s EPS upgrade/downgrade index is at its highest level since December 2021, and Bloomberg’s forward guidance tracker is at its second-highest point in nearly four years.

Threats

  • Estée Lauder shares sold off on Wednesday despite the company reporting earnings that met analyst’s expectations and slightly better-than-expected sales results. However, investors were once again spooked by the company issuing softer-than-expected guidance. Management also projected that U.S. tariffs will reduce net revenue by about $100 million over the fiscal year.
  • Another company, Viking Holdings, saw its shares decline on Tuesday after reporting second-quarter profits that met expectations. Once again, results were solid, but shares fell due to the company issuing cautious guidance and warning of higher costs weighing on margins in the coming quarters.
  • Amazon has expanded its Same-Day Delivery service to include fresh, perishable groceries—such as produce, dairy, meat, seafood, and frozen goods—in over 1,000 U.S. cities, with plans to reach more than 2,300 cities by the end of 2025. This offering integrates perishable items into Amazon’s existing logistics network, allowing customers, especially Prime members, to bundle groceries with everyday essentials, electronics, and more in a single cart.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

  • The best-performing commodity for the week was coffee, rising 13.20%. Arabica futures surged to 372.70 cents per pound—their highest level in two months—marking a seventh consecutive gain as traders covered short positions. Weather risks in Brazil, including recent cold snaps followed by rising temperatures, continue to threaten crop quality and fuel bullish momentum.
  • Perma-Pipe’s expertise in specialty piping and leak detection positions it as a key “pick-and-shovel” provider amid the growing demand for data centers. The company’s recent $27 million in project awards—roughly 15% of its total revenue—highlights how grid upgrades and natural gas baseload demand are driving growth in both data center and industrial markets.
Perma-Pipe: Pipes for the Digital Gold Rush
  • Australia’s blackout risk has eased as record renewable and battery additions—4.4 gigawatts in the past year and 5–10 gigawatts expected annually through 2030—are set to offset retiring coal plants. The current pipeline is projected to cover approximately 11 gigawatts of closures by 2035, a sharp improvement from last year’s forecast of significant shortfalls.

Weaknesses

  • Natural gas was the worst-performing commodity of the week, down 7.68%. U.S. LNG exports dipped to 15.71 Bcf/d as flows from terminals like Freeport and Cameron slowed, boosting domestic storage. Meanwhile, European futures rose 8% to €33.55/MWh amid supply risks and fading hopes for a Ukraine peace deal.
  • Oil and gas prices held steady after the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, but a Ukraine ceasefire could push European gas prices down 15–30% to $8–10/mcf. Without a deal, prices may stabilize, though new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil could lift crude, favoring Aker BP over Equinor due to better fundamentals.
  • Peabody’s withdrawal from the $3.8B Anglo met-coal deal—due to disputes over Moranbah North and ongoing shutdowns—derails Anglo’s restructuring. It adds legal risk, weakens coal sale leverage, and undermines the defense used against BHP’s $49B takeover bid.

Opportunities

  • Bolivia’s election outcome, favoring pro-business candidates, could open the door to reforms and increased foreign investment in lithium — the world’s largest undeveloped deposit — potentially accelerating its role in the global market.
  • Louisiana regulators approved Entergy’s plan to build three gas plants and transmission lines to power Meta’s 4 million–square–foot Hyperion AI data center. Meta will fund the project and offset usage with renewables, though critics warn of higher consumer costs and local strain.
  • Glencore will invest over $13 billion in Argentina’s Agua Rica and El Pachón projects, aiming to produce 1 million tons of copper annually within 10–15 years. Initial output is projected at 500,000 tons, potentially generating $20 billion in annual exports.

Threats

  • Mali’s jailing of former Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maiga highlights the junta’s push to consolidate military power, signaling a move away from Western norms and increasing uncertainty for foreign investors, especially in mining.
  • Lithium prices jumped above 80,000 yuan/tonne due to temporary supply issues in China, but analysts expect a pullback as lepidolite mines restart in September. UBS, Macquarie, and SMM forecast year-end prices to stabilize around 70,000–75,000 yuan.
  • BHP faces headwinds as Chinese iron ore demand stagnates while supply from Simandou and Brazil’s Vale increases, risking a glut that could lower prices and squeeze margins, even for low-cost producers.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

  • Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the best performer for the week was OKB, which rose 115.95%.
  • Thailand will relax restrictions on foreign visitors converting digital-asset holdings into baht to fund travel expenses and spending. The “Tourist Digipay” program will begin an 18-month trial period through a regulatory sandbox in the fourth quarter, Bloomberg reports.
  • Exploring public blockchains like Ethereum and Solana signals Europe’s commitment to innovation and interoperability, enabling the digital euro to connect seamlessly with existing crypto infrastructure and global payment systems. This move strengthens Europe’s competitive position against U.S. stablecoins while promoting financial independence and broader adoption.

Weaknesses

  • Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the worst performer for the week was Solana, which still rose a modest 3.26%.
  • Major cryptocurrencies retreated, dragging the market’s total value below $4 trillion after reaching record highs last week. Bitcoin fell as much as 2.5% to about $115,000, while Ether shed more than 5%, dipping below $4,300 on Monday, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin Retreats From Record Territory
  • Bitcoin fell from about $124,000 in July to around $113,200 by August 21, with over $1 billion in leveraged positions liquidated. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw $500 million in net outflows mid-August, and Ethereum funds lost $400 million during the same week.

Opportunities

  • Tether Holdings has appointed Bo Hines, former head of President Trump’s digital assets advisory council, to help lead its U.S. expansion. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino told Bloomberg that Bo’s appointment reflects the company’s commitment to building a strong U.S.-based presence.
  • TeraWulf shares are down 0.74% in premarket trading, trimming earlier losses after Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target on the Bitcoin miner and data center operator to $14 from $11, Bloomberg reports.
  • Wyoming has launched its own stablecoin, the Frontier Stable Token, aimed at enabling instant transactions and lower fees for both consumers and businesses. Backed by U.S. dollars and short-term Treasuries, the token will be available on several blockchains, including Arbitrum, Avalanche, and Ethereum, according to Bloomberg.

Threats

  • Robinhood Derivatives sued gaming officials in Nevada and New Jersey, accusing them of blocking its sports-related event contracts. The lawsuits aim to stop enforcement of state gambling laws, Bloomberg reports.
  • AUSTRAC ordered Binance Australia to appoint an external auditor within 28 days, citing weak AML controls and poor oversight. The move signals tightening regulation of crypto firms in Australia.
  • Institutional crypto adoption faces setbacks from social engineering attacks and pressure on privacy wallets. Breaches like Nobitex and Sensata highlight risks, with experts pointing to MPC custody and AI-based threat detection as key solutions.
7 Airline Investing Terms You need to know - Video

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

  • RTX is strengthening its balance sheet and cash flow while managing a $1.1–1.3 billion impact in 2025 from the powder metal issue. Moody’s and S&P have revised their outlooks to stable, though some of RTX’s $3+ billion in long-term bonds are still trading wider than those of high-BBB peers. Meanwhile, the company secured a $259 million U.S. Navy contract to develop the SM-2 Block IIICU missile.
RTX Corp Is Strengthening Its Balanced Sheet
  • Lockheed Martin secured a $4.25 billion U.S. Army contract to scale GMLRS rocket production from 10,000 to 14,000 annually, reinforcing its role as a critical supplier in missile stockpile replenishment.
  • The best performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was Astronics Corp, up 8.83%, after posting record aerospace sales, raising guidance and breaking out technically – with institutional buying further fueling momentum.

Weaknesses

  • Nvidia faces regulatory headwinds in China, halting H20 chip production while simultaneously raising prices to offset Trump’s new 15% tariff, creating uncertainty for margins and regional demand.
  • The FBI reported that the Russian group Static Tundra, linked to the FSB, exploited a seven-year-old Cisco flaw, CVE-2018-0171, in outdated networking devices for cyber espionage, targeting sectors such as telecommunications and manufacturing across multiple continents.
  • The worst performing stock in the XAR ETF this week was BWX Technologies, down 5.41% this week as nuclear stocks pulled back from recent highs, with concerns over delayed SMR revenues and insider selling adding pressure. 

Opportunities

  • Google boosted its stake in TeraWulf to about 14% with a $3.2 billion financing backstop as Fluidstack expands its AI data center campus, sending WULF shares surging and analysts hiking price targets to $14.
  • SoftBank is doubling down on chips and AI, investing $2 billion in Intel, advancing its $500 billion Stargate data-center project with OpenAI and Oracle (including a new Foxconn plant in Ohio), leading a $40 billion OpenAI funding round, acquiring Ampere and Graphcore, holding a majority stake in Arm, rebuilding its Nvidia position, and backing Perplexity AI—betting big across the AI and semiconductor stack.
  • AeroVironment is set to acquire 50% of Controp, a subsidiary of Rafael, in a deal valuing Controp at over $600 million. The transaction, facilitated by Rothschild & Co., aims to enhance operational flexibility by removing state-owned constraints.

Threats

  • Russian hacker group KillNet claimed to have breached Ukraine’s military database and exposed alleged losses of 1.7 million soldiers, a figure Ukraine has dismissed as false and vastly inflated.
  • Iran’s vice president warned that the June war with Israel was only a pause and that fighting could erupt again at any time, as both sides remain on edge over nuclear sites, sanctions threats, and the absence of any formal ceasefire.
  • Israel has launched a new ground offensive in Gaza City under “Gideon’s Chariots II,” aiming to destroy Hamas leadership, free hostages, and establish full control over the area. The assault has triggered a worsening humanitarian crisis, with famine officially declared and rising civilian casualties amid international criticism.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed at $3,416.70, up $34.10 per ounce, or 1.01%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week higher by 2.64%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up 1.41%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar fell 0.11%.

Strengths

  • The best-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 2.41%. Michael Ball, technical analyst at Bloomberg, notes that the gold-silver ratio is at a technical crossroads, caught between gold’s consolidation and silver’s relative strength. While gold has stalled in the $3,200–$3,450 range—supported by steady ETF flows and central bank holdings—silver’s outperformance is driven by cyclical and industrial demand, positioning it as a leveraged play on global growth.
  • Gold ETF holdings are up 289 tons year-to-date (+11% since end-2024), on pace for the strongest year since 2020 after four years of declines. Silver ETF holdings are also up 2,362 tons YTD (+11%), showing similar momentum. Gold Fields’ first-half profit more than doubled, driven by a 25% rise in production and higher gold prices. The company closed $4 billion in acquisitions over the past year, with more accretive consolidation likely.
  • Abaxx launched its physically deliverable Gold Singapore Futures (GKS) contract on June 12, 2025, with daily volumes rising from 200 lots in June to consistently over 1,000 lots in August. The company also launched Abaxx Spot, a dedicated platform for secure kilobar gold trading in Singapore, expanding access to physically allocated gold.
Golden Curve Rising: Abaxx Turns Up The HEat

Weaknesses

  • Gold was the worst-performing precious metal of the week, though still up 1.01%. A MarketWatch analysis highlights an $863 billion gap between the U.S. government’s official gold valuation ($42.22/oz) and market prices near $3,400, fueling speculation about revaluation or even a strategic Bitcoin reserve. While gold was set for a second weekly loss, it rallied nearly 1% Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible September rate cut, underscoring how shifting monetary policy could lift bullion further.
  • Since peaking at $3,500.10/oz in April 2025, gold has traded sideways within a narrowing range, forming a triangle pattern. Prices are now over halfway through the pattern, which typically breaks 61.8–74.6% of the way through. Due to the pattern’s narrowness and the number of converging swings, Bank of America suggests a breakout could be imminent.
  • Canaccord reports Vault Minerals’ FY25 post-tax profit of A$237 million missed consensus estimates (A$266 million), largely due to a A$43 million income tax expense and slightly higher depreciation.

Opportunities

  • South Africa is set to open its first new underground gold mine in 15 years—an increasingly rare event in a country that was once the world’s top gold producer. West Wits Mining Ltd. plans to begin production next year at Qala Shallows, located on the western edge of Johannesburg, the city founded during the gold rush following the 1880s discovery of the Witwatersrand reef, according to Bloomberg.
  • According to UBS, the DCF-implied valuation discount for South African gold miners has narrowed by 5%, with equities now pricing in an 11% discount to spot gold, down from 16%. AngloGold remains the cheapest, discounting a gold price of $3,000/oz, while Harmony appears most expensive, at $3,300/oz. Based on 12-month forward EV/EBITDA multiples, the sector overall is pricing in gold at around $3,100/oz versus the current spot price of $3,500.
  • RBC reports that with Artemis delivering early-stage production at Blackwater as planned, continued ramp-up and strong margins could drive outperformance. A decision on optimizing or expanding the plant by year-end may act as a value-accretive catalyst.

Threats

  • Bank of America forecasts a significant palladium oversupply for the next several years. While some minor mine supply cuts have occurred, they’re not enough to restore market balance. Northam management also expressed concern, calling palladium their “least favorite” metal due to pressure from Chinese EV adoption.
  • Gold bulls may be disappointed as the metal has stalled since its April high above $3,500 an ounce, despite ongoing price target upgrades from banks. Hedge funds trimmed long positions in gold and silver last week, and options flows remain cautious, with defensive skew and low volatility, according to Bloomberg.
  • UBS is becoming more selective on gold miners after strong outperformance. They favor Barrick, Endeavour, Kinross, and Franco-Nevada, while maintaining Neutral ratings on Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Fresnillo.

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This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product. Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (06/30/2025): 

Japan Airlines

ANA Holdings

Air Canada

Cathay Pacific

Royal Caribbean

Toll Brothers

LVMH Louis Vuitton

Estee Lauder

Viking Holdings

Nvidia

RTX

Perma-Pipe International Holdings

Freeport McMoRan

Anglogold Ashanti

Glencore PLC

BHP Group Ltd.

Sibanye Stillwater

Gold Fields

Vault Minerals

AngloGold Ashanti

Harmony Gold Mines

Barrick Gold

Endeavour

Kinross Gold Corp

Franco-Nevada

Agnico Eagle

Fresnillo

Wheaton Precious Metals

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.

The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.

The NYSE Arca Airline Index tracks the performance of major U.S. and international passenger airline stocks listed on the NYSE, NYSE Arca, and NASDAQ.

The Europe STOXX 600 Index is a broad, pan-European stock index that represents 600 large, mid, and small-cap companies across 17 European countries.