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Please note: The Frank Talk articles listed below contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate fund performance page.

Frank Talk Turns Eleven Years Old!
April 24, 2018

Eleven years ago, U.S. Global Investors launched the Frank Talk blog as a way to share my experiences traveling the world and the investment insights I pick up along the way. After thousands of blog posts, we continue to cover the latest market news and educate investors. We’re one of the few sources online today that strives to take a balanced approach on gold investing, emerging markets and a handful of other topics.

One of our values at U.S. Global is having a “curiosity to learn and improve” and I feel starting a blog was a great tool to help our shareholders understand the nuances of global investing. In fact, my CEO blog was one of the first produced by a mutual fund company. Since the first Frank Talk blog post was published in 2007, it’s now widely read around the world and regularly appears on a number of financial news outlets. Over the years the Frank Talk blog and our other educational content have won many STAR Awards from the Mutual Fund Education Alliance (MFEA).

In the eleventh year of Frank Talk, we decided to challenge ourselves and develop a supplemental video series for our readers. This video series, appropriately named Frank Talk Live, allows me to dig even deeper into the material I write about and connect with viewers on a personal level. In this digital age, we believe it’s important to educate our viewers using a variety of mediums, such as video.

In case you haven’t seen a Frank Talk Live yet, I’d like to share with you the most viewed ones so far:

  • Understated Inflation Could Be Good for Gold – At the beginning of the year I like to give my price forecast for gold, in addition to updating it throughout the rest of the year. In this video I talk about gold and its relationship with inflation.
  • Electric Car Demand Set to Drive Copper Sky High – My good friend Robert Friedland, founder and CEO of Ivanhoe Mines, visited the U.S. Global offices and I shared with viewers his insights on the copper market and how electric car demand might send copper prices soaring.
  • Chinese New Year and Gold’s Love Trade – I like to talk about Chinese New Year every year, since it’s a big contributor to gold’s seasonal trading patterns, which I call the Love Trade.

I invite you to subscribe to our YouTube page to receive notifications when a new Frank Talk Live is released.

Thank you to my loyal Frank Talk subscribers, and welcome to those of you who are new. If there is ever a topic you’re curious to learn more about, please drop a note to editor@usfunds.com.

Happy Investing!

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the links above, you may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more of U.S. Global Investors Funds as of 3/31/2018: Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.

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These Two Funds Offer an Attractive Risk/Reward Profile
April 20, 2018

These Two Funds Offer an Attractive Risk/Reward Profile

Two of our mutual funds, the China Region Fund (USCOX) and Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), offered investors very attractive risk/reward profiles compared to their respective peer groups for the 12-month period ended March 31. I believe this is the result of our unique, actively-managed quant models and nimbleness to act based on market volatility, money flows and other factors.

Look at the scatterplot graph below. The y-axis measures the 12-month return, while the x-axis measures monthly standard deviation, or, more generally, risk. Ideally, for any given time period, you want your investment to appear in the upper-left quadrant, as this indicates you’ve received higher returns for a relatively low amount of risk.

For the 12-month period ended March 31, the China Region Fund (USCOX) delivered a noteworthy return of 37.06 percent, compared to its benchmark, the Hang Seng Composite Index, which rose 24.40 percent. Its return was also higher than the average for the China peer group. At the same time, USCOX had relatively lower risk than many of its peers, with a monthly standard deviation of between 3 and 4 percent.

Risk return analysis for the China region fund USCOX
click to enlarge

In USCOX we maintain overweight positions in consumer discretionary and technology. As we see it, these sectors are where the growth is, driven by innovative tech firms, from Sunny Optical to Tencent; automakers such as Geely Automotive; and casino names like Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau.

Explore the China Region Fund (USCOX) by clicking here!

A Look at the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX)

Our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) similarly had an attractive risk/reward profile for the one-year period ended in March. The fund returned 11 percent, well above many of its peers in energy and materials, and it was less risky than the group’s average.

Risk return analysis for the Global Resources fund PSPFX
click to enlarge

For PSPFX, our rigorous quant research process begins with 1,600 possible names in the energy and materials space. We immediately whittle this number down to around 700 or 800 after screening for net debt-to-enterprise value—we don’t want overly-leveraged companies—as well as liquidity and free cash flow growth.

Next, we look at enterprise value-to-EBITDA—or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—meaning we seek companies that offer greater value in their sector relative to their peers. In other words, we compare oil producers to oil producers, not oil producers to, say, logging and timber companies.

Finally, we screen for return on invested capital (ROIC), one of the most widely-used factors, and free cash flow yield. We like to invest in companies that we anticipate will reward us.

This gives us the 50 or so names that eventually make it into PSPFX. It’s a process that we’re committed to and that we believe delivers highly competitive results.

Commodities on Sale

Another reason investors might want to consider commodities is that they’ve rarely been this cheap relative to stocks. The equities-to-commodities ratio, as measured by the S&P 500 Index and the S&P GSCI Index, is at its lowest level in nearly 50 years. This means that materials could be ripe for mean reversion, representing one of the most attractive entry points in recent memory.

Commodities at most undervalued level in decades
click to enlarge

Commodities are also responding to geopolitical jitters. With oil, aluminum and other materials making multiyear highs because of Russian sanctions and military action in Syria, Goldman Sachs recently issued a bullish statement, writing that “the strategic case for owning commodities has rarely been stronger.”

Of course, this is only one investment bank’s opinion, and there’s no guarantee that past events will end up being repeated. It’s possible a full recovery is still months or even years away. Proceed with caution, but I think it’s worth your time to at least consider adding to your commodities exposure.

Interested in gaining exposure to commodities and raw materials? Visit the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) page!

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, Distributor. U.S. Global Investors is the investment adviser.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Total Annualized Returns as of 3/31/2018:

Fund One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense
China Region Fund 37.06% 8.99% 1.80% 2.76%
Hang Seng Composite Index 24.40% 6.00% 2.48% n/a
Global Resources Fund 11.00% -8.30% -5.91% 1.85%

The Adviser of the China Region Fund has voluntarily limited total fund operating expenses (exclusive of acquired fund fees and expenses of 0.02%, extraordinary expenses, taxes, brokerage commissions and interest, and advisory fee performance adjustments) to not exceed 2.55%. With the voluntary expense waiver amount of 0.38%, total annual expenses after reimbursement were 2.36%. U.S. Global Investors, Inc. can modify or terminate the voluntary limit at any time, which may lower a fund’s yield or return. Expense ratio as stated in the most recent prospectus. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in specific industries, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the stocks of 500 large-cap U.S. companies. It represents the stock market's performance by reporting the risks and returns of the biggest companies. The S&P GSCI (formerly the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. The Hang Seng Composite Index is a stock market index of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong that has components of 200 companies.

Debt-to-enterprise value measures how much debt a company carries relative to its total value. Free cash flow (FCF) is a measure of a company's financial performance, calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. FCF represents the cash that a company is able to generate after spending the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. Enterprise value-to-EBITDA, or EV/EDITDA, equals a company's enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization. Return on invested capital(ROIC) is a profitability ratio that measures the return an investment generates for those who have provided capital. ROIC tells us how good a company is at turning capital into profits. Free cash flow yield is an overall return evaluation ratio of a stock, which standardizes the free cash flow per share a company is expected to earn against its market price per share. The ratio is calculated by taking the free cash flow per share divided by the share price.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the China Region Fund and Global Resources Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 3/31/2018: Sunny Optical Technology Group Co. Ltd. 10.62% in China Region Fund, 0.00% in Global Resources Fund; Tencent Holdings Ltd. 10.41% in China Region Fund, 0.00% in Global Resources Fund; Geely Automotive Holdings Ltd. 9.84% in China Region Fund, 0.00% in Global Resources Fund; Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. 2.67% in China Region Fund, 0.00% in Global Resources Fund; Wynn Macau Ltd. 2.05% in China Region Fund, 0.00% in Global Resources Fund.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate for every investor.

 

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U.S. Energy Is Breaking All Kinds of Records — Are You Participating?
April 2, 2018

american energy dominance

If you recall, during the second presidential debate in October 2016, Hillary Clinton falsely claimed that the U.S. is “now, for the first time ever, energy independent.” Many were quick to point out the inaccuracies. For one, the U.S. has been a net energy exporter before, most recently in the 1950s. And two, America isn’t currently energy independent.

But that could change very soon. As I told you in February, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the U.S. will become a net exporter of energy by as early as 2022, and the agency recently shared fresh data that supports the narrative that America is on the cusp of taking the throne as the world’s leading energy powerhouse.

The Quest for American Energy Dominance

According to the EIA, U.S. net energy imports in 2017 fell to their lowest levels since 1982. From its high in 2007 of 34.7 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), the difference between exports and imports has fallen steadily to 7.32 Btu, slightly above the 7.25 Btu in 1982.

US net energy imports in 2017 fell to lowest levels since 1982
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The decline last year was mainly due to record exports of crude oil and petroleum products, made possible since Congress lifted the U.S. oil export ban in December 2015.

And for the first time since 1957, the U.S. exported more liquefied natural gas (LNG) than it imported. Between 2016 and 2017, natural gas exports quadrupled from 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to 1.94 Bcf/d. The EIA attributes this acceleration to the expansion of export facilities in Louisiana and Maryland, with six additional ones currently under construction, according to Energy Secretary Rick Perry. As a result, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects the U.S. will become the world’s leading LNG exporter by the mid-2020s.

All of this follows news that the U.S. is now the world’s number two crude oil producer. Late last year, U.S. output exceeded 10 million barrels a day for the first time since 1970, thanks largely to the surge in fracking and horizontal drilling activity. This helped push the country ahead of OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, and, by 2019, it could surpass Russia to become the largest producer in the world.

US now the number two oil producer expected to overtake russia by 2019
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Oil Majors Reward Shareholders

Some resource investors might worry that all this extra supply could depress prices and hurt profits. That’s a valid concern, but it’s worth pointing out that since its recent low of $26 a barrel in February 2016, the oil price has surged nearly 150 percent—all while the number of active wells in North America has risen.

It doesn’t hurt, of course, that demand for petroleum products is just as strong as it’s ever been right now. According to the latest monthly report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. demand in February reached its highest level since 2007. This was only the third February ever, in fact, that gasoline demand exceeded 9 million barrels a day, reflecting strenthening consumer sentiment and economic growth.    

And as I shared with you last month, major explorers and producers’s profits are now in line with what they were when oil was trading for $100 a barrel and more.

big oil is generating as much profit at 60 dollar oil as it was at 100 dollar
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According to Bloomberg, the majors are now “prioritizing investors over investments, channeling the extra cash that comes from $60 crude into share buybacks and higher dividends.”

I should add that, besides offering better opportunities for investors, energy independence helps make the U.S., its allies and, indeed, the whole world more secure.

Learn more about investment opportunities in oil and other natural resources by clicking here!

China Launches Oil Futures Contract, OPEC and Russia Enter Historic Pact

Other important developments are happening around the world right now that are already disrupting the global energy space.

The most notable is that China last Monday launched its own crude oil futures contract. Priced in yuan and traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, it’s the first such Asian benchmark for oil deals.

How the stars could be aligned for 1500 gold

As the world’s largest consumer of crude, China seeks to gain some pricing power in the trillions of dollars of oil that are traded every year around the world. Back in April 2016, the country introduced its own yuan-denominated fix price for gold—which it also consumes more of than any other country. The Shanghai oil futures contract is similarly designed to wrest some control over pricing from the main benchmarks in New York and London—West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent—and to promote the use of the yuan, also known as the renminbi.

Raising the yuan’s profile and transforming it into a leading global currency has been among Chinese president Xi Jinping’s key endeavors. He scored a big win in 2015, if you recall, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to include it in its basket of reserve currencies, placing the yuan in the same league as the U.S. dollar, British pound, Japanese yen and euro.

But as you can see below, the yuan has a long way to go in its quest to challenge other currencies. As of last year, the U.S. dollar accounted for 63.5 percent of countries’ allocated reserve currencies, compared to the yuan, which had only a 1.12 percent share. Shanghai oil futures could possibly help improve that allocation.

chinese huan has a long way to go as a reserve currency
click to enlarge

The contract opened strong last Monday but has since fallen below WTI prices as speculators placed a series of bearish bets.

Click here to learn more about China and surrounding markets!

In other news, OPEC and Russia are reportedly hashing out the details on a historic alliance that would extend oil production curbs for a number of years, according to a Reuters exclusive. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, told the agency that Riyadh and Moscow were “working to shift from a year-to-year agreement to a 10- to 20-year agreement.”

Although not a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia has often worked alongside the cartel to limit production in an effort to boost prices. A 10- to 20-year deal, however, would be unprecedented.

Oil price weakness has hurt both Russia and Saudi Arabia, as crude exports account for an oversize percentage of their total revenue. And as I’ve shared with you before, Saudi Arabia also seeks higher prices to support a possible initial public offering (IPO) this year of Saudi Aramco, the largest energy company in the world by far.

Looking for more insight on the global energy sector? Subscribe to our award-winning Investor Alert newsletter, delivered every Friday after the markets close!

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

There is no guarantee that the issuers of any securities will declare dividends in the future or that, if declared, will remain at current levels or increase over time.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 12/31/2017: Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp.

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5 Things Investors Should Know About China this New Year
February 20, 2018

Chinese New Year 2018 Earth dog

Last Friday marked the first day of the Chinese Lunar New Year, also known as the Spring Festival, China’s most important holiday. The fire rooster struts off-stage, clearing the way for the loyal earth dog. According to CLSA’s tongue-in-cheek Feng Shui Index, health care, consumer and paper products are favored to outperform early this year, followed by internet, utilities and tech leading into the summer.

Around this time I always pay close attention to transportation and industrials. “Chunyun,” which translates to “Spring Festival Transportation,” is a 40-day travel season that’s known as the world’s largest human migration. This year, as many as 390 million Chinese travelers—more people than live in the U.S. and Canada combined—are forecast to put roads, highways, passenger trains and airlines through their paces as they visit families, go on vacation and travel abroad. Airlines alone are expected to serve 65 million passengers, a 10 percent increase from last year.

Record number of Chinese New Year travelers to take to the skies in 2018
click to enlarge

As the size of China’s middle class continues to surge and incomes rise, this upward trend in flight demand and overall consumer spending appears sustainable, creating some very attractive investment opportunities.

Below are five additional things I think investors should know about China and the surrounding region in the New Year.

1. China is a veritable wealth factory.

China surpasses the US as the worlds largest crude oil importer 2017

Speaking of disposable income: Last year, the China region added more new billionaires than the U.S. for the first time ever. UBS and PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PwC) annual report on billionaires found that the total number of Asian billionaires rose to 637, followed by the U.S. (563) and Europe (342). China alone minted 67 new billionaires in 2017 and is now home to nearly 320.

Combine this with a surging middle class—already the largest in the world—and the consequences on consumption could be huge.

As I’ve shared with you before, China is still in the early stages transitioning from a manufacturing to a consumption and services-based economy. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), Chinese household income is projected to grow around 5 percent annually between now and 2027, elevating approximately 180 million people into the middle-income bracket. This will contribute to greater demand for everything from appliances to smartphones to automobiles to luxury goods.

Gold jewelry demand, for instance, grew 10.35 percent year-over-year in 2017. And it wasn’t just the super wealthy making purchases, the China Gold Association reported. Less affluent consumers also had an appetite, helping China maintain its ranking as the world’s largest buyer of gold for the fifth straight year.

Heavier spending is also showing up in Macau casinos, which saw revenues jump an incredible 36.4 percent year-over-year in January. This was the gaming territory’s 18th straight positive month and its largest such increase in nearly four years, suggesting Macau is well on its road to recovery after Chinese president Xi Jinping’s anticorruption crackdown.

Macau casinos could continue to regain momentum in 2018 after three year slump
click to enlarge

This month, Macau welcomed its newest casino resort, the $3.4 billion MGM Cotai, increasing MGM’s gaming table count in the territory nearly 30 percent to 552, according to Reuters.

2. But don’t count Chinese manufacturing out just yet.

Despite China’s de-emphasis on manufacturing as its main growth engine, a lot of value still remains. Chinese manufacturing began the year strong, expanding at a healthy clip with a purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reading of 51.3. This was down slightly from December but in-line with the previous January.

Chinas manufacturing sector still expanding at a strong clip
click to enlarge

Expectations are especially high for electric vehicle (EV) production and sales, as the Chinese government sweetened the incentive for families to trade in their gas-powered automobile for one that runs on a battery-powered electric motor. Those with a range greater than 400 kilometers (249 miles) on a single charge now come with a 50,000 yuan ($7,881) cashback incentive, up from 44,000 yuan ($6,937) last year, according to Bloomberg. The government also increased the number of kilometers a car must be able to travel on a single charge to qualify for the incentive, from 100 last year to 150.

“Sales volumes for new-energy vehicles exceeded 700,000 last year, and this number is further expected to increase to more than 2 million in 2020, and to more than 5 million in 2025,” Kevin Li, a senior analyst with Strategy Analytics, told CNBC early this week.

Several Hong Kong-listed carmakers and their suppliers had a fabulous 2017. Guangzhou ended the year up 97 percent while Geely gained more than 265 percent. The government’s policy change appears to be another tailwind.

Robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) is another space that China is expected to dominate. According to UBS, China overtook the U.S. and Japan in 2016 in installed robotics systems, and by 2020 it’s set to manufacture up to 40 percent of all robots globally. By 2030, its AI industry could be worth as much as $150 billion.

3. China has an insatiable appetite for energy, both clean and traditional.

As its generous incentive for EVs suggests, the Chinese government is serious about combating air pollution, especially in highly populated metro areas. As such, the country imported a record amount of natural gas, which burns more cleanly than coal. According to customs data, China consumed 68.57 million metric tons of the fossil fuel in 2017, up 27 percent from the previous year.

Chinas manufacturing sector still expanding at a strong clip
click to enlarge

That doesn’t mean the Asian giant is done entirely with other fossil fuels, though. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last week that China imported more crude oil than the U.S. for the first time in 2017. It brought in an average 8.4 million barrels per day last year, compared to 7.9 million barrels per day for the U.S.

China surpasses the US as the worlds largest crude oil importer 2017
click to enlarge

As I shared with you last week, China is now the largest consumer of U.S. crude oil other than Canada, according to Reuters.

4. Nearly 40 percent of the world’s unicorns call China home.

As you probably know, a “unicorn” is a company valued at more than $1 billion that hasn’t been listed yet. Think Uber, Dropbox, Airbnb and more.

A September report by Deloitte and China Venture found that China is home to 98 of the world’s 252 unicorns, accounting for 38.9 percent of the total number. Only the U.S. has more at 106 unicorns, or 42.1 percent.

Like U.S. unicorns, the ones in China come mostly from information technology, including online payment services and e-commerce.

Among the largest is smartphone-maker Xiaomi, which is valued at a whopping $100 billion. It, and several others, are highly anticipated to go public this year, with a showdown brewing between Hong Kong and New York.

According to CNBC, close to 140 Chinese companies raised $32.2 billion in initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2017, a figure that could be exceeded this year if Xiaomi, Uber-competitor Didi Chuxing, content platform ByteDance and more decide to list.

5. China hosts the most and biggest bitcoin mining facilities. But for how long?

Another Chinese unicorn that could be eyeing a possible IPO soon is Bitmain, the world’s largest manufacturer of bitcoin mining rigs. It also operates Antpool, a cryptocurrency “mining pool” that generates digital coins using the pooled resources of a number of different miners. The Beijing-based Bitmain, whose valuation is reportedly “in the billions,” claims to have built around 70 percent of all mining rigs in operation around the world today.

Many Chinese bitcoin miners are looking at Canada rich in energy and cool in climate as a potential new site for their operations

It’s little wonder, then, that three-quarters of bitcoins globally are mined in China, according to a 2017 University of Cambridge study. Mining concentration is especially high in the southwestern province of Sichuan, where miners have managed to strike deals with hydroelectric power companies.

“China is the country that hosts most mining facilities and uses the highest power consumption of all countries for cryptocurrency mining,” the study’s authors write.

That could soon change, however. The Chinese government has already clamped down on bitcoin exchanges and banned initial coin offerings (ICOs), and now it seeks to shutter the mines themselves. Last month, a governmental taskforce on internet finance asked local authorities to assist in shutting down operations that produce cryptocurrencies.

At the moment, there doesn’t seem to be a deadline, but miners are already scouting the world for new mining locations. Bitmain, which also has a presence in Switzerland, is looking at potential sites in energy-rich Quebec, according to Reuters, and other miners could be following suit.

I want to wish all readers a happy Lunar New Year! May the year of the earth dog bring you joy, health and prosperity! Check out our infographic, “5 Things to Know About the Chinese New Year.”

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 12/31/2017: Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.

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Another Positive Year Ahead for Gold, Says the World Gold Council
January 24, 2018

Another Positive Year Ahead for Gold, Says the World Gold Council

In a year when the S&P 500 hit all-time highs, gold also held strong, finishing 2017 up 13.5 percent, according to the World Gold Council. Gold’s annual gain was the largest since 2010, outperforming all major asset classes other than stocks. Contributing to this gain was a weaker U.S. dollar, stock indices hitting new highs and geopolitical instability, all of which fueled uncertainty. Investors continued to add gold to their portfolios to manage risk exposure, with gold-backed ETFs seeing $8.2 billion of inflows last year.

gold outperformed major asset classes in 2017
click to enlarge

The World Gold Council (WGC) recently released its annual outlook on the yellow metal identifying four key market trends it believes will support positive gold performance in 2018, and we agree. Below I summarize the report for you and add some of my own thoughts on gold’s trajectory.

Key Trends Influencing Gold in 2018

1. A year of synchronized global economic growth
Economies are on the rise with global growth increasing in 2017 and on track to continue the trend this year. China and India, two of the world’s largest consumers of gold, will see their economies and incomes grow due to the implementation of new economic policies. WGC research shows that as incomes rise, the demand for gold jewelry and gold-containing technology tends to rise as well. Investment and consumer demand for the yellow metal results in a lower correlation to other mainstream financial assets, such as stocks, making it an effective portfolio diversifier.

there's a positive relationship between gold demand and wealth
click to enlarge

2. Shrinking balance sheets and rising interest rates
Expectations are for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year and shrink its balance sheet by allowing $50 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to mature each month. Over the past decade, central banks pumped trillions into the global economy and cut interest rates, allowing asset values to break records and market volatility to reach record lows.

With these banks reining in expansionary policies in 2018 and hiking rates as global debt increases, market volatility may go up again, making gold a more attractive asset. According to WGC research, when real rates are between zero and 4 percent, gold’s returns are positive and its volatility and correlation with other mainstream financial assets are below long-run averages.

3. Frothy asset prices
As the WGC points out, not only did asset prices hit multi-year highs around the world in 2017, but the S&P is still sitting at an all-time high. This rosy environment saw investors seeking out additional risks, hoping for additional returns. A continued search for yield has “fueled rampant asset price growth elsewhere,” the report explains. This includes exposure to lower quality companies in the credit markets as well as investments in China.

Although the bull market could very well continue throughout 2018, some analysts and investors alike are understandably cautious about just how much risk exposure to continue taking on. That’s where gold comes in. As you can see in the chart below, the price of the yellow metal tends to increase during periods of systemic risk. Should global financial markets correct, investors could benefit from having an exposure to gold in their portfolio. Historically, gold has reduced losses during periods of distress or instability in the markets.

the gold price tends to increase in periods of systematic risk
click to enlarge

4. Greater market transparency, efficiency, and access
Financial markets have become more transparent and efficient over the past decade, with new products broadening access for all kinds of investors. Last year the London Bullion Market Association launched a trade-data reporting initiative and the London Metal Exchange launched a suite of exchange-traded contracts intending to improve price transparency, according to the WGC.

In fact, momentum is building in India to develop a national spot exchange to make the market less complicated and fragmented. In addition, more progress in gold investing might be seen in Russia this year with the current 18 percent VAT on gold bars possibly being lifted. More easily accessible gold-backed investment vehicles should lead to more gold investors and transactions worldwide.

Now Could Be a Good Time to Add Gold to Your Portfolio

World Gold Council’s Chief Market Strategist, John Reade, said in his 2018 outlook for gold that, “Over the long run, income growth has been the most important driver of gold demand. And we believe the outlook here is encouraging.”

We couldn’t agree more. Gold has historically helped to improve portfolio risk-adjusted returns. It is a mainstream asset as liquid as other financial securities and its correlation to major asset classes has been low in both expansionary and recessionary periods, as the WGC points out.

I’ve always advocated a 10 percent weighting in gold in a portfolio - with 5 percent in bullion or jewelry and 5 percent in gold stocks or well managed gold mutual funds and ETFs. If you’re interested to learn more about gold, I encourage you to sign up for my blog, Frank Talk. Happy Investing!

 

 

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The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, often abbreviated as the S&P 500, or just the S&P, is an American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ. The S&P 500 index components and their weightings are determined by S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDXY) tracks the performance of a basket of 10 leading global currencies versus the U.S. Dollar.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index distributed by Bloomberg Indexes. The index was originally launched in 1998 as the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (DJ-AIGCI) and renamed to Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index (DJ-UBSCI) in 2009, when UBS acquired the index from AIG.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index measures US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, nominal debt issued by the US Treasury.

The Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex is a single commodity subindex of the Bloomberg CI composed of futures contracts on crude oil. It reflects the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia and Far East) Index measures the performance of the leading stocks in 21 developed countries outside North America.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.

Share “Another Positive Year Ahead for Gold, Says the World Gold Council”

Net Asset Value
as of 04/25/2018

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $5.96 -0.02 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $7.42 -0.07 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $4.23 -0.05 China Region Fund USCOX $11.14 No Change Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $7.16 -0.08 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $25.15 0.16 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $19.41 0.01 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.19 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $1.99 No Change