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Please note: The Frank Talk articles listed below contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate fund performance page.

What Ballooning Corporate Debt Means for Investors
April 8, 2019

Frank Homles speaking at the Money Map Press Black Diamond Conference in Delray Beach Florida

Last week I was in Delray Beach, Florida, where I presented at Money Map Press’ Black Diamond Conference.

What I love about this event, and others like it, is that it gives investors a chance not only to hear from their favorite newsletter writers but also speak with them face-to-face on a wide range of topics, from metals and mining to bitcoin and cannabis, and so much more. Among the most sought-after presenters this year were early-stage tech investor Michael Robinson, who I interviewed last year; Money Map Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald; and Sprott CEO Rick Rule.

In case you didn’t get the chance to attend, I’ll be sure to cover the highlights in the coming days.

Right now I want to share with you the latest from Metals Focus. The London-based commodities research group just released the 2019 edition of its widely-read Gold Focus report, and the big news is that global gold demand will climb to its highest level in four years. The uptick is expected to be driven by an increase in jewelry fabrication, with India, China and Italy leading consumption higher.

Global gold demand forecast to edge marginally higher in 2019
click to enlarge

Interest in gold jewelry has indeed improved in recent years, a phenomenon we’ve noticed with the success of such companies as Menē. Late last year, Google inquiries for “gold jewelry” hit an 11-year high.

But there’s more to the story than the Love Trade. Metals Focus analysts see gold also benefiting from a more dovish Federal Reserve and fears of a global economic slowdown.

“We expect U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) to slow in 2019 and 2020,” comments Metals Focus Director Nikos Kavalis. “This reflects a natural tapering, following two very strong years, the fading of windfall gains from the late-2017 tax reforms and, eventually, also the impact of trade wars on U.S. consumer spending.”

Are We Headed for Another Recession?

Few people know the risks in today’s economy and marketplace as much as David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Canadian wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates. For years he’s educated investors with his popular “Breakfast with Dave” newsletter, which you can subscribe to here. He’s also a regular contributor to the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post.

Considered by many to be a Wall Street permabear, Rosenberg successfully predicted the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Now he’s predicting another recession to make landfall as soon as the second half of this year. Why? In short, the Fed has been too aggressive tightening liquidity at a time when corporate debt is at an all-time high. What’s more, the Trump administration has already enacted fiscal stimulus in the form of tax reform, which has historically been reserved for times of economic turmoil, not expansion.

“How are we going to stimulate fiscal policy [in the event of a recession]?” he asked recently on CNBC’s Trading Nation. “We already did that at the peak of the cycle. We don’t have the fiscal ammunition.”

Corporate Debt Nearing Half of U.S. GDP

Rosenberg recently spoke at the CFA Societies Texas Investor Summit in San Antonio, U.S. Global Investors’ hometown, where he laid out his thought process.

Since the last recession, nonfinancial corporate debt has ballooned to more than $9 trillion as of November 2018, which is nearly half of U.S. GDP. As you can see below, each recession going back to the mid-1980s coincided with elevated debt-to-GDP levels—most notably the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the 2000 dotcom bubble and the early 90s slowdown.

Non-financial corporate debt to GDP has exceeded record levels
click to enlarge

Through 2023, as much as $4.88 trillion of this debt is scheduled to mature. And because of higher rates, many companies are increasingly having difficulty making interest payments on their debt, which is growing faster than the U.S. economy, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

On top of that, the very fastest-growing type of debt is riskier BBB-rated bonds—just one step up from “junk.” This is literally the junkiest corporate bond environment we’ve ever seen.

Combine this with tighter monetary policy, and it could be a recipe for trouble in the coming months.

During his presentation, Rosenberg reiterated the saying that business cycles don’t die of old age, but rather they’re killed by the Fed. Take a look at the chart below. It shows commercial and industrial loan delinquency rates, overlaid by fed fund rates shifted 10 quarters ahead. What it suggests is that roughly 10 quarters after the Fed began to tighten, loan delinquencies surged.

Corporate loan delinquencies have surged following rate hike cycles
click to enlarge

The good news is that it’s been more than 10 quarters since the Fed started lifting rates in December 2015, and so far we haven’t seen a noticeable increase in delinquencies.

Could this be because the rate hikes this cycle have been small relative to those in past cycles? Not likely, says Rosenberg. According to him, it’s not the amount that matters so much as the change. Whether rates go up 2.50 percent or only 0.25 percent, it can still be a shock on the financial system.

To be clear, I’m not predicting a recession any time soon, only passing along Rosenberg’s expert opinion.

But if his position makes sense to you, it might be time to consider your options on how to prepare. Rosenberg recommends overweighting fixed-income and REITs (real estate investment trusts).

I would add gold to that mix, as it’s performed well as a store of value during economic pullbacks. As always, I recommend a 10 percent weight in gold, with 5 percent in gold bars, coins and jewelry, and 5 percent in gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

Concerned about Brexit? Read my thoughts on how it could impact gold prices by clicking here!

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

A bond’s credit quality is determined by private independent rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. Credit quality designations range from high (AAA to AA) to medium (A to BBB) to low (BB, B, CCC, CC to C).

Investing in real estate securities involves risks including the potential loss of principal resulting from changes in property value, interest rates, taxes and changes in regulatory requirements.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 12/31/2018: Menē Inc.

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Retire Happy With Dollar Cost Averaging
April 1, 2019

Gold has failed to move above $1,400 since 2013

Last week I had the pleasure of attending and presenting at the Oxford Club’s 21st Annual Investment U Conference in St. Petersburg, Florida. As many as 400 accredited investors were in attendance from all over the U.S.

The main topic was the current retirement crisis, which I wrote about earlier last month. Baby boomers are reaching retirement in worse financial shape than the previous generation—a phenomenon we haven’t seen in at least six decades.

So how can we reverse course and assure future generations are financially prepared to leave the workforce?

A common theme running through many of the Oxford presentations was to start investing early and to take advantage of compound interest.

This is so important. Albert Einstein once described compounding as “the eighth wonder of the world.”

If you’re reading this and have kids or grandkids, I urge you to help them on the path to participating in the market now. It doesn’t require as much capital as you might think—especially if you’re investing with dollar cost averaging.

What it does require, though, is discipline. Put a long-term plan in place and let compound interest work its magic.

I’ve shared this chart with you before, but I think it’s worth sharing again. It shows a hypothetical initial investment of $1,000 in an S&P 500 Index fund in March 2009. Ten years later, after regular monthly contributions of only $100, the value of that initial investment grew at an annualized 12.96 percent to more than $26,385. Investors who had the discipline to stick with this plan and reinvest the dividends were rewarded handsomely.

The Power of Dollar Cost Averaging
click to enlarge

Remember, the illustration above includes only the period during the 10-year bull market, and there’s no guarantee that the good times will continue.

But with dollar cost averaging, some of the guesswork involved in market timing is eliminated. Our own plan, which we call the ABC Investment Plan, automatically lets you purchase more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when they’re high.

The ABC Plan doesn’t assure a profit, of course, or fully protect against losses. No investment plan can guarantee those things.

Nevertheless, because it requires only a small initial investment, I think it’s a great way to get a young person started in today’s market. The Plan is also helpful for people who might be worried about their retirement goals but unsure how to build their wealth.

It’s never too late to start participating. Download an application today by clicking here.

The 10 Percent Golden Rule

I’d like to address a question I received over email last week from an investor. He asked for clarification on my 10 Percent Golden Rule. As you know, I often recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in physical gold and 5 percent in gold mining stocks.

“What does ‘weighting in gold’ actually mean?” he wrote. After explaining that he already owns a number of gold and silver coins, he asked how he knows if he has enough.

First of all, I think these are excellent questions.

The best way to show what I mean is with a visual. Below is a hypothetical portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate, options, hard assets and more. To keep things simple, let’s say the total portfolio value is $1 million.

Using the 10 Percent Gold Rule, your total gold allocation would be valued at approximately $100,000, with $50,000 in physical gold (coins, bars and 24-karat jewelry) and the remaining $50,000 in gold mining equities, including mutual funds and ETFs.

the 10 percent golden rule in action
click to enlarge

Of course, asset prices are always fluctuating, which is why I also remind investors to rebalance their portfolios at least once a year. If gold shoots up in price, it might make sense to take some profits. If it plunges in price, consider it a buying opportunity.

The Fear Trade Is Heating Up Gold Mining Stocks

performance of an institutional portfolio with or without gold

As a reminder, there are a number of important reasons why the 10 percent rule might make sense.

For one, a certain amount of gold has been shown to improve a portfolio’s Sharpe ratio, or its risk-adjusted returns relative to its peers, based on standard deviation. The higher the ratio is over its peers, the better the risk-adjusted returns. One recent study found that an institutional portfolio with a 6 percent weighting in gold had a higher Sharpe ratio than one without any gold exposure.

This means that volatility was reduced without hurting returns.

Last week I gave you another reason.

Yields are sliding all over the world right now on concerns that the global economy is slowing. Here in the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 2.41 percent, after President Donald Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Moore, said he was in favor of cutting interest rates half a percentage point.

With regard to our discussion here, gold has historically traded inversely to bond yields. When yields have fallen, the yellow metal has shined.

Gold mining stocks have behaved similarly. Take a look below. What the chart shows is the inverse relationship between gold mining stocks and the real 10-year Treasury yield—“real” meaning inflation-adjusted. As you can see, gold stocks soared in the summer of 2016 as yields deteriorated and finally dipped below zero.

the 10 percent golden rule in action
click to enlarge

Today, yields are similarly on a downward path, boosting gold stocks. From its 2019 low on January 22, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is up more than 14 percent.

For more on gold stocks, watch my recent interview with Kitco News’ Daniela Cambone, live from the New York studio, by clicking here!

 

A program of regular investing doesn’t assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. You should evaluate your ability to continue in such a program in view of the possibility that you may have to redeem fund shares in periods of declining share prices as well as in periods of rising prices.

Sharpe ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted performance calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate from the rate of return for a portfolio and dividing the result by the standard deviation of the portfolio returns.

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver.  The index benchmark value was 500.0 at the close of trading on December 20, 2002.

There is no guarantee that the issuers of any securities will declare dividends in the future or that, if declared, will remain at current levels or increase over time.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

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7 Market-Moving Charts Investors Need to See
March 25, 2019

Stocks erased their weekly gains and bond yields fell on Friday as investors reacted to a number of economic developments. Chief among them were a Treasury yield curve inversion, the first since before the financial crisis, and continued slowdown in the pace of U.S. manufacturing expansion.

I had my eye on several other market-moving news items, some of which I share with you below.

1. Palladium in Overbought Territory

The price of palladium briefly topped $1,600 an ounce for the first time ever last week on a widening supply-demand imbalance. Markets sent the metal higher on news that Russia, the world’s number one producer of palladium, was set to ban the export of scrap metal, which would have the effect of squeezing global supply even further. This comes a week after car manufacturers signaled an increase in demand for palladium, which is used in the production of pollution-scrubbing catalytic converters.

As such, the palladium-to-gold ratio—or the measure of how many ounces of gold can be purchased with one ounce of palladium—is now at an historical high.

Palladium historically overbought relative to gold
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2. Nickel Also Performing Well on Supply Deficit Concerns

Palladium is the best performing metal so far in 2019, up nearly 27 percent. In second place is nickel, which is facing supply issues of its own. Global demand for nickel in 2019 is estimated at around 2.4 million metric tons, two thirds of which will be processed in stainless steel mills, mostly in China, according to Reuters.

Palladium is the best performing metal so far in 2019
click to enlarge

3. Markets Grapple With First Yield Inversion Since Before the Financial Crisis

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to a more-than-one-year low last week on a dovish Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that interest rates were likely to stay unchanged throughout 2019 as officials assess the impact of a potential global economic slowdown. “Just as strong global growth was a tailwind,” Powell said, “weaker global growth can be a headwind to our economy.”

10 year treasury yields dipped to a 15 month low after wednesdays fed meeting
click to enlarge

On Friday, the yield curve between the three-month and 10-year yield inverted, or turned negative, for the first time since before the financial crisis. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, it’s worth noting that such an inversion has preceded every U.S. recession over the last 60 years.

4. Traders Don’t See Rates Changing

Even before Wednesday’s Fed announcement, a surging number of futures traders were betting that rates would stay unchanged, or even be lowered, between now and the end of 2019. Three quarters of traders this month were positive that rates would stay pat in the 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent range, up sharply from 26 percent of traders 12 months earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The probability that rates will be hiked by the end of the year are now at 0 percent.

Traders betting interest rates will hold or be lowered by the end of the year
click to enlarge

5. Pace of Manufacturing Growth Continues to Slow

The preliminary U.S. purchasing manager’s index (PMI), released on Friday, shows manufacturing growth slowing to a 21-month low, from 53 in February to 52.5 in March. “Softer business activity growth reflected more subdued demand conditions in March, with new work rising at the weakest pace since April 2017,” the IHS Markit report reads.

US manufacturing expansion estimated to fall to a 21 month low in March
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6. A “Substantial” Amount of Tariffs

Markets also appear to be coming to terms with the realization that tariffs could be the norm for a lot longer than anticipated. Last week President Donald Trump said that the U.S. would keep trade barriers on China-made imports in place for a “substantial period of time”—even after a deal is eventually reached.

The U.S. currently has tariffs on approximately $265 billion worth of Chinese goods. This resulted in an eye-opening $2.7 billion tax increase on American businesses in November 2018 alone, according to Census Bureau data. Companies, as you might expect, have largely passed these extra costs on to consumers.

And then there’s lost export revenue and jobs to consider. According to a report this month by IHS Markit, tariffs are estimated to have a negative impact on the U.S. economy over the next 10 years. Ramifications include suppression of hundreds of thousands of American jobs, a dramatic reduction in consumers’ real spending power and a loss in gross output in a number of industries. 

Estimated loss in gross output bny industry due to tariffs
click to enlarge

7. Fed Decides the Government Shutdown Wasn’t as Bad as All That

The good news is that on Friday the Atlanta Fed revised up its estimate for real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter. It now stands at 1.2 percent quarter-over-quarter, up from an anemic 0.4 percent on March 13.

Palladium historically overbought relative to gold
click to enlarge

The new estimate still trails the Blue Chip consensus of top U.S. business economists. But it appears that Fed policymakers have determined that the government shutdown between December 22 and January 25 didn’t impact the U.S. economy as negatively as previously thought.

For even more timely market commentary, subscribe to our award-winning Investor Alert!

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

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Gold Glimmers as the Pool of Negative-Yielding Debt Surges
March 18, 2019

Gold Glimmers as the Pool of Negative-Yielding Debt Surges

It was a tragic week, to say the least. It began with a fluke Ethiopian Airlines crash, which led to the grounding of all Boeing 737 MAX 8 jets worldwide, and ended with a hateful terrorist attack in Christchurch, New Zealand. On behalf of everyone at U.S. Global Investors, I want to extend my deepest sympathies to all those who were affected.

I’ll have more to say on airlines in a moment.

For now, I want to share with you a tweet by Lisa Abramowicz, a reporter for Bloomberg Radio and TV who often comments on the “fear” market.

“The pool of negative yielding debt has risen to a new post-2017 high of $9.2 trillion,” she writes. “Mind boggling at a time when the global economy is supposedly still recovering.”

Since Lisa tweeted this last Wednesday, the value of negative-yielding bonds has ticked up even more, to $9.32 trillion. This is still below the 2016 high of $12.2 trillion, but, as Lisa said, mind-boggling nonetheless. It also indicates that investors fear global economic growth is slowing.

The Pool of Negative-Yielding Bonds Has Climbed to a New High
click to enlarge

The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond is back in negative territory, trading at negative 3 basis points (bps) today, while Germany’s was trading at a low, low 8 bps.

As I’ve explained to you before, low to negative-yielding debt has historically been constructive for gold prices. The yellow metal doesn’t have a yield, but in the past it’s been a tried-and-true store of value when other safe haven assets, such as government bonds, stopped paying you anything. In the case of Japanese bonds right now, investors are actually paying the government—and that’s before you factor in inflation.

This is just one of many reasons why I recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in physical bullion and jewelry, the other 5 percent in high-quality gold stocks and funds. Remember to rebalance at least once a year.

For more on gold, watch my interview last week with Daniela Cambone, live from Kitco’s New York studio! Click here!  

Aircraft Are Safer, Easier to Fly

Back to the Ethiopian flight. I’m confident we’ll soon learn what malfunctioned in the 737 MAX—both last week and in October during Indonesia’s Lion Air flight—so that accidents like this may never happen again.

Having said that, I think it’s important to keep in mind that commercial air travel today has never been safer in its approximately 100-year history. In 2017, the safest year for aviation on record, not a single life was lost in a commercial plane crash, despite more than 4 billion people around the world taking to the skies on scheduled passenger flights. You would be hard-pressed to find another major global industry, one that operates 24/7, with such an impressive safety track record.

Commercial Air Travel Has Never Been Safer
click to enlarge

This is all largely thanks to continuous improvements in aviation technology. Over the decades, aircraft have progressively gotten safer and easier to fly, according to one aeronautics professor at MIT.

“The automation systems that we have on airplanes have demonstrably made airplanes safer,” R. John Hansman, director of MIT’s International Center for Air Transportation, told Boston’s WBUR radio station last week.

And the technological advancements continue today, with artificial intelligence (AI) and the internet of things (IoT) already starting to change the way we fly.

Consider Aireon. Founded in 2011, the aerospace tech firm is responsible for developing a next-generation airline tracking and surveillance system that has the capacity to measure every aircraft’s speed, heading, altitude and position—all in real-time. Using as many as 66 satellites, Aireon’s team gathers data broadcast by tiny transponders, which all U.S. and European planes will be required to carry by next year.

Aireon diagram

It was the company’s data, in fact, that ultimately convinced the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to join the rest of the world in temporarily grounding the 737 MAX.

“Take a Ride on the Airline Stocks,” Writes the National Bank of Canada

In light of the accident, a number of research houses and brokerage firms released notes to investors reassuring them that Boeing’s troubles should have only minimal impact on the airline industry as a whole.

Shares of Boeing, the largest company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by market cap, surged as much as 2.5 percent on Friday after it was announced that the jet manufacturer plans to roll out a software update for the MAX 8 and 9 within the next 10 days—much sooner than initially expected.

Analysts at Raymond James point out that the “737 MAX 8/9 aircraft are still a small part of overall fleet for most U.S. airlines, which in off-peak travel season can likely be covered by higher utilization of existing fleet or delays in certain aircraft retirements.”

Vertical Research’s Darryl Genovesi, an expert in airline revenue, says that he believes the 737 MAX grounding will have an “immaterial” effect on U.S. airlines’ first-quarter earnings per share (EPS). And if the grounding is extended into the second quarter, or into the second half of the year, we may even see higher EPS due to a supply demand imbalance.

Genovesi writes that Vertical’s models indicate that, in the event of an extended grounding, “system RASM [revenue per available seat mile] would increase by ~200 bps… This would be ~3 percent accretive to second-quarter EPS, on average, across the group including a ~9 percent EPS boost for Alaska Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines and low-single-digit boost for American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Continental and Allegiant Air, partially offset by a low-single-digit EPS reduction for Southwest Airlines.”

Southwest has the largest number of 737 MAX 8s in the world, with a reported 34 planes in its fleet.

Air Canada the Leading Carrier in the Country
click to enlarge

Finally, looking at the Canadian market, the National Bank of Canada says that both Air Canada and WestJet Airlines “remain constructive despite the recent turbulence.”

“The negative news has not changed the overall positive trend in [Air Canada’s] stock,” analyst Dennis Mark writes.

Like what you read? Get even more award-winning market analysis by subscribing to our Investor Alert. Click here!

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content.

The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt Market Value Index measures the stock of debt with yields below zero issued by governments, companies and mortgage providers around the world which are members of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index.

Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company's profit allocated to each share of common stock. Earnings per share serve as an indicator of a company's profitability.

A basis point one hundredth of one percent, used chiefly in expressing differences of interest rates.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (12/31/2018): The Boeing Co., Alaska Air Group Inc., American Airlines Group Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., United Continental Holdings Inc., Southwest Airlines Co., Spirit Airlines Inc., Allegiant Travel Co., JetBlue Airways Corp., Air Canada.

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Getting In on the Ground Floor With World-Class Companies
March 4, 2019

AI Will Add $15 Trillion to the Global Economy by 2030

Last week I had the privilege of attending BMO's 28th Annual Global Metals & Mining Conference in Hollywood, Florida, along with portfolio manager and precious metals expert Ralph Aldis. The BMO conference is an epic event that brings together the “who’s who” of mining and natural resources—think Pierre Lassonde, Robert Friedland, Marin Katusa and many, many more.

Sentiment was cautiously bullish on gold and precious metals, while mega-mergers and takeovers were top of mind for many attendees and presenters. I’m not exaggerating when I say that the news of Barrick Gold’s bid for rival Newmont Mining dominated the buzz. In case you’re not aware, Barrick is currently seeking to persuade shareholders to support its $18 billion hostile takeover of the Colorado-based miner.

Top 10 Patent Applications in the AI Field

This latest round of industry consolidation follows the Barrick-Randgold Resources merger, announced back in September, as well as Newmont’s own deal with Goldcorp in January. If Barrick is successful in its bid, however, Newmont must break off the $10 billion deal with Goldcorp.

Even before all of this began, Barrick was the world’s largest gold producer, with a market cap of nearly $21 billion. If it manages to acquire Newmont, it would become an untouchable behemoth.

Here’s an illustration of just how big the resultant company would be: World gold output stood at 158 million ounces last year, and of that, Barrick, Randgold and Newmont produced a combined 10.85 million ounces. Those three companies alone, then, were responsible for one out of every 14 ounces or so worldwide.

I have so much more to say on this, but for now, I invite you to watch my interview with Kitco News’ Daniela Cambone, direct from the BMO conference. Click here to see it!

A Record of Early-Stage Investing

The metals and mining industry could be undergoing some dramatic changes in the near future. It’s important for investors to get in on the ground floor when this happens.

Back in 2017, we were seed investors in HIVE Blockchain Technologies, the world’s first publicly traded cryptocurrency mining firm. We also recognized the value of the disruptive jewelry manufacturer Mene, and were able to make a private investment months before it was listed on the TSX Venture Exchange. More recently, I introduced you to GoldSpot Discoveries, the very first company to harness the power of artificial intelligence (AI) in the mineral exploration process. We made a sizeable allocation in the company, and I was named chairman of the board.

Goldspot Discoveries tweet

We’re not new to any of this, of course. I’m proud of our track record of getting in early with a number of now-phenomenally successful companies. We were among the original financers of American Barrick Resources, before it changed its name to Barrick Gold in 1995. Ditto for Wheaton River Minerals, now known as Wheaton Precious Metals—one of our favorite royalty and streaming companies.

This is just one among many reasons why I believe active management still plays an essential role in investors’ portfolios. It also brings to mind the concept of “synchronicity.”

Be Mindful of Meaningful Connections

The word “synchronicity” was first coined by the Swiss psychoanalyst Carl Jung, a disciple of Sigmund Freud. It says that events are meaningful coincidences if they occur with no causal connection yet seem to be meaningfully related.

Jung conceived of synchronicity after he observed a curious incident. A client described to him a dream she had the previous night of a golden scarab—a very expensive piece of jewelry. The very next day, while meeting with the same client, an insect struck his office window. Upon closer inspection, Jung saw that it was a scarab beetle, which closely resembled the piece of jewelry from his client’s dream. The insect is very rare in Jung’s native Switzerland. “Here is your scarab,” he reportedly told her.

Goldspot Discoveries tweet

Photo by: Chrumps, CC BY-SA 3.0

The two events—the dream and the insect encounter—cannot reasonably be called causally connected. But they’re meaningfully related.

Synchronicity was one of many topics we discussed this year at Harvard Business School, where I go every year along with as many as 150 CEOs from dozens of different countries.

The theme really rang true for me and many of my fellow CEOs. Many of us believe that luck, ambition and positive thinking all play a role in our lives and business decisions, and have helped us get where we are today.

I feel grateful and blessed every day that I’m in a position to find solutions, to stay curious to learn and improve and to find opportunities—opportunities such as HIVE, Mene, GoldSpot and many more.

Feeling left out? Make sure you subscribe to the U.S. Global Investors YouTube channel by clicking here!

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 12/31/2018: Barrick Gold Corp., Newmont Mining Corp., Mene Inc., Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

Frank Holmes was appointed non-executive chairman of the Board of Directors of HIVE Blockchain Technologies. Both Mr. Holmes and U.S. Global Investors own shares of HIVE, directly and indirectly. Investing in crypto-coins or tokens is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE and the market is largely unregulated.

Frank Holmes was appointed chairman of the Board of Directors of GoldSpot Discoveries. Both Mr. Holmes and U.S. Global Investors own shares of GoldSpot.

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Net Asset Value
as of 04/18/2019

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $4.63 -0.01 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $6.79 -0.10 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $2.60 -0.05 China Region Fund USCOX $9.22 0.02 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $6.78 -0.02 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $24.85 -0.04 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $17.59 0.02 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.21 0.01 U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change