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Ralph Aldis: Gold Mining Success Lies in Proper Capital Allocation
April 9, 2015

“The proper use of capital allocation is to maximize long-term value per share.”

More sunshine, less stormy wheather

That’s according to Ralph Aldis, USGI’s resident gold expert and, since 2001, portfolio manager of our two precious metals funds—Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX).

In a recent Gold Report interview with Kevin Michael Grace, Ralph expresses his thoughts on what’s moving gold prices today and also singles out some of his favorite companies in the gold, silver and royalty spaces.

More important, however, Ralph argues that for gold mining companies to succeed, they need to practice prudent capital allocation and know the proper value of their assets.

Below are some highlights from the interview:

Q: The price of gold is flirting with a five-year low. Do you attribute this solely to the strength of the U.S. dollar, or are there other factors at work?

Gold Flirting with Five-Year Lows as U.S. Dollar Remains Strong

A: There are other factors. Most important is the strength of the equity markets. Looking at a six-year window, we have seen, for the third time in the last hundred years, the highest returns for such a period. This happened before in 1929 and 1999. These phenomenal returns have been fueled not by fundamentals but rather by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is trying to jumpstart the economy.

Best Six-Year Performance in the S&P 500 Since 1929 and 1999

All this has taken people's eyes off gold, but it won't go on forever.

Q: How do you see the mining industry adjusting to lower gold prices?

A: I look at the income statements from all the mining companies and calculate their breakeven point. Right now, it is about $1,149 per ounce. The forecasted average 2015 gold price remains about $1,200 an ounce. If the gold price continues to fall, companies will adjust. Some projects won't be built, but that is good because those are marginal projects.

About 40 CEOs in the mining industry have lost their jobs in the past couple of years. The new generation of mining CEOs is focused more on profit than growth. They know that even if the gold price falls more, the suppliers to them must drop their prices. If the gold price goes $100 per ounce lower, the smart companies will survive. Meanwhile, gold miners now benefit from lower energy prices, while the stronger U.S. dollar has been very positive for Canadian and Australian miners.

Q: Why do you believe gold stocks can still deliver favorable returns?

A: Because of the mindset of some of these new CEOs. One company doing the right things is Klondex Mines. It was up 29 percent in 2013, while the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF was down 61 percent. In 2014, Klondex was up 21 percent, while the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF was down 23 percent.

Klondex Mines Has Consitently Smoked the Market Vector Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Klondex is my favorite junior producer anywhere. Some people might say it has a short-life resource statement, but the recent discoveries at Fire Creek are not yet in the resource statement. And the free cash flow it generates will pay for its exploration program at Midas. I expect more discoveries from Klondex and a bigger resource statement. Its very robust ore body will allow it to produce gold at even lower prices, should the market demand that. I talk to its management team, and they understand capital allocation.

Q: Could you explain the “Five Principles of Capital Allocation” and how they pertain to mining, given that mining companies typically have no revenues for years after their founding?

A: These five principles are the work of a Credit Suisse writer, Michael Mauboussin. They apply to some companies in the exploration and development phase but obviously more so to producers.

Klondex purchased the Midas Mine and Mill Complex, located in Nevada, fromNewmont Mining in February
  1. The first principle is "Zero-Based Capital Allocation." This means, for instance, that you don't give your exploration department $20 million this year solely because they received $20 million last year. Companies need a strategy to determine the proper amount of capital spending.

  2. The second principle is "Fund Strategies, Not Projects." In other words, capital allocation is not about assessing and approving projects; it is about assessing and approving strategies and then determining the projects that support those strategies. It is a common mistake for explorers to continue to push a project forward—particularly if it is its only project—even though it lacks the potential for great returns.

    Randgold Resources is a good example of the proper approach. When it evaluates a project, it's looking for grade sufficiently high that it can produce a good margin at a $1,000 pit shell or even an $800 pit shell. Restricting your return calculation to the pit shell is more conservative, as you are only including those ounces contained within the mine's engineering plan.

  3. Number three is "No Capital Rationing." Typically, miners believe that capital is scarce but free. They believe that profits are free money, or if they're raising equity, they sometimes don't seem to care enough about dilution. Properly speaking, capital is plentiful but expensive. Profits need to be spent in a manner that results in future profitability. And equity financing is only plentiful if you have a good project.

  4. Number four is "Zero Tolerance for Bad Growth." In other words, don't throw good money after bad. Barrick Gold Corp. fell into that trap with its Pascua-Lama project in Argentina. Long before its price tag reached $8.5 billion, the company should have thought hard about whether it would ever generate good returns. Mining companies should always seek to upgrade their portfolios.

  5. Number five is "Know the Value of Assets and Be Ready to Take Action to Create Value." So many people in the mining industry don't know the value of their assets. We value companies based on their resource statements, and we get a very high correlation to where these stocks trade. But we constantly see companies decide to spend, for example, $1.8 billion on a project that the market values at only $800 million. It makes no sense to spend that much because similar projects could be acquired for less capital.

Q: What's your favorite gold producer elsewhere in the world?

A: I like Mandalay Resources Corp. Its management is very experienced in rescuing assets that have been mismanaged. Mandalay has turned around the Cerro Bayo silver-gold mine in Chile and the Costerfield gold-antimony mine in Australia. Last year, it bought the Björkdal gold mine in Sweden from Elgin Mining, and I think Mandalay will turn that around too.

Management owns a lot of stock. Mandalay pays a healthy dividend: 5.4 percent. The market has not yet completely woken up yet to this stock. We still think it's easily a 100 percent gain. It's one of our top five holdings.

Q: What's your favorite royalty company?

A: Osisko Gold Royalties probably has the safest royalties. It has a lot of room to grow but not so much as to draw the attention of Franco-Nevada Corp., Royal Gold Inc. or Silver Wheaton.

One of the advantages Osisko Gold Royalties has is that its assets are not dependent on other commodities. Franco-Nevada has oil exposure, and maybe oil prices don't go up very soon. Royal Gold has base metal exposure in some of its assets, and if prices of those were to drop tremendously, some of its assets could be shuttered. Osisko doesn't have those worries.

 

Read the full interview!

 

 

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

 

Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors.

There is no guarantee that the issuers of any securities will declare dividends in the future or that, if declared, will remain at current levels or increase over time.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund and World Precious Minerals Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2014: Barrick Gold Corp 0.00%, Elgin Mining 0.00%, Falco Resources Ltd (World Precious Minerals 0.01%), Franco-Nevada Corp (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 6.97%, World Precious Minerals Fund 1.32%), Klondex Mines Ltd (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 10.00%, World Precious Minerals Fund 9.78%), Mandalay Resources Corp (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 3.38%, World Precious Minerals Fund 2.28%), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF 0.00%, Newmont Mining Corp. (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 1.05%, World Precious Minerals Fund 0.22%), Osisko Gold Corp 0.00%, Randgold Resources Ltd. (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 2.30%, World Precious Minerals Fund 1.43%), Royal Gold Inc. (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 5.99%, World Precious Minerals Fund 1.51%), Silver Wheaton Corp (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 1.36%, World Precious Minerals Fund 0.45%), Virginia Mines, Inc. (Gold and Precious Metals Fund 1.14%, World Precious Minerals Fund 10.35%) .

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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China to Take the Reins in Funding Regional Infrastructure Projects
March 31, 2015

This Tuesday marked the last day that countries could submit their applications to become founding members of the new China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). As of this writing, a little over 40 nations have either already been approved or have applied for membership, including strong U.S. allies such as Britain, Germany and Australia.

Notable absentees, as you can see below, are the U.S. and Japan.

Countries that Have Joined or Applied to Join Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

Conceived to serve as an alternative to Western-dominated sources of credit such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank, the AIIB will aim to invest in regional infrastructure projects ranging from energy to transportation to telecommunications.

The new development bank, which is expected to launch later this year, will have $100 billion in capital to begin with—a massive mountain of money, to be sure, but it falls far short of the estimated trillions that will be necessary to fund Asia’s astronomical infrastructure demand.

China’s creation of its own global bank highlights the country’s desire to wield more control over funding such projects. It currently commands only 5.17 percent of the vote in the World Bank and 3.81 percent in the IMF.

China is aiming for its currency to become part of the Special Drawing Right (SDR), the International Monetary Fund's composite currency unit.

And so the currency wars continue to heat up. China’s move demonstrates its ongoing efforts to establish the yuan as a global reserve currency on par with the U.S. dollar. It’s no secret that the country wants the yuan to become part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Right (SDR), a composite currency unit that now consists of the dollar, Japanese yen, British pound sterling and euro. The founding of the AIIB might very well bring the country closer to realizing these goals.

A-Shares Headed Higher

Chinese stocks are currently having a moment. Mainland A-shares, as measured by the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, are up an incredible 92 percent for the 12-month period on the back of strong recent performance in the financial, property and infrastructure industries.

There’s generally a high correlation between the A-share market and China and Hong Kong, but the A-shares have outperformed by a wide margin over the past year.

Shanghai Composite's Breakout Continues

Last Wednesday the index fell a slight 0.8 percent, ending a 10-day rally that contributed 12 percent, its longest winning streak in 23 years.

Chinese policymakers have recently eased quota controls for foreign investors in mainland stocks and bonds, as they promote the yuan to be accepted as an SDR. The potential for greater inflows into the market should help the Shanghai Composite head even higher.

Our China Region Fund (USCOX) has participated in this rally through the Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund and a closed-end fund.

Read more about China:

  • China Consumes More Gold Than the World Produces
    “What’s not so well-known—but just as amazing—is that China’s supply of the precious metal per capita is actually low compared to neighboring Asian countries such as Taiwan and Singapore.”
  • China Just Crossed a Landmark Threshold
    “One of the most headline-worthy developments is China’s $16.3-billion infrastructure initiative intended to revive trading routes along the centuries-old Silk Road. Thousands of miles of railways, roads and pipelines will link Beijing to major markets all over Asia, Africa and Europe.”
  • China Wants to Conduct the World’s High-Speed Rail Market
    “In recent months, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has emerged as the nation’s top salesman for what he calls the ‘New Silk Road’—miles upon miles of high-speed transportation connecting all corners of the world. His plan might very well become one of China’s most lucrative exports and culturally significant contributions to the world: fast, efficient and reliable railways.”

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio.

The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) is an index of all stocks that trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the China Region Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2014: Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. 1.52%.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

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Why This Airline Just Landed in the S&P 500 Index
March 23, 2015

For the first time in its 84-year history, American Airlines was cleared for landing in the S&P 500 Index.

Joining rivals Southwest Airlines and Delta Air Lines, the once-beleaguered carrier is the newest member of the prestigious club for the nation’s largest companies by market capitalization.

Not bad for a company that, only four years ago, found itself in bankruptcy court.

S&P 500 Economic Sectors

But in a classic Cinderella-story transformation, American succeeded at charting a new course for itself. In 2013 it merged with U.S. Airways, making it the biggest airline group in the world. The company now has a market cap of nearly $37 billion and controls 627 active jets in its fleet.

American’s ascension is a perfect reflection of the now-robust airline industry as a whole. As recently as a decade ago, about 70 percent of U.S. carriers were operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Fast forward to 2014, and the industry saw its most profitable year ever. To generate more revenue and save money, airlines have aggressively implemented new policies in the last few years, including adding additional seats on aircraft, streamlining operations and focusing on fuel-efficiency measures.

American Airlines stock is already up more than 51 percent for the 12-month period, compared to the S&P 500’s 14 percent, and is currently trading close to all-time highs. Its inclusion in the S&P 500 should further help its stock price climb higher, as many funds that track the index will now be compelled to purchase shares.

American Airlines Joins Southwest and Delta in the S&P 500 Index
click to enlarge

Low oil prices have benefited American more so than some of its competitors, as the carrier didn’t buy derivatives on fuel and was therefore not locked into higher prices before they began to tumble last summer.

Many analysts predict that the next airline to join the S&P could be United Continental.

Dollar Overbought, Gold Oversold

In a recent Frank Talk I revisited the relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold. For the ninth straight month, the greenback has strengthened, which has weighed heavily on the yellow metal. The inverse relationship between the two is key to understanding the Fear Trade.

As I discussed in the blog post, the dollar is extended—the greatest standard deviation in a decade—and it appears due for a correction.

Gold vs Dollar 3-Month Percent Change Oscillator
click to enlarge

Conversely, the gold selloff is overdone and looking for a rally.

Next week we’ll be looking out for the latest consumer price index (CPI), or inflationary number. It’s important to be aware of this number because the inflation rate has a large influence on gold prices.

The weekend before last I presented at the Investment U conference in St. Petersburg, Florida, where I had the pleasure of hearing Oxford Club’s natural resources strategist, Sean Brodrick, speak. He reminded his audience why so many investors see gold as a safe haven, saying that, unlike the dollar, “gold will never go to zero.”

As always, I advocate that 10 percent of your portfolio consist of gold: 5 percent in bullion and 5 percent in gold stocks, then rebalance every year.

Munis Still Make Sense

Safety is part of the reason why the municipal bond market is today worth $3.65 trillion. To determine just how safe munis have been for investors, Moody’s looked at more than 54,000 municipal bond issuers and 5,600 high-yield corporate bond issuers between 1970 and 2011. What they found is that only 71 muni issuers defaulted, whereas corporate bond defaults for the period rose to more than 1,800.

What’s more, even lower-rated munis have historically had better credit quality than high-rated corporate bonds. In a similar study, Moody’s reported that since 1970, “adequate” Baa-rated munis have had a default rate of 0.30 percent. But of the corporate bonds that received the highest, “extremely strong” rating, 0.50 percent failed to meet their obligations.

Munis had a stellar 2014, delivering positive returns all 12 months of the year. This helped the asset class outperform both corporate bonds and high-yield corporate bonds.

Munis Delivered Better Returns Than Corporate Bonds in 2014
click to enlarge

 

A Victoria's Secret in the Toronto Pearson International AirportRightfully so, many bond investors are concerned of what might happen to their holdings when the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates, which could happen sometime this year. When interest rates rise, bond prices drop. For this reason, the bond market reacted positively to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s announcement last Wednesday that a rate hike wouldn’t occur just yet. Short-term munis are where investors want to be when rates inevitably increase.

Recently we’ve also seen a spike in bond yields. John Derrick, portfolio manager of our Near-Term Tax Free Fund (NEARX), has prudently put fund assets to work, using the following oscillator, among other tools, to determine the most opportune times to deploy capital.

Note that we’re using the two-year Treasury as a proxy for interest rate moves. Munis have tended to track these macro trends.

ROlling 100 Day Percent Change Oscillator: 2-Year Treasury Yield
click to enlarge

NEARX has delivered 20 straight years of positive growth in a variety of interest rate environments. Out of 25,000 equity and bond funds, only 30 have done this. Since 1999—the first year he began managing the fund—John has achieved this rare feat by picking only investment-grade munis with short-term maturities. Short-term bonds are less sensitive to rate increases than longer-term bonds that are locked into rates for greater periods of time.

In Various Interes Rate Environments, NEARX Has Had 20 Straight Years of Positive Returns
click to enlarge

To learn more about what municipal bonds can do for your portfolio, check out our latest infographic. Remember to share with your friends!

Why Investing in Short-Term Municipal Bonds Makes Sense Now

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Total Annualized Returns as of 12/31/2014
  One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense Ratio Expense Cap
Near-Term Tax Free Fund 3.07% 2.64% 2.98% 1.21% 0.45%

Expense ratio as stated in the most recent prospectus. The expense cap is a contractual limit through December 31, 2015, for the Near-Term Tax Free Fund, on total fund operating expenses (exclusive of acquired fund fees and expenses, extraordinary expenses, taxes, brokerage commissions and interest). Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.

Bond funds are subject to interest-rate risk; their value declines as interest rates rise. Tax-exempt income is federal income tax free. A portion of this income may be subject to state and local income taxes, and if applicable, may subject certain investors to the Alternative Minimum Tax as well. The Near-Term Tax Free Fund may invest up to 20% of its assets in securities that pay taxable interest. Income or fund distributions attributable to capital gains are usually subject to both state and federal income taxes. The Near-Term Tax Free Fund may be exposed to risks related to a concentration of investments in a particular state or geographic area. These investments present risks resulting from changes in economic conditions of the region or issuer.

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals.  The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns.

The S&P Municipal Bond Index is a broad, market value-weighted index that seeks to measure the performance of the U.S. municipal bond market.

The Bloomberg USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based, market-value weighted index engineered to measure publicly issued non-investment grade USD fixed-rate, taxable, corporate bonds. To be included in the index, a security must have a minimum par amount of 250MM.

The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based market-value weighted index engineered to measure the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable, corporate bond market. It includes USD-denominated securities publicly issued by U.S. and non-U.S. corporate issuers. To be included in the index, a security must have a minimum par amount of 250MM.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Near-Term Tax Free Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2014: American Airlines 0.00%, Southwest Airlines Co. 0.00%, Delta Air Lines, Inc. 0.00%, United Continental Holdings, Inc. 0.00%.

Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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What the Federal Reserve and the Fear Trade Do for Gold
March 19, 2015

Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made it clear (again) that interest rates would not be raised until inflation gains more steam. With current inflation rates negative for the first time since 2009, and with the U.S. dollar index at an 11-year high, we can probably expect near-record-low interest rates for some time longer.

With the Dollar index at an 11-yeah high, gold prices are under a lot of pressure

Along with major stock indices, gold prices immediately spiked at Yellen’s news, rising nearly 2 percent, from $1,151 to $1,172. That’s the largest one-day move we’ve seen from the yellow metal in at least two months.

It’s also a prime example of gold’s Fear Trade, which occurs when investors buy gold out of fear of war or concern over changes in government policy.

As I’ve frequently discussed, one of gold’s main drivers is the strength of the U.S. dollar. The two have an historical inverse relationship, as you can see below.

Strong Dollar Weighs on Gold

In September 2011, when gold hit its all-time high of $1,921, the dollar index was at a low, low 73. Today, with the dollar having recently broken above 100, the yellow metal sits under a lot of pressure. However, I’m pleased at how well it’s held up compared to the early 1980s, when gold plunged 65 percent from its peak of $850 per ounce as the U.S. currency began to strengthen.

We’re seeing the opposite effect in the eurozone as well as other regions around the world. In the last 11 months, the euro has slipped 24 percent. Many analysts, in fact, expect the euro to fall below the dollar for the first time.

When priced in this weakening currency, gold has climbed to a two-year high.

Gold Prices in Euro Terms Strengthens as the Currency Falls

Inflation consumes the returns on your five-year treasury bond As I write in last year’s special gold report, “How Government Policies Affect Gold’s Fear Trade”:

One of the strongest drivers of the Fear Trade in gold is real interest rates. Whenever a country has negative-to-low real rates of return, which means the inflationary rate (CPI) is greater than the current interest rate, gold tends to rise in that country’s currency.

 

To illustrate this point, take a look at the current five-year Treasury yield and subtract from it the consumer price index (CPI), or the inflationary number. You get either a positive or negative real interest rate.

When that number is negative, gold has tended to be strong. And when it’s positive, gold has in the past been weak.

This month, real interest rates in the U.S. have turned massively positive, putting additional downward pressure on the yellow metal.

HOw real interest rates drive gold

When you look at the yield on a five-year Treasury bond in March 2013, you see that it was 0.88 percent. Take away 1.5 percent inflation, and investors were getting a negative real return of 0.6 percent. This made gold a much more attractive and competitive asset to invest in. March 2013, by the way, was the last time we saw gold above $1,600 per ounce.

Because inflation is in negative territory right now, returns on the five-year Treasury are higher than they’ve been in several quarters. Compared to many other government bonds worldwide, the U.S. five-year Treasury is actually one of the very few whose yields are positive, which tarnishes gold’s appeal somewhat as an investment.

The following oscillator for the five-year period gives you another way to look at the strong inverse relationship between the five-year Treasury bond and gold. As if locked in a synchronized dance, each asset class swings when the other one sways, and vice versa.

HOw real interest rates drive gold

This is why it’s so important to manage expectations.

As Ralph Aldis, portfolio manager of our two precious metals funds, said in our most recent Shareholder Report:

You need to use gold for what it’s best at: portfolio diversification… You have to be a bit of contrarian. Buy it when everybody hates it, sell it when everybody loves it. Our suggestion is to have 5 to 10 percent of your portfolio in gold or gold stocks and rebalance once a year. You might also get some additional benefits by rebalancing quarterly. That’s like playing chess with the market as opposed to rolling craps.

 

Discover U.S. Global Investors’ two gold funds:

The Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX)The Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) is the first no-load gold mutual fund in the U.S. and seeks opportunity in gold mining, investing in proven gold-producing companies.

 

 

The World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) The World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) gives investors increased exposure to junior and intermediate mining companies involved in precious minerals such as gold, silver, platinum, palladium and diamonds for added growth potential.

 

 

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors.

The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns.

Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

Diversification does not protect an investor from market risks and does not assure a profit.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

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Who’s Who of Gold Investing
March 10, 2015

Last week I was honored and humbled to be included in American Bullion’s list of “11 powerful people and their insights on gold.” Among the investment giants and thought leaders who also appear on the list are publishing executive Steve Forbes, Mad Money’s Jim Cramer, former Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Good company, indeed.

gold investing experts

All of my fellow gold investors offer scintillating insight into gold investing, much of which I’ve often shared myself—most notably Greenspan’s comment that “gold has special properties that no other currency, with the possible exception of silver, can claim.”

Gold’s value, after all, is not dependent on the credit guarantee of any world government and is universally accepted as a form of payment. If this were not the case, why else would global central banks bother to hold the precious metal? Why else would we be seeing them repatriating their gold reserves from foreign institutions?

Or consider hedge fund manager Kyle Bass’s keen observation that unlike paper money, “they can’t print any more [gold]. They can mine some more, but they can’t print it at the rate central banks are printing.”

Whereas there’s only a finite amount of the yellow metal available to be exhumed from the earth, global central banks are printing money at a furious rate as if it were imaginary Monopoly paper.

The Goldwatcher John Katz Frank Holmes In my book The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing—which American Bullion quotes from—I write that “bullion is for value investors and mining stocks are for growth investors.” At U.S. Global Investors, we’re growth investors. 

But I’ve always advocated that you should own 10 percent gold in your portfolio: 5 percent in bullion or gold jewelry and 5 percent in mining stocks, then rebalance every year.

Although depressed gold prices have put a squeeze on miners lately, there are still quality, well-managed companies out there expanding their profit margins and paying dividends. Many of them we own in our Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX), including Klondex Mines, Royal Gold, Goldcorp and Franco-Nevada.

On another note, be sure to register for today’s online video event hosted by Casey Research, Going Vertical: Deep-Value Stocks to Own in a Rising Gold Market. I’ll be joined by seven other top players in the precious metals market, including Chairman Doug Casey, Franco-Nevada chairman Pierre Lassonde, Pretium Resources president Bob Quartermain and Casey Research’s chief metals and mining strategist Louis James. The event starts at 2:00 p.m. EST, but if you can’t make it, the replay will be available soon afterward.

Also, stay current with the latest news and trends in the world of gold by watching my weekly web program, Gold Game Film, hosted by Kitco’s Daniela Cambone. This Monday we discussed the main drivers of the metal right now, including the strong U.S. jobs data and the start of the Indian wedding season, which begins in mid-April.

What's gold's touchdown pass this week? Watch Kitco's Gold Game Film with Frank Holmes.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors.

There is no guarantee that the issuers of any securities will declare dividends in the future or that, if declared, will remain at current levels or increase over time.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund and World Precious Minerals Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2014: Franco-Nevada Corp. 6.97% in Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 1.32% in World Precious Minerals Fund; Goldcorp, Inc. 1.03% in Gold and Precious Metals Fund; Klondex Mines Ltd. 10.00% in Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 9.78% in World Precious Minerals Fund; Pretium Resources, Inc. 3.35% in World Precious Minerals Fund; Royal Gold, Inc. 5.99% in Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 1.51% in World Precious Minerals Fund.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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Net Asset Value
as of 04/24/2015

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $6.07 0.03 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $5.62 -0.03 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $4.65 -0.06 China Region Fund USCOX $9.95 No Change Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $6.85 0.04 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $28.60 -0.01 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $21.10 -0.06 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.25 No Change China Region Fund USCOX $9.95 No Change