First Quarter 2018

For the March quarter, the Global Resources Fund underperformed its benchmark, the S&P Global Natural Resources Index, by 180 basis points. Weak performance was due primarily to an overweight position in junior natural resource companies. See complete fund performance here. 

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Strengths

  • The fund’s overweight position in industrials and renewable energy sectors resulted in positive contributors to its performance.
  • The fund’s superior stock selection in the industrial metals and paper and forest sectors had a positive contribution to the fund relative to its benchmark this quarter.
  • Holdings that were among the fund’s best contributors to performance included Evraz, Dongyue and SolarEdge Technologies.

Weaknesses

  • An overweight position in junior natural resource stocks and consumer companies had the largest negative impact to the fund this quarter.
  • The fund’s inferior stock selection in the energy space had a negative impact to the fund’s performance.
  • PentaNova Energy, Taseko Mines and VERBIO Vereinigte Bioenergie were among the fund’s most significant laggards this quarter.

Opportunities

  • Inflation is back and commodities will benefit, according to JPMorgan. “Inflation has come and it should be good for commodities,” the bank said in a report. Among signs of the shift, JPMorgan cited stronger U.S. wage numbers as well as recent core consumer price inflation. Bets on gains in precious metals, copper, zinc and nickel will probably result in the highest returns over one year, the bank said.
  • Global oil demand will likely grow faster than expected this year, partly offsetting a surge in U.S. shale production and keeping the market in balance, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday. The IEA predicted the world’s appetite for crude would increase by 1.5 million barrels a day to reach 99.3 million barrels a day in 2018, an upward revision of 90,000 barrels.
  • China’s Commerce Ministry removed anti-dumping duties on U.S. chicken imports, ending a multi-year long dispute between the world’s largest economies. The removal of these duties has been read by macroeconomic analysts as a willing sign and gesture of good will to maintain trade integrity, at a time when President Donald Trump has threatened to introduce major steel and aluminum duties against China and others, a move that could trigger a protracted global trade war.

Threats

  • Since its November monthly oil market report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised upwards its forecast of 2018 non-OPEC supply by almost 1 million barrels per day (b/d), from 58.54 million b/d to 59.53 million b/d. In its latest report, OPEC warned that non-OPEC supply "is now expected to grow at a faster pace" than initially expected, thus risking yet another oversupply imbalance in the global crude market.
  • China’s factory-gate inflation is anticipated to slow down after strong rallies in 2016 and 2017. The reading, which is linked to increases in purchasing manager’s index (PMI) and industrial production, and a key factor in China reflationary trend, may indicate that the recovery in commodity demand may be about to stall.
  • Inflation is creeping into commodity producers’ income statements. After warnings from a slew of Australian metals and mining giants, which expect inflation pressures to pressure margins this year, now its turn for the oil and gas sector. Carrizo Oil & Gas, a sizeable U.S. shale producer, joined Pioneer Natural Resources and Occidental Petroleum executives in warning that oilfield service costs will rise by double digits this year as fracking crews and equipment are on high demand.

The S&P Global Natural Resources Index includes 90 of the largest publicly-traded companies in natural resources and commodities businesses that meet specific investability requirements, offering investors diversified, liquid and investable equity exposure across 3 primary commodity-related sectors: Agribusiness, Energy, and Metals & Mining.

The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A basis point, or bp, is a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01% (0.0001).

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Global Resources Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 3/31/2018: Evraz PLC 1.82%, Dongyue Group Ltd. 1.63%, SolarEdge Technologies Inc. 0.00%, PentaNova Energy Corp. 1.28%, Taseko Mines Ltd. 0.67%, VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG 0.58%, Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. 0.00%, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. 0.00%, Occidental Petroleum Corp. 0.00%.

Standard Disclosure

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, Distributor. U.S. Global Investors is the investment adviser.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in specific industries, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.

 

Net Asset Value
as of 05/25/2018

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $5.98 -0.09 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $7.62 -0.06 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $4.11 -0.06 China Region Fund USCOX $11.54 -0.03 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $6.92 -0.05 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $25.46 -0.07 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $19.74 0.08 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.19 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change